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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is online now
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:11 AM   #46
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Side note on Shields:

I was looking at his PitchFx data to try and quantify the claims that he changed his approach after 2010. The difference was pretty astounding. He has always been a fastball/change heavy pitcher, but...

From 2010 to 2011/12, Shields drastically reduces the use of his two-seam fastball and cutter by about 60 percent while ramping up his curve and slider. As a result, his harder offerings - which got blistered in 2010 - become more effective.

It's not unusual for a guy around 30 to change his approach, but that's pretty drastic.

Oh, and his average fastball velocity has actually ticked up since he changed this approach. So even though he just turned 31, that's trending positively (unusual for pitchers this age).
From what I read, Shields probably has one of the best changeups in the game, and he relies on it heavily. That might explain some of his durability.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:24 AM   #47
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Trade analysis from Deadspin:
http://deadspin.com/5967520/the-roya...m-with-windows

Quote:
In November of 2007, the Rays were on the edge of contention, though not everyone knew it: their regular-season record (like the 2012 Royals') didn't suggest a team about to take the next step. Those Rays, like the current Royals, had hitters: what they needed was pitching and defense. And so they dealt from a position of strength to address a weakness, trading Delmon Young and Brendan Harris (and Jason Pridie) to the Twins for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett (and Eduardo Morlan). Young, like Myers, had been the top prospect in baseball as a projected right fielder, and he'd finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting that season. Also like Myers, he'd just turned 22.
Quote:
Joe Sheehan, taking Tampa Bay's side, wrote this:

"With this deal, the Rays have shifted from collecting talent to forming it into a baseball team, and this trade shows how seriously they take the process. Trading a player with the perceived value of Young is never easy, but with it they've leveraged a gap between that perceived value and what he actually is to make their team better."
Quote:
as R.J. Anderson pointed out recently, it's somewhat worrisome that Myers is one of the only prospects of his caliber to be traded before ever taking the field for the team that drafted him.
Quote:
If Myers is the next Young—consensus top prospect turned replacement-level player—then the Royals will have out-Raysed the Rays, trading a flawed young player at the peak of his value, when his potential still seemed likely to pan out.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:26 AM
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:26 AM   #48
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Another year, joy.
Just saw the trade, double joy.

DM is all-in on it. I guess I can be excited.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:28 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
From what I read, Shields probably has one of the best changeups in the game, and he relies on it heavily. That might explain some of his durability.
It's fantastic. He's made even Bautista look bad on it on occasion.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:29 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by ROYC75 View Post
Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout
I love Alex Gordon. But he's on this list for 2006. I watched him play AAA ball for Omaha in 2010 because he sucked so bad they sent him back down. He did not bat up to his expectations until 2011. Would you want to wait five years for Myers? I'm all for taking a proven MLB pitcher now for a "should be a star" outfielder.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:30 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
It's fantastic. He's made even Bautista look bad on it on occasion.
Even Bautista???????? Holy shit!
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:31 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy View Post
Even Bautista???????? Holy shit!
Yes, you might know him as the 2nd best hitter in baseball over the last three seasons behind Miguel Cabrera. Doesn't look bad at the plate too often, but that's what Shields does to hitters with that pitch.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:35 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
KC Connection hits on the head: Player A is Jay Bruce.

I was looking at the list of BA POTY over the past 20 years, and trying to break them into categories (Superstar/First division/injury bust/bust/too early to tell) and Jay Bruce was one that was hard to slot.

So I looked at his minor league numbers the year he was named POTY, and was shocked at the similarities.

If I were forced to lay a bet on it, I'd guess Myers' major league numbers look a LOT like Bruce's - except with a few less HRs (playing in the Trop for 81 games vs. playing in that bandbox in Cincinnati).

I started asking myself... If I were a Reds fan, and Cincy had traded Bruce for two years of (INSERT SOMEONE SIMILAR TO JAMES SHIELDS) before the 2008 season, how would I feel about it now (assuming that guy pitched well for my team).

Took me all the way into acceptance mode.
Yeah, he's a pretty good comparable it seems. Bruce's defense isn't so impressive and that restricts his value. What's Myers' like?
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:38 AM   #54
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Bob Dutton ‏@Royals_Report

#Royals sign LHP George Sherrill and RHP Dan Wheeler to minor-league deals in addition to OF Willy Taveras.
Lefties bat .186 against Sherrill and righties bat .216 against Wheeler.

Can we play them like this?

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Old 12-11-2012, 11:54 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by sedated View Post
If Myers is the next Young—consensus top prospect turned replacement-level player—then the Royals will have out-Raysed the Rays, trading a flawed young player at the peak of his value, when his potential still seemed likely to pan out.
hopefully this is the case

The Royals could have/should have had Myers up late in the season last year and they didn't.

Is that Frenchy love or Myers value would probably drop?


i don't know but now i hope Myers is a huge bust
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:04 PM   #56
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This guy thinks the trade was crap, here's his take .........

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...de-aint-pretty


A Royal Blunder
Why it made no sense for the Kansas City Royals to trade star prospect Wil Myers
By Rany Jazayerli on December 10, 2012
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:05 PM   #57
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damn. i wanted to make it on page 1.

let's go royals. let's go.
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:09 PM   #58
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:13 PM   #59
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...s-shields.html

The Tigers offered Avisail Garcia and several prospects for Shields, and they probably would have gotten him if we didn't come in with Myers.
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Old 12-11-2012, 12:22 PM   #60
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