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Old 07-20-2012, 10:41 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Fiscal Cliff Approacheth

In an effort to make this thread sticky-worthy, I am going to update this OP to keep casual glancers informed.

This post is the official one-stop shopping of the key points/developments of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Far as I understand, the fiscal cliff:

1. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for everybody else.
3. Slashes defense spending by something like $500 billion.
4. Slashes domestic programs like the NIH, Head Start, and medicine/drug care for the poor by $500 billion.

The new idea is for Democrats to allow the cliff to hit, then immediately introduce a bill that would bring 2, 4, and some of 3 back. But not 1.

Here is a chart detailing exactly what the fiscal cliff is going to do, financially:

Spoiler!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
New CBO projection: if the fiscal cliff hits, we are in another recession, and lose two million jobs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87L0JV20120822
The poor would be hurt by the fiscal cliff:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Overall, if the tax breaks from the 2009 stimulus are allowed to expire—the EITC and Child Tax Credit expansions, along with American Opportunity Credit for college tuition—the poorest 20 percent of Americans would see their taxes go up by $209 on average, reducing their after-tax income by 1.9 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.
As would the middle class:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, more than half of all married couples will owe an additional tax of around $4,000 unless Congress acts. And more than a third of families with children will fall subject to the AMT, with parents of three or more children facing an extra tax of $4,700.

Among married couples with at least two children and adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000, the center estimates that 84 percent will face a significantly higher tax bill this year because of the AMT.
There seems to be some consensus between the parties that substantial revenues want to be raised. Boehner and the GOP hopes that's through limiting tax deductions rather than tax raises.

Obama's opening offer, essentially:

Quote:
  • Allow the Bush tax cuts on high earners to expire. $849 billion
  • Limit itemized deductions to 28 percent, close some loopholes and deductions on high earners, eliminate tax breaks for oil and gas companies, eliminate the carried interest loophole, plus a few other items. $584 billion
  • Create a special "Buffett Rule" tax rate for millionaires. $47 billion
  • Restore the estate tax to 2009 levels. $143 billion
  • Limit corporate income shifting to low-tax countries. $148 billion
  • Other miscellaneous tax increases and reductions. About -$200 billion
  • Total: $1.6 trillion

Last edited by Direckshun; 11-14-2012 at 09:54 AM..
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:37 PM   #616
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Obama's gotta find someone new to blame now that blaming "problems inheretied from the previous administration" is pretty much off the table. It is truer now than ever but Obama can't use it.
Well when you continue and expand upon virtually all of the previous administrations policies, it takes a pretty ignorant crowd to continue to swallow the” it’s Bush’s fault” excuse after an entire term as President.
Seriously if it is all Bush’s fault why keep doing the same things? Now they have proposed upping the other guy’s taxes but, if someone can explain to me how taking money from the private sector and giving it to the government is going to grow the economy, I’m all ears.
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Old 12-20-2012, 02:03 PM   #617
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http://www.politico.com/story/2012/1...int-85342.html

Fiscal cliff: The lowest point
By CARRIE BUDOFF BROWN, JAKE SHERMAN and JOHN BRESNAHAN
12/19/12 8:50 PM EST

President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner opened their negotiations last month by pledging to work constructively to avert the fiscal cliff.

But on Wednesday, the two men at the center of the talks traded blame, not counteroffers.

Obama and Boehner hit their lowest point yet during a day of sharp words and legislative confusion — and the outlook significantly darkened for reaching a deficit-reduction deal before the new year. The talks are stalled, and Boehner is scrambling to muscle his own bill through the House — a proposal the president has already promised to veto.

With 12 days to go until the deadline, the president faulted Boehner for wasting time on a bill that will never reach the Oval Office. Senior administration officials accused the speaker of incompetence by pursuing a short-sighted tactic that makes it harder to reach a deal and brings the country closer to the cliff.


Boehner responded with a curt statement from the Capitol, where he told the president to “get serious soon,” or else Obama “can be responsible for the largest tax increase in American history.” Boehner then turned and walked out.

The dueling public statements signaled that little has fundamentally changed between Obama and Boehner, who have been here before. They got close to a grand bargain on the debt and deficit in 2011 only to see it crumble amid partisan pressures. Both felt burned.

On Wednesday, it looked like history had a good shot at repeating itself, as the tenuous progress they made over the past week seemed to unravel.

Obama, betraying some of those bruised feelings, said Republicans just need to “take the deal.”

“They keep on finding ways to say ‘no’ as opposed to finding ways to say ‘yes,’” Obama said. “And I don’t know how much of that just has to do with, you know, it is very hard for them to say yes to me. But, you know, at some point, you know, they’ve got to take me out of it and think about their voters and think about what’s best for the country.”

Boehner’s Plan B bill is going nowhere, Obama added.

He’s likely to get an assist on that point from congressional Democratic leaders.

Senate Democrats haven’t settled on a final strategy, but the most likely option is they don’t even take the House bill up — if it passes — and pound the speaker for refusing to cut a deal with Obama. And House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) believes she may not lose any of her members, making Boehner’s job more difficult.

“I haven’t seen her work a vote this hard since health care” in 2010, said one top Democratic aide.

The distance between Obama and Boehner on Wednesday was particularly striking on Capitol Hill, where the speaker spent Wednesday working to pass his fallback plan to raise tax rates on income above $1 million.

Boehner took his pitch to Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) office, where he spoke to a meeting of deputy whips — the small group of lawmakers tasked with taking stock of how Republicans are voting and with trying to convince them to support leadership priorities.

It was a rare appearance in front of this group — several lawmakers said Boehner has attended fewer than five times before, including once during the 2011 debt limit showdown — and underscored his concern about avoiding a defeat on his own bill. The Republican vote-counting team was predicting a razor-thin margin.


Boehner told the lawmakers that it’s imperative his fallback plan gets passed. But he also told them he had no idea what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) would do with the bill if it reaches the Senate. Although such little time remains for reaching a deal, Senate and House leaders aren’t even speaking.

Boehner, according to sources, warned that if the House fails to pass a bill, the Senate could force the lower chamber to vote on a bill that extends tax cuts for income under $250,000 — a far cry from the $1 million-and-below threshold Boehner’s allies are seeking.

With the stakes so high, Boehner made a personal plea to his colleagues. The Ohio Republican worked pockets of lawmakers, touting the support his bill has received from conservative stalwarts such the anti-tax lobbyist Grover Norquist and FreedomWorks. But two other key groups — the Heritage Action for America and the Club for Growth — came out against it.

Concerned about opposition to the bill among Republicans, Boehner reworked his approach.

In a bid to win over defense hawks, Boehner will also push a second vote on a bill from House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) that replaces part of the across-the-board spending cuts known as the sequester. The Ryan bill, passed by the House in May with no Democratic votes, would replace Pentagon cuts with spending reductions for domestic agencies. It is aimed at addressing concerns that Boehner’s bill does nothing to stop the sequester from taking effect.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) will manage the “sequestration replacement” bill, his office said. “This bill replaces the sequester for one year with responsible spending cuts, that protect our national security, and provides an additional $200 billion in savings over ten years,” said Rory Cooper, Cantor’s spokesman. “This is yet another step House Republicans have taken this year to address the real fiscal problem in Washington, which is spending.”

Boehner also dropped a vote on a bill that would extend tax rates for income $250,000 and below — a Democratic proposal that passed the Senate in July. With the vote tally on his own proposal so close, Boehner and other top Republicans hoped to keep their strategy and message simple.

But even if his bill passes the House, Boehner’s position with the White House has been significantly weakened by Senate Republicans, many of whom question his strategy.

“I’m still looking forward to a plan that would seriously reduce entitlement programs, and I’m hopeful the speaker and the president can still come up with one,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) when asked whether he backed the Plan B.

Conservatives are already lining up against Boehner’s plan.

“We’re forgetting the government doesn’t need any more money, we have a spending problem,” said Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). “The question is do we just cave to political pressure and do the wrong thing for America? I don’t think Republicans are going to do that.”

Despite the angry rhetoric, both sides said they hold out hope that talks will resume — and they’ll be able to get a deal before the new year.

But time really is short.

Congress isn’t expected to stay in session through Christmas. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is planning to travel to Hawaii for the funeral Sunday of the late Sen. Daniel Inouye. The House could adjourn after taking up Boehner’s plan.

If nothing happens until after the new year and the markets tank, some Republican lawmakers privately concede that they will have to settle for smaller tax cuts. Others lawmakers now say that it might take a January shock to jolt Obama and Boehner into an agreement.

It just might take, these lawmakers say, higher tax rates, lower take-home pay and shrinking savings accounts for the president and lawmakers to get something done.

“That’s a bad scenario, but obviously one that looks more and more likely that it’s going to happen,” said Rep. Patrick Tiberi, an Ohio Republican close to Boehner. “I don’t think anything good comes of that.”
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Old 12-20-2012, 02:10 PM   #618
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Its all just Kabuki until Jan 1st. Then they will start making a deal.
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Old 12-20-2012, 06:11 PM   #619
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We are going over the cliff. Obama wants to. He will veto anything that comes up, it won't be good enough. Reid won't take up a budget, so do you think anything will get done? They don't want anything done, they want a dictatorship.

They want your guns too.
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Old 12-20-2012, 07:28 PM   #620
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
We are going over the cliff. Obama wants to. He will veto anything that comes up, it won't be good enough. Reid won't take up a budget, so do you think anything will get done? They don't want anything done, they want a dictatorship.

They want your guns too.
The good news though is Holder's people won't be getting the EIC check this year.
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Old 12-20-2012, 07:29 PM   #621
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
We are going over the cliff. Obama wants to. He will veto anything that comes up, it won't be good enough. Reid won't take up a budget, so do you think anything will get done? They don't want anything done, they want a dictatorship.

They want your guns too.

You're an idiot.
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Old 12-20-2012, 07:34 PM   #622
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Boehner appears to be a complete bonehead. He can't even push this his own chamber his own plan which he and the rest of the Republican leadership have wasted at least three full days on. While the train is heading for the cliff, they're in the back of the train jerking off. Pathetic display of "public service."

If you disagree with the president that's fine - argue it out in public. Keep meeting. Show some talent. Instead it's bozo the clown time. Sam Rayburn, Tip o'neill, john McCormack, and the other great Speakers are shaking their heads looking down at this pathetic display.
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Last edited by Amnorix; 12-20-2012 at 08:21 PM..
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Old 12-20-2012, 07:44 PM   #623
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Both er appears to be a complete bonehead. He can't even push this his own chamber his own plan which he and the rest of the Republican leadership have wasted at least three full days on. While the train is heading for the cliff, they're in the back of the train jerking off. Pathetic display of "public service."

If you disagree with the president that's fine - argue it out in public. Keep meeting. Show some talent. Instead it's bozo the clown time. Sam Rayburn, Tip o'neill, john McCormack, and the other great Speakers are shaking their heads looking down at this pathetic display.
I'd like to hear how you would defend Obama in this mess. None of his policies on this make sense. None.

His tax increases don't do shit. His spending cuts don't do shit. He wants to eliminate the debt limit. He wants to cripple our economy with an idiotic energy policy. He doesn't want to face the entitlement problem.

You think Boehnor is a bonehead?
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Old 12-20-2012, 08:17 PM   #624
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He had to PULL BACK Plan B because he DIDN'T HAVE THE SUPPORT.















Talk about a completely unforced error. That is ****ing gold.

This is a party that doesn't know what they want, doesn't want to negotiate with Obama, and don't even really want to embrace their own ****ing ideas.

****ing gold.

And we're headed to the cliff.
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Old 12-20-2012, 08:25 PM   #625
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
I'd like to hear how you would defend Obama in this mess. None of his policies on this make sense. None.

His tax increases don't do shit. His spending cuts don't do shit. He wants to eliminate the debt limit. He wants to cripple our economy with an idiotic energy policy. He doesn't want to face the entitlement problem.

You think Boehnor is a bonehead?
I think both sides are basically ignoring the serious structural problems we have. I don't find the Republican approach, which attempts to ignore the fact that they control may one house of Congres and lost the election fairly decisively, to be any better than Obama's. the concession on $1,000,000+ of income is a good one. At long last they are being ever so slightly realistic.

Hopefully this is just posturing and the sides will come up with something solid before we go over the "cliff", but it seems to me that rabid partisanship tends to make the perfect the mortal enemy of the good, much to the detriment of the country.
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Old 12-20-2012, 08:27 PM   #626
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Talk about a completely unforced error. That is ****ing gold.

This is a party that doesn't know what they want, doesn't want to negotiate with Obama, and don't even really want to embrace their own ****ing ideas.

****ing gold.

And we're headed to the cliff.

Yeah, that's why I'm referring to him as a bonehead. Perhaps new leadership in the House is in order if he is so hopelessly out of touch with his own caucus. Good speakers don't let their own caucus humiliate them for chrissakes...
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Old 12-20-2012, 09:23 PM   #627
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plan which he and the rest of the Republican leadership have wasted at least three full days on. .


yeah 'cos Obastard sure didn't wait until the last minute.

I can't wait for January first. I can't wait for your taxes to shoot through the roof.
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Old 12-20-2012, 09:55 PM   #628
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yeah 'cos Obastard sure didn't wait until the last minute.

I can't wait for January first. I can't wait for your taxes to shoot through the roof.
Do you really think that is how it's going to work?
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Old 12-20-2012, 09:59 PM   #629
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Do you really think that is how it's going to work?
You moonbats cried about the "bush tax cuts" for how many years? OK, well you got you want. They will expire.

And when you take it up the ass, you'll blame...

boner.



Whatever.You reap what you sow. No skin off my ass.
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Old 12-20-2012, 10:02 PM   #630
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
You moonbats cried about the "bush tax cuts" for how many years? OK, well you got you want. They will expire.

And when you take it up the ass, you'll blame...

boner.



Whatever.You reap what you sow. No skin off my ass.
Nice crazy speech. How did you address my question? Do you think that the tax rates are going to magically jump to astronomical heights on January 1st?
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