The Fiscal Cliff Approacheth

[Direckshun]

In an effort to make this thread sticky-worthy, I am going to update this OP to keep casual glancers informed.

This post is the official one-stop shopping of the key points/developments of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Far as I understand, the fiscal cliff:

1. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for everybody else.
3. Slashes defense spending by something like $500 billion.
4. Slashes domestic programs like the NIH, Head Start, and medicine/drug care for the poor by $500 billion.

The new idea is for Democrats to allow the cliff to hit, then immediately introduce a bill that would bring 2, 4, and some of 3 back. But not 1.

Here is a chart detailing exactly what the fiscal cliff is going to do, financially:

Spoiler!

Originally Posted by Direckshun

New CBO projection: if the fiscal cliff hits, we are in another recession, and lose two million jobs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87L0JV20120822

The poor would be hurt by the fiscal cliff:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Overall, if the tax breaks from the 2009 stimulus are allowed to expire—the EITC and Child Tax Credit expansions, along with American Opportunity Credit for college tuition—the poorest 20 percent of Americans would see their taxes go up by $209 on average, reducing their after-tax income by 1.9 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.

As would the middle class:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, more than half of all married couples will owe an additional tax of around $4,000 unless Congress acts. And more than a third of families with children will fall subject to the AMT, with parents of three or more children facing an extra tax of $4,700.

Among married couples with at least two children and adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000, the center estimates that 84 percent will face a significantly higher tax bill this year because of the AMT.

There seems to be some consensus between the parties that substantial revenues want to be raised. Boehner and the GOP hopes that's through limiting tax deductions rather than tax raises.

Obama's opening offer, essentially:

• Allow the Bush tax cuts on high earners to expire. $849 billion
• Limit itemized deductions to 28 percent, close some loopholes and deductions on high earners, eliminate tax breaks for oil and gas companies, eliminate the carried interest loophole, plus a few other items. $584 billion
• Create a special "Buffett Rule" tax rate for millionaires. $47 billion
• Restore the estate tax to 2009 levels. $143 billion
• Limit corporate income shifting to low-tax countries. $148 billion
• Other miscellaneous tax increases and reductions. About -$200 billion
• Total: $1.6 trillion

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by J Diddy

Do you think that the tax rates are going to magically jump to astronomical heights on January 1st?

The Bush tax cuts will expire, yes. And then next year, all of barky's obamacare taxes kick in.

[Direckshun]

This is ****ing nuts.

The GOP is prepared to pull its starting quarterback halfway through the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-until-plan-c/

Will Boehner’s speakership survive until Plan C?
Posted by Ezra Klein
on December 20, 2012 at 8:39 pm

Has there been a House speaker in modern American history with less control over his members than John Boehner?

Over the past three days, Boehner has focused all attention on “Plan B”: an effort to strengthen his hand in negotiations with President Obama by passing backup legislation that would extend the Bush tax cuts for all income under $1 million.

Tonight, Boehner lost that vote. In a dramatic turn of events on the House floor, he pulled the legislation. In a statement released moments ago, he said, “The House did not take up the tax measure today because it did not have sufficient support from our members to pass.” Boehner lost.

Plan A, which was a deal with Obama, was put on ice, many believe, because Boehner couldn’t wrangle the votes to pass anything Obama would sign. Plan B failed because Boehner couldn’t wrangle the Republican votes to pass something Obama had sworn he wouldn’t sign.

The failure of Plan B proved something important: Boehner doesn’t have enough Republican support to pass any bill that increases taxes — even one meant to block a larger tax increase — without a significant number of Democrats. The House has now adjourned until after Christmas, but it’s clear now what Plan C is going to have to be: Boehner is going to need to accept the simple reality that if he’s to be a successful speaker, he’s going to need to begin passing legislation with Democratic votes.

There’s an asterisk there, though: It’s not entirely clear whether Boehner will be the speaker of the House a month from today. The vote to elect the next speaker is on Jan. 3. To win, you need an absolute majority of the House, not a plurality. Even a hopeless conservative challenge that attracts only a handful of Republican votes could deny Boehner the speakership until a consensus candidate emerged. Tonight’s vote makes that challenge more likely.

A significant number of Boehner’s members clearly don’t trust his strategic instincts, they don’t feel personally bound to support him, they clearly disagree with his belief that tax rates must rise as part of a deal, and they, along with many other Republicans, must be humiliated after the shenanigans on the House floor this evening. Worse, they know that Boehner knows he’ll need Democratic support to get a budget deal done. That means “a cave,” at least from the perspective of the conservative bloc, is certain. That, too, will make a change of leadership appealing.

If a conservative spoiler runs, he or she could very possibly deny Boehner the 218 votes he needs to become speaker, clearing the way for a more moderate candidate like Eric Cantor to unite the party. It’s hard to say exactly how likely that is. But it’s likelier than it was, say, this morning.

[Comrade Crapski]

Good. No EIC check for Holder's people.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

yeah 'cos Obastard sure didn't wait until the last minute.

I can't wait for January first. I can't wait for your taxes to shoot through the roof.

You're a strange, sad little man.

[Comrade Crapski]

Don't take it out on me because your taxes are going through the roof, dumbass.

[tmax63]

I say give the Dems what they want. Off the cliff, raise taxes across the board and let the Dems own it all. When the economy goes even further down the sh!tter and millions more people start suffering then maybe the voters who re-elected Obama and all the other politicians who have spent this country into disaster over the last 25 years will understand what they did and realize what needs to be done to get the fiscal house in order. No Pain No Gain.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by tmax63

I say give the Dems what they want. Off the cliff, raise taxes across the board and let the Dems own it all. When the economy goes even further down the sh!tter and millions more people start suffering then maybe the voters who re-elected Obama and all the other politicians who have spent this country into disaster over the last 25 years will understand what they did and realize what needs to be done to get the fiscal house in order. No Pain No Gain.

This was by design, this was five years in the making. Barry, Axelrod and the Chicago communist cabal knows what its doing. Since 2008, Barry has been hell-bent on growing the government, destroying the private sector, and running the national debt to unprecedented levels.

He has no intention of stopping. He's just getting warmed up.

Of course, he tells the American people he's doing no such thing, that it's just racists saying all these nasty things about him. And the drones believe him. They don't believe their own eyes, they believe him and his commisars in the media.

Well, now they are all about to get fist ****ed by Barry, and that patsy dope Boehner will get blamed. The drones will believe it. But at this point, does it even matter?

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by tmax63

I say give the Dems what they want. Off the cliff, raise taxes across the board and let the Dems own it all.

The problem is, that is actually what a lot of Democrats want, because the GOP is going to rake in the blame.

And why shouldn't they? They don't know what they want. They've shot down compromise with the President. They've shot down their own proposal.

The GOP is lost.

[Direckshun]

I should mention a new angle that's getting some traction amongst commentators today:

Boehner's Plan B was loaded with Republican valentines, and one minute Republican compromise: a millionaire tax. House Republicans had about a 60/40 split against it, but that indicates that 40% of the House GOP can deal pragmatically.

If that's the case, Boehner has just proven that the Tea Partiers won't negotiate, so he can plow forward to carve out a centrist deal with the 40% of pragmatic Republicans and the House Democrats.

That's a plausible way forward, but it moves negotiations back even stronger into Obama's hands, and it means Boehner might not be the Speaker for much longer.

[Direckshun]

David Frum:

Here's what happens now.

1) President Obama goes on holiday.

2) December 31 arrives.

3) Taxes go up on everybody. Unemployment insurance ends. Sequester begins to go into effect.

4) Screams, howls.

5) President Obama returns to Washington, speaks to country from Oval Office or else summons special session, unveils the "Obama Tax Cut and Job Creation plan" featuring a whacking big tax cut for 98% of Americans.

6) Plan polls at 70% or better.

7) Republicans resist.

8) Republicans surrender.

9) Economy recovers, "morning in America," Obama basks in glory in 2nd term.

That's what those Republicans voted for when they rejected Plan B.

[La literatura]

Most recent picture of Speaker Boehner:

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

They've shot down compromise with the President.

What compromise is that? Raise taxes and no spending cuts.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

David Frum:

That only works with the Constitutionally illiterate masses because a president can't legislate a tax plan. That power belongs to the House.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I should mention a new angle that's getting some traction amongst commentators today:

Boehner's Plan B was loaded with Republican valentines, and one minute Republican compromise: a millionaire tax. House Republicans had about a 60/40 split against it, but that indicates that 40% of the House GOP can deal pragmatically.

If that's the case, Boehner has just proven that the Tea Partiers won't negotiate, so he can plow forward to carve out a centrist deal with the 40% of pragmatic Republicans and the House Democrats.

That's a plausible way forward, but it moves negotiations back even stronger into Obama's hands, and it means Boehner might not be the Speaker for much longer.

The House does not have to negotiate. It's their job to come up with a budget and Obama can veto it if he wants.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I should mention a new angle that's getting some traction amongst commentators today:

Boehner's Plan B was loaded with Republican valentines, and one minute Republican compromise: a millionaire tax. House Republicans had about a 60/40 split against it, but that indicates that 40% of the House GOP can deal pragmatically.

If that's the case, Boehner has just proven that the Tea Partiers won't negotiate, so he can plow forward to carve out a centrist deal with the 40% of pragmatic Republicans and the House Democrats.

That's a plausible way forward, but it moves negotiations back even stronger into Obama's hands, and it means Boehner might not be the Speaker for much longer.

Who cares? This whole thing is a dog and pony show. The country is broke, the goverment has no intention of cutting out the spending (in fact it's gonna increase) and taxes are going through the roof.

All you're doing is setting up a BS narrative that blames boner and the r's instead of the prime villian, Obastard.