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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:33 PM   #436
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Originally Posted by -King- View Post
The only downside to us winning next week is we have to alternate the first pick in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th round with the Jags. Having to move back 1 spot for 3 picks is a small price to pay if it means that the Broncos won't get to stay at home throughout the playoffs.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:33 PM   #437
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -King- View Post
The only downside to us winning next week is we have to alternate the first pick in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th round with the Jags. Having to move back 1 spot for 3 picks is a small price to pay if it means that the Broncos won't get to stay at home throughout the playoffs.
Yeah it's still stupid.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:33 PM   #438
OnTheWarpath58 OnTheWarpath58 is offline
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Yeah that's stupid.
You're being nice.

It's mind-numbingly ****ing stupid.

I could give two shits about what happens to Denver this year.

I do care about the next 10 years in KC, however.

Denver can win the SB for all I care. I want the highest possible pick in every round.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:34 PM
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:34 PM   #439
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:35 PM   #440
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The Jags just took the Patriots to the wire.

Tennessee just gave up a 50-burger and stopped trying 2 weeks ago.

It's a very winnable game for JAX.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:37 PM   #441
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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The Jags just took the Patriots to the wire.

Tennessee just gave up a 50-burger and stopped trying 2 weeks ago.

It's a very winnable game for JAX.
This.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:38 PM   #442
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If I could chose between us having the top pick in every round and Denver making it to the superbowl----or alternating picks with Jacksonville In rounds 2,4 and 6 and Denver losing in the first round, I'd be perfectly fine with the first option.

This season is all about the Chiefs future and I want every advantage we can get.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:38 PM   #443
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I don't care if the Donkeys shut everybody out en route to their third Super Bowl trophy. It doesn't do anything for or against us. All I care about is what's going on with my Chiefs. How are we gonna get better is what's on my mind.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:41 PM   #444
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Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
The Jags just took the Patriots to the wire.

Tennessee just gave up a 50-burger and stopped trying 2 weeks ago.

It's a very winnable game for JAX.
Depends what Jacksonville team shows up. Henne has been faulty this year.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:43 PM   #445
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Jags might just win.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:44 PM   #446
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We need New England to beat Miami in the early game.

Then Denver has to beat us to get a first round bye. They'll play hard for that, IMO.

So ideally, Jacksonville beats Tennessee, New England beats Miami, and then Denver hangs us on a rusty nail in the afternoon...
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:46 PM   #447
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Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
If I could chose between us having the, top pick in every round and Denver making it to the superbowl----or alternating picks with Jacksonville In rounds 2,4 and 6 and Denver losing in the first round, I'd be perfectly fine with the first option.

This season is all about the Chiefs future and I want every advantage we can get.
Can you imagine if a huge stud, say Hunter or some other talent, drops to 33 and the ****ing JAGS picked him up?! ****! NO THANKS!
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:49 PM   #448
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That's the league's plan, yes. RT @ChiefsOrioles10 @AlbertBreer Tonight we find out what games get flex to 4pm right?
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:50 PM   #449
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These guys who NEED to upset Denver probably have Bronco fan friends, family, or coworkers...
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:50 PM   #450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
We need New England to beat Miami in the early game.

Then Denver has to beat us to get a first round bye. They'll play hard for that, IMO.

So ideally, Jacksonville beats Tennessee, New England beats Miami, and then Denver hangs us on a rusty nail in the afternoon...
Denver is not going to let up. It doesn't matter what New England does. Teams that rest starters lose in the playoffs. Super Bowls are about momentum, Denver going to pound us.
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