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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:53 PM   #451
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
So ideally, Jacksonville beats Tennessee, New England beats Miami, and then Denver hangs us on a rusty nail in the afternoon...
I could go for one of those

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Old 12-23-2012, 05:58 PM   #452
cdcox cdcox is offline
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This may have already been said, but Denver can finish anywhere between the 1 seed and the 3 seed, so the game definitely is going to mean something to them regardless. Manning will play.
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Old 12-23-2012, 07:10 PM   #453
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I really, really, really, really, really hope that Jacksonville wins so we can unleash our full rooting fury on the cheating Broncos.
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Old 12-23-2012, 07:36 PM   #454
JASONSAUTO JASONSAUTO is offline
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Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
It happens every year. It will come out tonight don't need to link it.
We had this conversation last week. You could only link two games.

I'm not buying it happens "every year"
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Old 12-23-2012, 07:52 PM   #455
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
This may have already been said, but Denver can finish anywhere between the 1 seed and the 3 seed, so the game definitely is going to mean something to them regardless. Manning will play.
I think the Texans and Pats play at 12:00.

If somehow they both loose, won't the Donks automatically lock up 1st seed?

Therefore the 3:00 game with the Chiefs wont matter.

Also not sure of the tiebreaker with Donks and Pats
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Old 12-23-2012, 07:55 PM   #456
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The only way Denver has nothing to play for is a Pats loss and Houston win.
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Old 12-23-2012, 07:57 PM   #457
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Originally Posted by HerculesRockefell View Post
The only way Denver has nothing to play for is a Pats loss and Houston win.
That is a possible scenario, and the main thing that ruins it all is those games are at noon before the Chiefs play.
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Old 12-23-2012, 07:58 PM   #458
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C-Mac View Post
I think the Texans and Pats play at 12:00.

If somehow they both loose, won't the Donks automatically lock up 1st seed?

Therefore the 3:00 game with the Chiefs wont matter.

Also not sure of the tiebreaker with Donks and Pats
Again, the league has become about getting hot at the right time.

The Broncos won't be resting anybody, even if they already have the #1 seed.
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Old 12-23-2012, 08:21 PM   #459
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Denver could rest every starter on their team and still beat the Chiefs by 35 points.

That is the beauty of Romeo/Daboll/Quinn.
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Old 12-23-2012, 08:43 PM
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Old 12-23-2012, 08:52 PM
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Old 12-25-2012, 08:55 PM   #460
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