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Old 12-30-2012, 02:52 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Non-QB Options at #1 Overall

I think it's worth having this conversation this offseason.

It doesn't make overwhelming sense for the Chiefs to go with a QB #1 overall. I would argue it makes a lot of sense, but it's not the clear-cut obvious move this year.

Mainly that's because this is a top-heavy QB class with no elite QB. There's a very good chance an Andy Dalton sits at the top of the second round.

I'm not necessarily advocating what's what we should do (yet), but here are our nonQB options at QB.

Secondary, RBs, ILBs, WRs, interior OL -- none of these positions deserve the #1 overall pick, unless the WR in question has elite speed. The best WR in my opinion this year is California's Keena Allen, who does not have elite speed.

Passrushers -- I think these are worth discussing because we don't know our defensive scheme next year -- if we are staying in a 3-4, there's no real reason to look here. But if we're going to a 4-3, where Justin Houston is completely unproven, it might be worth a look. Bjoern Werner is the player that jumps off the page, and plays with such immense strength that he's a very safe player for the NFL Draft, where you always worry about strength in DL prospects. I also like Dion Jordan of Oregon, Jarvin Jones of Georgia, and the passrushers on both sides of the LSU line.

Defensive tackle -- This team needs help up front. Dorsey is likely gone, Tyson Jackson will either be retained at a much lower salary or he's gone as well (likely). That leaves us with three huge linemen in Dontari Poe (who I think could move to DE), Jerrell Powe, and Shaun Smith. Powe and Smith are pluggers, and Poe is a penetrator. This team needs a top-notch OL penetrator, and that's exactly the kind of player that the #1 pick was designed for if a QB isn't on hand. Star Lotulelei of Utah and Sheldon Richardson of Missouri make the absolute most sense here (I think Johnathan Hankins and John Jenkins project more to be pluggers, which aren't worth the penultimate pick in the draft).

This is my way-too-early endorsement for the 2013 draft: if there is not a QB that jumps off the page and commands attention as a potential Super Bowl winning QB, as I believe there is not, the Chiefs should hold off 'til the second round, even trade back into the 1st for one, and save their biggest and best pick for the defensive lineman they believe will keep offensive coorindators up at night.

4-3 defense:

Hali
Lotulelei/Richardson and Poe
Powe and Smith
Houston

3-4:

OLB: Hali
Lotulelei/Richadson
Powe
Poe
OLB: Houston

Tackles -- Which brings me here. There is #1 overall worth talent here, and they're both in A&M. But I believe the Chiefs will bring back Branden Albert (which of course, we don't know until a new coach is brought in). Even if they don't bring in Albert, you can probably suffer through a year seeing what you have in Donald Stephenson. Getting elite DL talent is that important.

Last edited by Direckshun; 12-30-2012 at 03:00 PM..
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Old 12-30-2012, 03:25 PM   #2
Nightfyre Nightfyre is offline
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If we even entertain this conversation, and stay with a 3-4 this conversation begins and ends with lotulei and jones.
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Old 12-30-2012, 05:50 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I think it's worth having this conversation this offseason.
Really?

I don't.
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:01 PM   #4
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
Really?

I don't.
It doesn't make overwhelming sense for the Chiefs to go with a QB #1 overall. I would argue it makes a lot of sense, but it's not the clear-cut obvious move this year.

Mainly that's because this is a top-heavy QB class with no elite QB. There's a very good chance an Andy Dalton sits at the top of the second round.
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:33 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
It doesn't make overwhelming sense for the Chiefs to go with a QB #1 overall. I would argue it makes a lot of sense, but it's not the clear-cut obvious move this year.

Mainly that's because this is a top-heavy QB class with no elite QB. There's a very good chance an Andy Dalton sits at the top of the second round.
And there's a very good chance that a Matt Ryan sits atop the entire draft.

Matt Ryan...









50 feet of shit...









Andy Dalton.
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:35 PM   #6
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Matt Ryan was an elite prospect.

None of the QBs in this draft are of that caliber.
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:36 PM   #7
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Prospect...

You don't think any of Smith, Wilson, or Barkley can be as successful in the NFL as Ryan?

Anyone trying to argue against taking a QB #1 needs to GTFO.

"Dude we can hold out for ****ing Andy Dalton!"
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:40 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Matt Ryan was an elite prospect.

None of the QBs in this draft are of that caliber.
I completely disagree with this statement.
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:46 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
I completely disagree with this statement.
Geno Smith is a UDFA to Direckshun.
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Old 12-30-2012, 11:28 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
It doesn't make overwhelming sense for the Chiefs to go with a QB #1 overall. I would argue it makes a lot of sense, but it's not the clear-cut obvious move this year.

Mainly that's because this is a top-heavy QB class with no elite QB. There's a very good chance an Andy Dalton sits at the top of the second round.
Love ya man, but there is nothing but an overwhelming sense for the Chiefs to go QB with the #1 overall. It is totally clear cut.

And it's a very good chance that Jimmy Clausen sits there in the second round.

And I'm pretty sure that Geno Smith is as good at his position as anyone else in this draft is at theirs.

Like I said in the Geno thread, there isn't a Calvin Johnson, a Ndamukong Suh, a Pat Willis, an Alex Mack, a Von Miller. There are some pretty good football players in this draft but I don't see anyone out there that's as good as Smith.

I'd love to have you convince me that there is, but Smith's body of work, intangibles and skill set says otherwise.

Last edited by Saccopoo; 12-31-2012 at 12:13 AM..
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Old 12-31-2012, 12:57 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
You don't think any of Smith, Wilson, or Barkley can be as successful in the NFL as Ryan?
I think they can be, yes.

I just don't think they project to be as good as he is.
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Old 12-31-2012, 12:58 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
I completely disagree with this statement.
Really? Are we forgetting exactly how good Matt Ryan was as a prospect?
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Old 12-31-2012, 12:59 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
Geno Smith is a UDFA to Direckshun.
Oh please, there is absolutely no reason to get bent out of shape. We're talking football, this should be Sunday-on-the-porch.

Geno Smith is probably the best prospect at the position this year. I am not sold that he is a can't-miss guy, though.
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Old 12-31-2012, 01:02 AM   #14
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Love ya man, but there is nothing but an overwhelming sense for the Chiefs to go QB with the #1 overall. It is totally clear cut.

And it's a very good chance that Jimmy Clausen sits there in the second round.

And I'm pretty sure that Geno Smith is as good at his position as anyone else in this draft is at theirs.

Like I said in the Geno thread, there isn't a Calvin Johnson, a Ndamukong Suh, a Pat Willis, an Alex Mack, a Von Miller. There are some pretty good football players in this draft but I don't see anyone out there that's as good as Smith.

I'd love to have you convince me that there is, but Smith's body of work, intangibles and skill set says otherwise.
In terms of purely being a prospect, Geno's below all of the players I mentioned in the OP as of now, in my eyes.
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Old 12-31-2012, 09:02 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
In terms of purely being a prospect, Geno's below all of the players I mentioned in the OP as of now, in my eyes.
You want a discussion - give me a discussion.

None of the players you have mentioned (Kennan Allen? Please.) have put together a season/career that can match Smith's.

Guys like Bjoern Werner, who has been very productive for the Seminoles, but lacks experience and may be a product of a well designed system. (e.g., Tank Carradine was a backup, who, when put in as a starter, amassed double digits sacks.) Werner does have the drive and strength, but not the initial burst to put him as an "elite" prospect and his frame isn't going to carry much more additional muscle weight. (He was heavier in 2011 and carried the weight around his middle. He had to drop weight to be the player he was in 2012.) The bulk of his numbers came in bunches and he was a non-factor in some of the games this season. He's a pure 43 defensive end and not the "prodigy" level prospect for that position that, say, South Carolina's sophomore Jadeveon Clowney is.

Jarvis Jones has put together two very good seasons, but he's probably maxed in his 6'2", 240 lbs frame and is a OLB in a 43. He's thick around the middle versus base and top. He's not overly strong and will have to stay outside in a 43. There is also injury concerns and he doesn't have the same type of first step that a guy like Von Miller has. Very instinctive and incredibly productive. He reminds me of TCU's (and now Indy Colts) Jerry Hughes in body, skill set and college production.

Guys like Demontre Moore of TA&M and Dion Jordan of Oregon are most likely 34 OLB's. Moore has had a terrific season, but not as good as what Justin Houston had in his final year of Georgia. Are you going to take a guy with the first overall pick to be a backup at the OLB for the Chiefs as both Houston and Hali have established themselves as top level guys? Jordan is raw and saw his numbers decline in 2012 as teams looked to shut him down versus the "new" guy in 2011.

I've watched Starlite Lotulelei for his entire career. He's a very, very good player who demands double teams (though he does get frustrated when teams start to focus on him with the double team and can be neutralized by them with good offensive linemen). However, he is not the explosive, upfield defensive tackle type in the mold of a Suh or Ngata. He's more of a gap dominator versus an upfield penetrator type of tackle. Personally, I think he'd be an excellent NT in a one gap 34 type defense and they drafted that guy in Poe last season. (And I squealed about that fact last season that why would you take Poe when Lotulelei and Hankins would be available in 2012.) He and John Hankins of Ohio State are very similar players in both style and build. Neither have the length to be ultimately effective as a 34 DE.

Sheldon Richardson of Missouri looks to be a prototype one gap 34 defensive end and should be very effective as a DT in a 43. However, the Chiefs drafted Glenn Dorsey to be that same guy in Herms 43 and that's also the same position that former top 3 pick Tyson Jackson played in college. If you are thinking of drafting Richardson for either a 34 DE or a 43 DT, you just resign Dorsey because of his experience in the NFL and with his teammates on the Chiefs. Just replacing him with a rookie who didn't have the college production of Dorsey would be, for a lack of a better word, stupid. And I'm not sure that Richardson is any better than Allen Bailey at this point.

And, to tell you the truth, I'm ****ing pretty sick of the Chiefs drafting defensive linemen while passing over QB prospects year after year after year. There is enough young, high round defensive line guys on this team that even considering one is redundant and, frankly, dumb.

I fail to see that when you put everything together for Geno - size, arm strength, delivery, accuracy, touch, pocket awareness, experience and actual on-the-field production, that he's not a top level QB prospect with a high floor and an elite level ceiling.

How's that for discussion?

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