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Old 07-20-2012, 11:41 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Fiscal Cliff Approacheth

In an effort to make this thread sticky-worthy, I am going to update this OP to keep casual glancers informed.

This post is the official one-stop shopping of the key points/developments of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Far as I understand, the fiscal cliff:

1. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for everybody else.
3. Slashes defense spending by something like $500 billion.
4. Slashes domestic programs like the NIH, Head Start, and medicine/drug care for the poor by $500 billion.

The new idea is for Democrats to allow the cliff to hit, then immediately introduce a bill that would bring 2, 4, and some of 3 back. But not 1.

Here is a chart detailing exactly what the fiscal cliff is going to do, financially:

Spoiler!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
New CBO projection: if the fiscal cliff hits, we are in another recession, and lose two million jobs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87L0JV20120822
The poor would be hurt by the fiscal cliff:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Overall, if the tax breaks from the 2009 stimulus are allowed to expire—the EITC and Child Tax Credit expansions, along with American Opportunity Credit for college tuition—the poorest 20 percent of Americans would see their taxes go up by $209 on average, reducing their after-tax income by 1.9 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.
As would the middle class:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, more than half of all married couples will owe an additional tax of around $4,000 unless Congress acts. And more than a third of families with children will fall subject to the AMT, with parents of three or more children facing an extra tax of $4,700.

Among married couples with at least two children and adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000, the center estimates that 84 percent will face a significantly higher tax bill this year because of the AMT.
There seems to be some consensus between the parties that substantial revenues want to be raised. Boehner and the GOP hopes that's through limiting tax deductions rather than tax raises.

Obama's opening offer, essentially:

Quote:
  • Allow the Bush tax cuts on high earners to expire. $849 billion
  • Limit itemized deductions to 28 percent, close some loopholes and deductions on high earners, eliminate tax breaks for oil and gas companies, eliminate the carried interest loophole, plus a few other items. $584 billion
  • Create a special "Buffett Rule" tax rate for millionaires. $47 billion
  • Restore the estate tax to 2009 levels. $143 billion
  • Limit corporate income shifting to low-tax countries. $148 billion
  • Other miscellaneous tax increases and reductions. About -$200 billion
  • Total: $1.6 trillion

Last edited by Direckshun; 11-14-2012 at 10:54 AM..
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Old 12-31-2012, 01:57 PM   #706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Literature View Post
A deal has been reached.
Got a link? Both CNN and fox are saying the "deal is within sight", but no formal deal has been reached.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/31/politi...html?hpt=hp_t1

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...-in-tax-hikes/
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:03 PM   #707
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I think Obama should get whatever he wants, since he won 51% of the vote. Clearly, he has a mandate to get 100% of what he wants.
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:05 PM   #708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Got a link? Both CNN and fox are saying the "deal is within sight", but no formal deal has been reached.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/31/politi...html?hpt=hp_t1

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...-in-tax-hikes/
I'm watching CSPAN. There's an alert at the bottom: "Sen. McConnell: Agreement Reached on Fiscal Cliff Tax Issues."

However, their above bar says "Still No Agreement on Fiscal Cliff."
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:06 PM   #709
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Literature View Post
I'm watching CSPAN. There's an alert at the bottom: "Sen. McConnell: Agreement Reached on Fiscal Cliff Tax Issues."

However, their above bar says "Still No Agreement on Fiscal Cliff."
Cool. I am at work so will have to check it out when I get home.
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:17 PM   #710
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Now they took down that Sen McConnell message. Sorry about the confusion.
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:55 PM   #711
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Literature View Post
Now they took down that Sen McConnell message. Sorry about the confusion.
No problem. As with all politically things, I am sure it is very fluid, and nothing is officially until everything get passed and signed.
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:56 PM   #712
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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says fiscal cliff negotiators are "very, very close" to a deal. http://on.cnn.com/YHjVAp #fiscalcliff
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Old 12-31-2012, 04:01 PM   #713
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No deal. **** that. Push her on over the cliff.
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Old 12-31-2012, 04:46 PM   #714
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Old 12-31-2012, 07:30 PM   #715
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Old 12-31-2012, 07:58 PM   #716
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BREAKING: Senate Democratic aide: White House and GOP reach deal on fiscal cliff.
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Old 12-31-2012, 08:03 PM   #717
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Quote:
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The Associated Press ‏@AP

BREAKING: Senate Democratic aide: White House and GOP reach deal on fiscal cliff.
Oh boy.
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Old 12-31-2012, 08:24 PM   #718
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Old 01-01-2013, 03:21 PM   #719
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Well the small deal passed the Senate at 2am, 89-9.

I think either side could ultimately argue that it was a win, but I think the argument is only slightly stronger with the Democratic side. No real spending cuts at all, permanent Bush tax rates for everybody but the top 2%. Those earning 400+ will see the Clinton rates return, also permanently. Capital gains taxes also go up on those folks. The estate tax will return for estates of $5+ million at 50%.

That's a hair north of 700B. A long with a bit of stimulus, as well.

In return, sequestration gets pushed back two months, with assurances that entitlement reform will be on the table. Right in line with when the debt ceiling fight (which will get its own "approacheth" thread soon).

In a dovetailing of my "approacheth" threads, a nine-month extension of the 2008 farm bill is being attached to this bill.

The Republican Party can cheer that they got the White House to budge on tax hikes for 250k to 400k, and the debt ceiling was left entirely alone, since they believe that's a fight they can win.

I think, if nothing else, this cements Joe Biden as one of the most effective Vice Presidents to have ever served -- and reforming the usage of the Vice Presidency may be a lasting legacy of the Obama administration. Biden oversaw the Recovery Act which suffered no scandals, the withdrawal of the Iraq War, quarterbacked the last leg of a critical fiscal cliff deal, and will soon be issuing a gun control report which could change the national conversation on gun rights in January.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...l-cheat-sheet/

Your fiscal cliff deal cheat sheet
Posted by Suzy Khimm
December 31, 2012 at 11:26 pm

The White House and the Senate have finalized the details of their deal to avert the fiscal cliff. The bill basically follows the framework that came out earlier this afternoon from the McConnell-Biden talks, with key additional details. Here’s the rundown of what it’s likely to look like:

— Tax rates will permanently rise to Clinton-era levels for families with income above $450,000 and individuals above $400,000. All income below the threshold will permanently be taxed at Bush-era rates.

— The tax on capital gains and dividends will be permanently set at 20 percent for those with income above the $450,000/$400,000 threshold. It will remain at 15 percent for everyone else. (Clinton-era rates were 20 percent for capital gains and taxed dividends as ordinary income, with a top rate of 39.6 percent.)

— The estate tax will be set at 40 percent for those at the $450,000/$400,000 threshold, with a $5 million exemption. That threshold will be indexed to inflation, as a concession to Republicans and some Democrats in rural areas like Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mt.).

— The sequester will be delayed for two months. Half of the delay will be offset by discretionary cuts, split between defense and non-defense. The other half will be offset by revenue raised by the voluntary transfer of traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs, which would tax retirement savings when they’re moved over.

— The pay freeze on members of Congress, which Obama had lifted earlier this year, will be re-imposed.

— The 2009 expansion of tax breaks for low-income Americans: the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit, and the American Opportunity Tax Credit will be extended for five years.

— The Alternative Minimum Tax will be permanently patched to avoid raising taxes on the middle-class.

— The deal will not address the debt-ceiling, and the payroll tax holiday will be allowed to expire.

— Two limits on tax exemptions and deductions for higher-income Americans will be reimposed: Personal Exemption Phaseout (PEP) will be set at $250,000 and the itemized deduction limitation (Pease) kicks in at $300,000.

—The full package of temporary business tax breaks — benefiting everything from R&D and wind energy to race-car track owners — will be extended for another year.

— Scheduled cuts to doctors under Medicare would be avoided for a year through spending cuts that haven’t been specified.

— Federal unemployment insurance will be extended for another year, benefiting those unemployed for longer than 26 weeks. This $30 billion provision won’t be offset.

— A nine-month farm bill fix will be attached to the deal, Sen. Debbie Stabenow told reporters, averting the newly dubbed milk cliff.
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Old 01-01-2013, 03:22 PM   #720
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Among the nos: Rand Paul and Marco Rubio.

Senate Republicans clearly do not think this is a winner, so they are not allowing either of them to attach their names to it to remove an attack on that front for the 2016 GOP primaries.
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