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Old 12-22-2012, 12:02 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The fiscal cliff could undo the recovery.

Should we not only take the tumble off the fiscal cliff on January 1st (which, after the GOP's "Plan B" implosion, I now regard as likely) and not get the drastic cuts and tax increases resolved before February (when the cliff is expected to start making its real presence felt), or if we have another debt ceiling standoff in March, we are potentially averting a real recovery.

I don't think we would be plunging into a recession, as the CBO projects it could, because Obama can manipulate when the tax increases actually take effect and he can slowly implement the cuts, radical as all these things are.

But what we are starting to see in the economy is the headwinds of a sturdy recovery that would set the table for a solid recovery in 2014:
  • Personal consumption rose 0.4 percent this past month.
  • Income rose 0.6 percent this month, including a 0.8 percent increase in disposable income -- a hugely important number, as that is more demand being injected into the economy.
  • The third quarter GDP was actually upgraded from 2.7 to 3.1 percent.
  • States have stopped acting as an incredible drag on the economy, though it may still be a couple years before they start contributing to our national GDP.
  • The tepid recovery we've had has occurred in spite of the housing market languishing. Well that dynamic is no more, the housing market is recovering much faster, and is now halfway back to normal.
  • Fourth quarter GDP is up.
  • As for employment, the numbers are better. 43 states and DC report lower unemployment rates, and unemployment now sits at 7.7% nationally.
The absolute only thing that can derail a recovery is ourselves.

We can shoot ourselves in the foot, that's it. A recovery will occur if we do not do that. A steady one in 2013, and a really good one in 2014, with housing gathering steam.
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Old 12-22-2012, 11:27 AM   #16
Chocolate Hog Chocolate Hog is offline
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If cutting shit is going to ruin the "recovery" then that should tell you how much bullshit the "recovery" was.
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Old 12-22-2012, 11:51 AM   #17
Cave Johnson Cave Johnson is offline
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The only thing that will derail the economy is the markets deciding the U.S. political process is irreparably f'd.
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Old 12-22-2012, 12:24 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by RedNeckRaider View Post
What recovery?
You know, the one we can credit Obama with if it happens and blame the Republicans for if it doesn't. That one,
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Old 12-22-2012, 12:44 PM   #19
Otter Otter is offline
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Once again Direkshun proves he has no grasp on the markets and is Nothing but an Internet warrior. What ****ing recovery?

What do you do for a living?
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Old 12-22-2012, 12:44 PM   #20
KILLER_CLOWN KILLER_CLOWN is offline
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What recovery?

Q i guess, didn't read the other responses....heh
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Old 01-03-2013, 07:14 PM   #21
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:33 PM   #22
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cave Johnson View Post
The only thing that will derail the economy is the markets deciding the U.S. political process is irreparably f'd.
Check

and

Quote:
Originally Posted by FD View Post
I don't understand why the stimulus skeptics aren't going around posting that the fiscal cliff will be completely harmless. After all, if tax cuts and spending projects don't boost the economy, why would tax hikes and spending cuts hurt it?
mate.
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:56 PM   #23
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