The Debt Ceiling Approacheth

[Direckshun]

Now that the fiscal cliff has been turned into various cliffs over the entirety of 2013 (should be a fun year, gang...), we can turn our attention the the next one coming up.

In February, we face the sequester cliff, followed shortly by the debt ceiling.

For all intents and purposes, this thread will be used as a repository for both cliffs.

The debt ceiling, of course, has far graver consequences for both the country and the planet. Treasury adopted emergency funding measures about two weeks ago.

[Direckshun]

So right now the GOP is getting slaughtered by their base for the fiscal cliff deal. That means they will have to come in on this guns blazing, zero compromise, and force a default just in order to protect their right flanks in 2014.

That's a tough order for them, and may further alienate them from the center (which fortunately doesn't matter as much for midterm elections).

I think that means than anything other than complete capitulation from Senate Democrats means we risk default. I put that at about 90% likely that we will not have a deal by the deadline.

If that's a case, Obama will absolutely have to take some unilateral action. One option:

Under the current law, the executive branch of the government (which includes the Treasury and the President) is obligated to carry out all appropriations authorized by the Congress. It has been argued that, in the presence of conflicting statutes (a federal budget statute, which instructs the Treasury to spend a certain amount of money, and a debt ceiling statute, which limits the amount of money that the Treasury is allowed to borrow in process), the statute that was passed more recently "wins"; therefore, in this situation, the President may simply instruct the Treasury to continue issuing bonds beyond the ceiling. Furthermore, such an instruction may be difficult to challenge in court, because it would take a joint resolution of both chambers of Congress to get standing to challenge it.[49] In addition, it has been observed by many, such as legal scholar Garrett Epps, fiscal expert Bruce Bartlett and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, that the debt ceiling itself may be unconstitutional and therefore void as long as it interferes with the duty of the government to pay interest on outstanding bonds and to make payments owed to pensioners (that is, Social Security recipients).[50][51]

[Direckshun]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/20..._the_debt.html

Read the Poll That Convinces House Republicans They Can Win on the Debt Limit
By David Weigel
Posted Friday, Jan. 4, 2013, at 2:25 PM ET

This morning, Jennifer Rubin gave readers a taste of John Boehner's first pep rally for the new House Republican conference. "We’re releasing the results of a survey by the Winston Group taken December 29-30 among 1,000 registered voters," said the speaker. "Seventy-two percent of Americans agree any increase in the nation’s debt limit must be accompanied by spending cuts and reforms of a greater amount."

The Winston Group has been kind enough to provide me with the poll, posted here. It's got a reliable partisan and ideological sample -- 37 percent Democrat, 33 Republican. It includes a few take-your-medicine results that contradict Republican dogma. For example:



Republicans hate to think that's true. In context, though, it's a reminder that the worst is behind them -- that "revenue is over," and that Washington will now turn its staggering focus to spending. They start the debt ceiling fight with basically no movement since 2011. People still hear "debt ceiling" and say "don't raise that."



The Winston Group tested a dry version of the White House's argument for just raising the ceiling. It was in the negative zone, by 19 points.



But then comes the "Boehner rule." House Republicans want to raise the debt limit by some amount, but only with a commensurate amount of cuts.



This is a good starting point for the next Debtdammerung. Why do Republicans confidently say they have leverage to demand cuts for a debt limit hike? Because the poll says they do.

[DaveNull]

I wish that the GOP would try to win elections by effectively governing instead of standing in the way of everything else in the hopes that things will break so they can put blame on someone else.

[DaveNull]

Interesting little piece in the Atlantic about the state of the House right now from a former GOP congressman.

[donkhater]

Originally Posted by DaveNull

I wish that the GOP would try to win elections by effectively governing instead of standing in the way of everything else in the hopes that things will break so they can put blame on someone else.

In other words, by doing the exact same thing Obama just did.

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by donkhater

In other words, by doing the exact same thing Obama just did.

Yup! This is the Establishment* line, who owns most of the corporate media to cow the freedom loving limited govt types left. Obey the chief, when the Framers wanted a weak president instead over lording it over the people's House as if we have a king.

*Major media, elite banksters, academia and party leadership, mercantilist and progressive interests ( yes the latter are close to the same thing).

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/20..._the_debt.html

Read the Poll That Convinces House Republicans They Can Win on the Debt Limit


The Winston Group has been kind enough to provide me with the poll, posted here. It's got a reliable partisan and ideological sample -- 37 percent Democrat, 33 Republican. It includes a few take-your-medicine results that contradict Republican dogma. For example:

This is the problem with your poll: The reporting is one sided and then they poll.
Communications 101—Purpose of the major media is to shape public opinion.

The thing you and others like you do not understand is congress as a collective may have a low rating and be criticized as a group, BUT the ones refusing to go along to get along do represent their constituents who voted for them for those stands. So just having some Ds and Rs in the poll doesn't really show much. The election results are the indicator. So you're criticizing certain constituents.
It also shows how entitlement Americans are just as much PART of the PROBLEM. This is how the welfare state corrupts the people.

[the steam]

The debt ceiling should just be made 500 trillion dollars. Can someone please explain to me the reason for having a debt ceiling if it is just going to be raised everytime we hit it? Not being sarcastic, seriously what is the point of having a debt ceiling?

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by donkhater

In other words, by doing the exact same thing Obama just did.

Come again?

[FD]

Originally Posted by the steam

The debt ceiling should just be made 500 trillion dollars. Can someone please explain to me the reason for having a debt ceiling if it is just going to be raised everytime we hit it? Not being sarcastic, seriously what is the point of having a debt ceiling?

There is no point. Its an anachronism from a time before modern budgeting, and no other country has one.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by the steam

The debt ceiling should just be made 500 trillion dollars. Can someone please explain to me the reason for having a debt ceiling if it is just going to be raised everytime we hit it? Not being sarcastic, seriously what is the point of having a debt ceiling?

Nope, you are absolutely right. It is an arbitrary, unnecessary device.

For the vast majority of its history, it was raised without debate. Now it's used to hold the economy hostage so one side can demand something in return for NOT crashing the economy.

I've gone rounds with patteeu on this, and his response was essentially to argue that the debt ceiling "reminds us of our insane spending."

As if we need an economy-threatening useless tool to remind us of that.

[mlyonsd]

You're witnessing exactly why the debt ceiling is important and makes sense.

The simple fact we're talking about our debt is as a result part of the ceiling. Getting rid of it is the dumbest idea ever and only championed by those that would rather circumvent being responsible and accountable with our money.

i.e. Obama, Reid, Pelosi.

[donkhater]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Come again?

Obama just held the chance of going over 'the fiscal cliff' hostage unless taxes were increased on those making over $250K. If he didn't get what he wanted and sequestration occured and taxes were increased across the board, do you think he would blame himself?

How is that any different than what he is accusing the GOP of doing with the debt ceiling?

Hopefully Boehner learned his lesson. Stop negotiating with Obama. Go through the legistlative process in the House and put the pressure on the Dems in the Senate to come to an agreement. If Obama vetos a bill that gets developed it's on him, because it passed both chambers.

[donkhater]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Nope, you are absolutely right. It is an arbitrary, unnecessary device.

For the vast majority of its history, it was raised without debate. Now it's used to hold the economy hostage so one side can demand something in return for NOT crashing the economy.

I've gone rounds with patteeu on this, and his response was essentially to argue that the debt ceiling "reminds us of our insane spending."

As if we need an economy-threatening useless tool to remind us of that.

Correction--it should be an unnecessary devcie. But since our leaders can't do math, I appreciate that it is there.

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by donkhater

Correction--it should be an unnecessary devcie. But since our leaders can't do math, I appreciate that it is there.

Exactly.