|02-08-2013, 05:05 AM||Topic Starter|
Join Date: Jan 2009
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Team Geno vs. Team Tyler
The writer's name looks familiar..
Team Geno vs. Team Tyler
Years from now, APers will speak in hushed tones about The Quarterback Wars of 2012/2013. Sadly, they won't be referring to any great duel between actual Chiefs quarterbacks (as if that could ever happen). They'll be talking about the ruthless, vicious battles that have raged on AP regarding what to do with the number 1 pick in April.
Things have calmed down a bit after a brutal stretch in which no post was complete without a 200-comment-long debate about what signal caller to take. Some like Geno Smith. Some like Tyler Wilson. Some like Mike Glennon. Some like Matt Barkley. Some (recently) like E.J. Manuel. Some of the bravest (and most foolhardy) of souls have even joined the battle to fight for the "non-quarterback" pick at number 1. Some call those people The Rebels. I call them nuts. But I digress.
I have no interest in dedicating multiple columns/posts to The Quarterback Wars. There's no reason. So many posts have been dedicated to breaking down numbers lately. Need a refresher, or are new to AP and want to see lots of solid fanposts about quarterbacks? Look here. And here. And here. And here. And here. And here. And here. I'll stop there, but anyone who hasn't looked through AP posts lately should read all of those. Good stuff.
But don't think I'm willing to just stand by and watch during the biggest debate in AP history. Oh no, I'm not a sideline kind of guy. As I've joined the fray I've found that the two largest clans in these wars consist of fans of two specific quarterbacks: Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson. I fight for Team Geno. My good friend saintschiefsfan1979 is one of the most aggressive warriors of Team Tyler.
Remember the opening scene in the movie Troy, where one warrior from each army came forth to do battle in order to see which army would take the field (never bet against Achilles)? It's time to bring that to The Quarterback Wars. Time to get every everything out there and let AP decide which side truly has the best arguments for "their" guy. Yep... time for a running email debate. Team Geno vs. Team Tyler!
I picked myself and saintschiefsfan1979 not just because we both love a good debate, but because both of us feel like the "other" quarterback (Wilson for me, Smith for him) would be a decent pick. We're not fanboys who think it's our guy or bust. We just think our particular guy is the right pick.
I'm gonna warn you, this is intended to settle ONCE AND FOR ALL who the superior pick would be. It will be LONG (I mean crazy long. Seriously, every argument gets put out there). At the end of the debate I'll be linking every single YouTube game film video I can provide, for those who (for some reason) haven't taken the time to watch them. Do so. Read the arguments. Watch the tape. Then pick a side.
(for those who don't know what I'm referencing, some enterprising YouTube users have been kind enough to post videos showing EVERY throw of many games played by Wilson and Smith in 2012, and some in 2011. A phenomenal tool to scout the QBs and judge for yourself).
Let the Team Geno vs. Team Tyler showdown begin...
All right, saints, it's go time. Gloves off, no holds barred. Team Geno comin' for you!!!
For some crazy reason you like Tyler Wilson more than Geno Smith. Now, I understand that we all have our issues, so I'm trying to be supportive. But for real? For REAL?
As a guest in my this fanpost, I'll let you have the first shot. Give me one good reason why I should want Tyler Wilson over Geno Smith.
One??? How about several? Because that is what makes him stand out in my eyes, that is, the overall package . He is (IMO) the best combination of measurables and intangibles of an QB in this draft .
He ran a pro style offense at Arkansas. He put up good numbers against SEC defenses . He possesses a strong arm. He has good mobility. He was thrown in a very tough spot this year with his coach leaving, losing his top 3 receivers, having no O-line protection, suffered a concussion early and yet he still competed to the very end. He seems to have elite leadership and toughness as well the ability to smoothly survey the field for the open target. His accuracy his above average.
There are guys in this draft with bigger arms. There are guys in this draft that are better athletes. There are guys in this draft who are more accurate, better height, better mechanics, better above the shoulders. But no QB in this draft that I have seen boasts the overall skillset of one Tyler Wilson.
Hope that answers your question
Yeah, that all sounds great in the abstract. But here's the problem... For all of those "great" things about Wilson, with them come a lot of bad stuff, too. Yeah, he's clearly a tough dude. He's also a guy who can't seem to stop making dumb throws every single game. Yeah, his arm is solid, but it's not elite. This wouldn't normally be a problem, but the guy PLAYS like he's got an elite arm. When you've got a guy without an elite arm who plays like he's got one, it leads to stupid throws. And that's reflected by the fact that in 12 games this year the man only threw more TDs than INTs 4 times. FOUR TIMES. That's absolutely abysmal. In EIGHT games this year he threw as many or more picks than touchdowns.
With Geno Smith, you get a guy with a good arm (like Wilson). You also get a guy with good accuracy. You get a guy who can find the open target. You basically get all the same things you get with Wilson WITHOUT the mistakes. So why not go with the guy who can do everything Wilson can, and do it while not turning the ball over a disproportionate amount of the time? Seems like Smith offers the benefits of Wilson without the risk.
You know who you really just described? Eli Manning. Manning doesn't have A humungous arm. In fact, I think his arm and Wilson's arm are pretty comparable to each other. Manning throws many picks, he makes many mistakes. Are you saying you wouldn't want Eli Manning? I'm not saying that Wilson will be as good as Manning is. But I know for all the mistakes Manning makes , he also make incredible plays with his arm, plays that have won Super Bowls.
You know who doesn't make a ton of mistakes? Blaine Gabbert. How is that working out in Jacksonville? Wilson has confidence in his arm. There are worse criticisms to slap on a guy than being confident. I would rather have a guy that is willing to air it out, make an occasional mistake, than a guy like Brady Quinn that has a love affair with four yard check downs. Many of Wilson's mistakes come from some mechanical issues that can be corrected with good coaching. And besides, the guy had thirteen picks. Lets not make it out to be thirty
And if you go by the second half of the season, Smith had only two fewer INT's than Wilson did. He also had several fumbles and I saw several ball dropped by defensive backs. Not only that , he had very comparable numbers to what Wilson put up in that time frame. Smith was not the same QB in the second half of the season at all. His numbers declined substantially across the board. The more tape teams got on Smith, the more they were able to neutralize what he was able to accomplish .
It's easy to try and find a best case scenario guy and say "yeah, THAT'S who we should compare him to!!!!" Here's the problem with what you did... you took the BEST mistake-prone QB and the WORST "lack of mistakes" QB. So basically,if we assume that Wilson will be the best version of himself and Geno will be the worst version of himself, then yeah, Wilson wins hands down.
Know who else makes a crap-ton of mistakes? Mark Sanchez. Just saying. The problem with Wilson isn't his confidence, it's his MISPLACED confidence. He doesn't have a Brett Favre arm, but he plays like he does anyway.
Trying to say it's a choice between Wilson and a "guy who has a love affair with 4-yard checkdowns" is completely inaccurate and is attempting to force people into a false choice. Geno Smith isn't a 4 yard checkdown guy. In fact, thanks to the excellent information provided in the posts above, we know it's NOT like Wilson is a "gunslinger" while Geno is "Screeno." Wilson, in fact, throws short (5 yards or less) MORE often than Smith does, and he goes intermediate-to-deep at pretty close to the same rate.
Yet Smith threw INTs at a staggering 1.15% rate, while Wilson threw them at a rate of 3.24%. That's almost THREE TIMES as often. You can try and shrink the sample size as much as you want to make Wilson look better (by using only the last half of the season), but are we really going to pick and choose like that? And what's more, isn't it just a tiny bit sad that even trying to take Smith's worst against Wilson's "normal," Smith STILL comes out ahead?
Smith, despite throwing more often, throwing fewer short routes, and throwing intermediate-to-deep just as much as Wilson, threw INTs at a much, much lower rate. That's not a matter of being protected by checkdowns. That's a matter of being better at not making poor decisions. No, Wilson didn't have 30 picks. But again, he had as many or more INTs than TDs in more 8 of 12 games this year (seriously. 8 of 12 games!). That shouldn't be ignored. Now, I'll give you that in 2011, Wilson threw only 6 picks (the same as Smith this year). But why go with the guy who could only do it one year over the guy who never threw more than 7 INTs in three years of starting?
So it's not a choice between Eli Manning and Blaine Gabbert. It's a (best case scenario for each) choice between Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, Eli's good. But if you can get everything Eli does WITHOUT the mistakes, don't you do it?
I gave you a guy that made a ton of mistakes and was successful. Sure there are examples on either side of the argument good or bad. But I want a guy that willing to throw the ball down the field. We haven't had that in KC in quite some time. And when you factor in drops, Smith wasn't that much more accurate down the field than Wilson was 20 yards or more. Where Smith was much better in , was the 6-20 range. But he also had 2 elite receivers in space and he threw a lot of crossing routes. A lot of those short passes from Smith were designed plays. Bubble screens and quick slants.
How many of those short passes by Wilson were out of necessity? Passes he just had to get rid of before he was rammed in the dirt? He had guys in his face almost every snap. I hardly saw anytime where he had a chance to set up and drive the ball to his wideouts . Smith seemed to me to go to the check down rather than trying to make plays down the field , despite the fact he had 2 elite speed receivers. Who was Wilson going to throw the ball downfield to? Hamilton isn't a speed guy. Who is the guy that can beat double coverage on the Arkansas team, who? Hamilton struggles to get separation against quicker DB's. Austin and Bailey excelled at that
And you still haven't explained to me how Wilson is mistake prone. Your boy Smith has six fewer picks than Smith did the last two years.That is only 3 more int's a year. That isn't enough for me to say he is significantly less mistake prone than Wilson is. You also conveniently ignored all the fumbles Smith had this year. Smith was sacked nineteen times and had I believe twelve fumbles. That is not protecting the ball .
And hell yes I am going to compare the two the second half of the season. Wilson missed a game and a half at the beginning of the season. And Geno played Baylor that had the 119th pass defense in NCAA!! Do you think I am impressed by that? How about we compare the last six games by both guys.
TD to INT last 6 game Geno 15-6
TD to INT last 6 games Wilson 12-8.
Three more TDís and 2 fewer picks isnít that much difference.
Passing yards per game last 6 games Geno 288
ppg last 6 games Wilson 300.
What do you know, Wilson had more passing yards than Smith! He did it against SEC defenses, too. Yeah, I know, supposedly they played equal ranked defenses. But if push came to shove, I'll bet SEC defenses are a lot more talented than Big 12 defenses even though they may be ranked the same.
completion % last 6 games Geno 69.2
completion % last 6 games Wilson 66.6
Again, weíre picking gnat pooh out of pepper. Geno was slightly more accurate than Wilson. But Wilson's comp% went up over 6 points from the previous 5 games, while Smiths dropped over 7 points. Still, I wouldnít say Smith massively outplayed Wilson on accuracy.
QBR last 6 games Smith156.4
QBR last 6 games Wilson 147.2
A 9 point difference seems like a crapload right? Well remember, this is college football we are talking about here. They have a funky rating system. In college guys get QBRís up into the 200ís. In the NFL the most your QBR can get is 158. SO in reality a 9 point difference isnít near as big as it would be in the NFL. AND strangely enough, Smiths QBR the last 6 games is almost identical to what Wilson put up his last 6 games.
So all in all it is very close between the 2 the final 6 games of the season (minus the bowl game), Smith outplayed Wilson slightly. But it isnít near the chasm you make it out to be.
To address those one at at time... Have you noticed when calling for Wilson over Smith as a guy who throws it downfield, your best argument is that Smith "wasn't much more accurate down the field?" When did being slightly worse become an argument to take a guy? That's insane. Since you're talking about "much better" in the 6-20 yard range (which Smith was), might as well throw the exact numbers out there.
78% vs. 64% in the 6-10 yard range.
64% vs. 54% in the 11-20 yard range.
Those aren't just gaps... they're freaking CANYONS. Wilson is nowhere even close to as accurate as Smith is in the entire 6-20 yard range. Hey, just out of curiosity, what type of throw do you think is the most common in the NFL? Smith is more accurate in EVERY PART OF THE FIELD than Wilson, and it's not close anywhere except the 20+yard range (where Smith, naturally, still wins the day).
And if you're going to talk about Smith's offense helping him be more accurate, shouldn't it get mentioned that Wilson threw short slants and crosses a TON? Their entire offense looked to be built on those throws, which are (as you well know) very, very high percentage throw. Both offenses were tailored towards high percentage throws a great deal of the time. Smith was just much, much, much MUCH better at it. You can say all day that Smith constantly checked down, but any kind of film review shows him taking plenty of shots downfield. In fact, that's where Bailey picked up many of his yards. The idea that Smith doesn't throw the ball deep is absolutely gutted at the first glance of statistics and film study. Did he check down sometimes? Absolutely. Was he successful when he did it? Beyond a shadow of a doubt. Is this likely a HUGE reason why he avoided interceptions? Yup. Man, I'd sure hate to have a guy on my team who's capable of throwing the deep ball but picks the correct moments to do so. That sounds awful
And are you REALLY trying to downplay Hamilton's skills as Wilson's top target? He's a bigger, stronger receiver than either Bailey or Austin, and his speed is just as good as Bailey's. He's a better route runner than Austin (whom I frankly think is overrated and will be an inferior receiver to Hamilton and Bailey at the next level). Give me a break. Half the people I've talked to who have watched Wilson's throws this year walked away more impressed with Hamilton than Wilson. He's more than good enough to be a go-to guy, and his "lack of separation ability" is a weak sauce excuse for Wilson not playing as well as Geno. And while we're talking about receivers, I wonder why no one ever mentions McKay, a 6'6" 4.4 40 running freak of nature who Tyler Wilson had at his disposal? Dude didn't do much under Wilson. It's tough to not wonder what Smith could've done with a receiver like that, seeing as he was able to use a smaller, slower Bailey as a deep threat.
Fact is, there was talent at receiver in Arkansas. Wilson didn't take advantage to the extent Smith did in West Virginia.
As far as Wilson being mistake-prone when compared to Wilson, you're looking at the wrong numbers. Total INT's doesn't tell the story. INT percentage does. Wilson threw more picks despite throwing fewer passes. I don't think that really needs to be explained. Smith's fumble issues are worth noting, for sure. Of course, anytime someone cites stats to me and says "believe it, just because" I get a little skeptical. Where did you get those stats, and what were Wilson's (I notice you left those out). Get back to me with CITED stats and COMPARATIVE stats, and let's talk.
Finally, back to the second half of the season argument. You say "Geno played Baylor" and then just move on, as though that proves we can't compare the entire season of the two. Care to explain to me why we can't compare Wilson against "powerhouses" like Louisiana-Monroe (108th in pass defense) and Jacksonville State (not even LISTED in the top 120 defenses)? You can't. Because the only real reason to leave them out is that Wilson played "meh" against those two defenses, while Geno took cupcakes and ripped them apart. I mean, c'mon man, it's college football. They both got their shots at bad defenses. Geno just destroyed them while Wilson didn't play any better than normal (well, I suppose that's not fair, since half of Wilson's 4 games with more TDs than INTs came against those lousy defenses. But I digress). And it's not like QBs never make great plays against bad defenses, or that bad defenses never get pressure or have coverage. That's why it's critical to watch the film and not just dismiss the games against cupcakes (for both guys).
But let's say I roll with you on this "let's only look at half the season" argument. Fine. Wow, Wilson passed for 12 more yards per game! A whole first down? Geno, in the meantime, passed for 3 more TDs, 2 fewer INTs, and completed passes at a higher percentage. If we extrapolate their numbers over a 16 game season in that time, here's what we get...
Tyler- 4,800 yards, 32 TDs, 21 INTs
Geno- 4, 608 yards, 40 TDs, 16 INTs
I don't know about you, but 56 extra points and 5 fewer turnovers seems to me like a much bigger deal than a shade under 200 yards. I'm weird like that. I really dig points and not giving the ball to the other team. And again, even if we decide the difference "isn't much" (even though it kinda is), the argument STILL boils down to "Wilson's only a little worse." Why take the slightly worse guy when you can just go ahead and draft the better one?
Talk to me about pocket presence. I just got done watching Tyler's snaps against Rutgers, and I feel like I'm seeing a guy who is panicking at the slightest signs of pressure. On multiple snaps, despite no pressure, he started dancing around the pocket and/or took off running to his right. Do we really want another guy who has been pounded into having happy feet?
Interesting to note , Smith 8.12 YPA , Wilson 8.43 YPA. Smith has not one, but two guys that have elite quickness and separation ability. When watching Smith it was hard not to notice how open Bailey and Austin got. You really can't double one because the other would eat you alive.So you are kind of screwed either way as a CB. Who did Wilson have? Coby Hamilton, a guy that is at best a number two possession receiver. Hamilton is better than Bailey??? Ok now I am worried about you. If you truly think that, it is time to put the crack pipe down and I'm calling for an intervention.
Hamilton is nowhere near the pro prospect Bailey is. Bailey is a border line number one guy in the NFL (as far as talent goes). Hamilton might develop into a solid number two guy at best. He struggles to get open a lot of the time. So I think the combination of Smith having better talent to throw to, Wilson not having time to step up in his throws a lot of the time, drops and some mechanical issues that were the major part in the disparity between the two in terms of completion percentage. Again, that is correctable with proper coaching and getting better talent around him
Speaking of which, the coaching situation between the two was a canyon, to borrow your phrase. Smith couldn't have asked for a better coach in Dana Holgerson. Every QB Holgorson ever coached has put up massive numbers in Dana's system even going back to his days at Valdosta State. Guys like Kilff Kingsbury and Case Keenan flourished under Holgorsen. When Smith got the start in 2010, he completed 64.8% of his passes for 2763 yards , 7.42 YPA, 24 TD-&INT. His numbers went up every year mainly because of great coaching. Coaching matters does it not? All I hear from you and everyone on here is how much talent KC has . But this team was under coached and that was the reason this team faltered. That is why Urban Meyer and Nick Saban make the big money. Because coaching matters , especially in the development of young players. Wilson basically had a year off in his development because Petrino decided he would rather mess around with interns than coach.
Wilson got no direction from his coaches, he got no help from his supporting cast. Yet, he still put up solid numbers considering all the circumstances. He was pretty much the only guy AR had to lean on . And when it was all said and done, Wilson was two games worse as a staring QB than Smith was.
I can understand why you have trepidation about comparing the second half stats of Wilson and Smith(and Wilson got knocked out of the ULL game, kind of hard to put up numbers on the bench don't you think). After Smith got all his cupcakes out of the way, he put up similar numbers as Wilson when they faced roughly the same level of competition. You can say Wilson didn't put up great numbers yadda yadda all you want. But his numbers never dipped. They stayed about the same in the last 6 games as they were in the first 5. Overall he was pretty consistent throughout the year. The same cannot be said of Smith. His numbers fell to earth the last 6 games. And you dodged the question, why the decline in numbers? When teams got film on Smith his numbers went way down. He was far less effective as a QB. His best games came against Marshall and Kansas and Baylor, all horrible defenses. In fact, he only played 1 top 20 defense(TCU 16th) all year. Wilson dropped 419 3 TD's on Rutgers that was 10th in the country in total defense. He dropped 359 on LSU that was 8th in total defense. He hung 277 yards and 2 TD's on SC that was 20th in defense and had the best player in the country on their d-line. This is without elite WR talent to throw to.
And Smith is very shaky in the pocket. Nineteen sacks on the season and that is in a quick strike offense where the ball came out quickly. I saw numerous times where he didn't sense/see the pass rush and took costly sacks and had killer fumbles(he had two in the bowl game alone). He isn't very good at avoiding the pass rush. Can you imagine how many sacks he would have had behind Wilson's line? It would have been a slaughter.
Smith had better coaching, a QB's dream as far as system goes and 2 NFL caliber receivers on his team. Wilson had a year off in his development, a bad o-line, 1 guy that has NFL talent, a coach that was the butt of jokes in AR , a early season injury and he still put up solid numbers. Wilson will get the best coaching of his life in KC. He is only going to get better here. I know I know, Smith will too if he is drafted here. But I go back to the fact that Wilson has all the intangibles you want in a franchise QB.
There is more than just having a great arm to be successful at the the next level. Just ask Drew Brees or Eli Manning about that if you don't believe me. The major criticism I hear of Wilson is he has too much confidence in his arm. That he will throw some INT's. Guess what, so does every QB not named Tom Brady. Drew Brees doesn't have a big arm. But do you think he lacks confidence in his arm? Hell no, he will air it out with anyone! He throws a lot of picks too. But give me Brees over almost any QB in the NFL. You know who doesn't have confidence in his arm? Matt Cassel. Ya, he doesn't make many mistakes (well before this year anyway). But he will never make that big throw down the field either.
There are worse things than having confidence in your arm as a QB. Especially when you have a strong one like WIlson has. I don't think Smith has that same confidence. He doesn't throw guys open very often. Instead he is just content checking down if his first guy isn't open. That is a reason for many of his short throws. That mentality doesn't win long term. You have to be willing to take a chance in the pocket at times to win in the NFL these days. So even what you see as a strength for Smith, I see as a negative in the full context of what the NFL has become. Not making a mistake and making the play are two different things
See, now I KNOW you'll say anything to try and win an argument. To try and prove your point, you say...
"Hamilton is nowhere near the pro prospect Bailey is."
Hmmm... let's take a gander at what those who AREN'T trying to win a debate say, shall we? Since Bailey is just SUCH a better prospect, there's no way that Hamilton should be rated above Bailey anywhere, right? Searching... searching... oh, this is just too good. I am literally writing the responses of the FIRST THREE draft sites I looked at.
CBS WR Rankings- Hamilton at 12, Bailey at 14
Walterfootball WR Rankings- Hamilton at 8, Bailey at 10
fftoolbox WR Rankings- Hamilton at 8, Bailey at 10
Gotta check things out before blurting things out, my man! Does that mean I think Hamilton will be the better pro? Not really. I LOVE Bailey as a prospect. But I love Hamilton too. The point is that I (and, it would seem the vast majority of other draftniks) see them as pretty equal prospects. That's what you get for trying to take my crack pipe. Now that we've hashed that out, let's get back to quarterbacks.
Hey, you're absolutely right, Wilson does have a better YPA average than Smith. Cool. If we're going to make a big deal of the ONE stat where Wilson has a slight (and let's face it it's slight) advantage over Smith, let's make sure to include the fact that in 2011 (you know, when Wilson was throwing to THREE future pro WR's) Smith had the same YPA as Wilson (well, .03 YPA better, but that's practically zilch). So do we really want to pull at that thread? Does it really tell us ANYTHING? I say not really. If it's an attempt to imply Wilson goes deep more often, we've already got those numbers. That ship has sailed. We know Smith goes deep only SLIGHTLY less often than Wilson, and that he has a higher completion percentage when he does. We know Smith throws over 5 yards more often than Wilson, and is SIGNIFICANTLY more accurate when he does. So... what's your point?
Now the coaching issue, that's worth noting. Hey, it's absolutely true that Holgerson gets stats out of his QBs. I agree that it should absolutely be looked into, but you've overlooked a slight problem. Let's look at those sophomore numbers from Geno again, shall we?
24 TDs, 7 INTs, 64.8% completions, 7.4 YPA.
Huh, that's weird. I feel as though that looks very similar too another season we could look at...
24 TDs, 6 INTs, 63.1% completions, 8.31 YPA.
Know whose stats those are? You do, don't you? Tyler Wilson, 2011. The year he was throwing to 3 future NFL WRs. The year he was coached by a legend. His absolute best college season. With UNDOUBTEDLY more talent surrounding him than Geno had in 2010. Yet the years are remarkably similar. Now I'll admit, Wilson destroyed him on total yards... of course, he also threw the ball about 60 more times. In other words, Geno's WORST year in his WORST situation is withing spitting distance of Wilson's BEST year (seriously, the man was throwing to THREE future NFL receviers!) in his BEST situation. And this is when Geno was a sophomore, without the benefit of several years of coaching from Petrino (which Wilson had had by 2011). So... why exactly should Geno be embarrassed by those stats? He shouldn't. At least not if he's holding himself up to Tyler Wilson's best year as a comparison.
Oh, and to swing back to your "Wilson didn't have time to step into his throws" argument... c'mon, man. Did he get pressured? Yes. Was he even close to as under fire as you make him out to be? No. Dude was sacked 14 times last year. 5 less than Geno. So... uh... really? And before you say, "yeah, well, Wilson's so awesome he gets the throws off," allow me to retort with Wilson's 2011 season, where he took 26 sacks. Crap, man, if we're gonna defend a guy based on getting hit all the time, maybe we should be talking about Glennon. Wilson wasn't even CLOSE to getting sacked as often as many, many other QB's in college football. And no, sacks aren't everything. But are you really going to stand there and claim a guy who was sacked 14 times ALL YEAR was hit so much more than every other QB? Sorry, it doesn't hold up. And it doesn't in film review either.
Yep, I said it. Just re-watched the game against Tulsa to confirm it (I've watched them all but wanted a refresher) Wilson gets hit at times, sure. He also has plenty of plays where pressure isn't any kind of problem in the pocket, but he gets happy feet or impatient. I mean good God, the pick he throws at the 4:09 mark was AWFUL, and had absolutely nothing to do with pressure. Clean pocket, he pump fakes and throws a side-armed duck of a pass. Ugh. It's those kind of throws I'm talking about. You just don't see Geno do that kind of thing very often (not saying never). With Wilson, you see it at least once a game. That's my problem with him. Boneheaded, sidearm passes.
Anyways, back on topic. Enough is enough on this "oh, poor Tyler Wilson, he was just getting hit every single play!" That's not what was going on. Fortunately, we'll be linking every single "vs" video I can find here so people can see for themselves. Sure, Wilson got hit at times. But it's not like he never had a clean pocket to work with, or even close. It's another weak sauce excuse as to why Wilson made some boneheaded mistakes this year and spent way too much time looking at the pass rush.
And seriously, we're still on this "second half of the year" argument? Smith outplayed Wilson. I have no trepidation. We've already done the comparison. I have no idea why you're still talking about those second half stats. They favor Geno. TDs, INTs, completion percentage... it all favors Wilson. Please, by all means, keep making my argument for me by admitting that when they faced equal competition down the stretch Geno put up better numbers. I love it. I want you to tell me more about Geno putting up better numbers. Regarding the "decline" on Geno's part? I'd say it's simple math... you're bound to eventually stop putting up video-game-like numbers and as you put it, "fall back to earth" (which is apparently shorthand for, "still outplay Tyler Wilson"). The idea that teams all of a sudden had tape on the guy after he'd been starting all his junior and sophie years and THAT'S what brought the numbers down is asinine, and a weak attempt to create an appearance of a problem. Opposing teams had his tape all year.
And you can shout to the high heavens all you want about Wilson's "big games" against Rutgers, LSU, and SC. You seem to have left out some teeny, tiny details. Like the fact that in those three games you're trying to say were "good games against good defenses" Wilson threw 5 INTs. Or his 58.3% completion percentage. Yeah, he sure showed those defenses what's up. Or something.
Now Smith's pocket presence... that we DO need to talk about. For starters, the ridiculous rhetoric that he's "shaky" in the pocket is way, way off. He definitely keeps his eyes downfield too much and needs to learn to watch the rush more. Of course, it could be worse. He could have happy feet and watch the pass rush TOO MUCH. Like Wilson. Just saying. If I'm going to gamble on which trait is easier to coach, I'm gonna go with the guy who's keeping a cool head back there. It's definitely something both of them need to work on. I just would much rather have a guy whose problem ISN'T getting happy feet in the pocket (I've seen that enough with Cassel). And that guy is Smith.
I'll tell you what, it sounds like you're boiling down to your conclusions in that last paragraph, so I'm going to retort, give my final thoughts, then let you have the last (brief) word. Wilson had superior coaching his first 3 years in college than Smith ever had (don't even try to tell me that Petrino is the inferior coach. C'mon). Despite all the excuses thrown his way this year, Wilson wasn't all THAT much better his junior year (with THREE NFL-level talent receivers to throw to). Wilson's OL woes are an overrated meme, and his terrible decisions/throws weren't limited to plays where he was getting hit by a long shot. The argument that Wilson has "more confidence" in his arm flies in the face of the fact that Geno went intermediate-to-deep just as often, and did it better. Wilson makes more mistakes without making the big plays to make up for it. The comparison to Drew Brees, who is MUCH more accurate than Wilson, is laughable.
In short, pretty much every argument for Wilson over Geno is a tired, overhyped meme that doesn't ring true when someone really examines the facts or watches the tape. Geno checks down more? Nope, not by the numbers. Wilson's OL was so much worse he NEVER had a shot? Not by the numbers or by the tape. Geno was the only QB with talent to throw to? Nope (especially when you compare Wilson's 2011, with Geno's 2011 and 2012). Wilson's "stronger arm?" If Wilson's got a stronger arm I'll eat my hat. There's nothing when you come down to it. Geno's more accurate in all areas of the field, much more calm in the pocket, doesn't make nearly as many bad throws/decisions, and doesn't have 2 concussions. Watching the tape, it's clear. Geno's our guy.
I think Bailey is a superior talent to Hamilton at WR. Hamilton has inconsistent hands and doesn't have the speed of Bailey. I would go so far as to say Bailey is the best WR in the draft. But that is a whole other story.
As far as your other "points" go, I just knew you were going to bring up the first years these guys started. That is my whole point. Wilson had just as good of numbers as your boy Smith in their first year of starting. Difference is, Smith got to grow and develop as a QB while Wilson did not. I'm shocked you downplay the importance of coaching. Look at Brees this year. He's a HOF QB, yet he struggled this year without Sean Payton. So ya, of course WIlson was going to struggle this year without coaching. He isn't superman.
As far as Wilson and his concussions go, I find it funny that a guy who would've given the farm for RG3 is now all of a sudden worried about Wilson's head injuries. Didn't RG3 have 2 concussions and ACL surgery? I know head injuries are a big deal but c'mon. How many young QB's have had their career ended by a concussion? Probably not many. Let's not make him out to be Billy Bob from Not Another Teen Movie, one more hit away from being a cup of jello.
Does Wilson get in a hurry sometimes? Sure. Does he have some mechanical issues? Sure. Guess what, so does every QB coming out not named Aikman or Peyton Manning. His issues are correctable. He has a nice, over the top delivery, not some windup, Tim Tebow style, funky throwing motion.
I know Wilson is a hard sell. We live in a Maddenized society where we like the flashy big stats. It's tougher to push for Wilson ebcause we see the monster numbers Smith put up and they dwarf what WIlson did. But Smith fattened up against some pretty weak teams. He was far worse in the second half of the season (which you still don't have an answer for BTW). Meanwhile Wilson stayed consistent throughout the whole season, despite the turmoil around him.
Both these guys are similar in talent. You really can't distinguish the two on just physical ability. If Wilson throws 65 yards, Smith throws 68. If Wilson runs a 4.77, Smith runs 4.74. There is so much more than arm strength, size, speed, that go into making a great QB. That is why in a close race I would rather have a guy I know has the intangibles over a guy I have serious questions about. That is why I believe Tyler Wilson is the guy for this team.