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Old 02-01-2013, 11:25 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Some employment/economic numbers from the last month/quarter/year.

As the recovery continues. There's a bunch of stuff on this but they don't all warrant their own threads so here's a compendium of economic information.

The economy last year experienced a net-improvement of 2.17 million jobs (private sector gained 2.24), which is better than every single year of the Bush Presidency except one (2005).

The jobs report of the fourth quarter of 2012 has been revised upward, now saying we added 600,000+ jobs from October through December.

The GDP actually contracted 0.1% in that quarter, however. The first contraction in 13 quarters -- though revisions will probably change that to a slight expansion -- largely because of Hurricane Sandy and vast layoffs in the defense sector.

The initial estimate is that we added 157,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate actually jumped, however, from 7.8% to 7.9%. As the economy gets better, more people are entering the job market.

The government continues to be the main holder-backer of a faster recovery, as reduced government payrolls have weighed down employment figures.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of Manufacturing activity grew to 53.1, according to the Institute for Supply Management, which is a big jump up.

The Dow jumped above 1,500 earlier this month. After today's jobs report, it launched above 1,400.

What's driving the jump up in employment? Mostly, construction, buoyed by about 30,000 new hires, which indicates more homes are being built.





You're welcome.
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Old 02-03-2013, 12:43 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
My rebuttal was that we didn't have a recovery this bad the last time we had the 2nd worst downturn in US history, so I don't see any reason why we should expect it this time on that basis alone.
I don't know what downturn you're referring to? What downturn are you referring to?

My post compared the Great Recession to the only real precedent America has seen, which was the Great Depression.

But in reaction to the Great Depression, we had a gigantic influx of federal spending to supplement demand and, as fortune would have it, history's largest land war to stimulate the economy.

The only serious federal spending we've committed to following the Great Recession was four years ago, too tepid, and it was immediately followed by three times that amount in deficit reduction.
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Old 02-03-2013, 12:44 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Because he doesn't back up any information he comes across.

No links, and he ends the article you linked to by trying to sell something.

That's not exactly what you call a remotely reliable source.


I realize the facts bothered you, and you were paralyzed to rebut them. So you took the track you took, deciding to tap out. I understand your motives and why you bailed.
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Old 02-03-2013, 12:46 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
I realize the facts bothered you, and you were paralyzed to rebut them. So you took the track you took, deciding to tap out. I understand your motives and why you bailed.
Bitch please
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Old 02-03-2013, 12:46 PM   #34
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
I realize the facts bothered you, and you were paralyzed to rebut them. So you took the track you took, deciding to tap out. I understand your motives and why you bailed.
I really have no interest in your insane citation.

If there's any reasonably sensible links you have to back up your bullshit, my ears and eyes are open.
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Old 02-03-2013, 03:19 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I don't know what downturn you're referring to? What downturn are you referring to?

My post compared the Great Recession to the only real precedent America has seen, which was the Great Depression.

But in reaction to the Great Depression, we had a gigantic influx of federal spending to supplement demand and, as fortune would have it, history's largest land war to stimulate the economy.

The only serious federal spending we've committed to following the Great Recession was four years ago, too tepid, and it was immediately followed by three times that amount in deficit reduction.
I'm referring to whatever downturn is now #3.
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Old 02-04-2013, 10:45 AM   #36
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Some decent news:

Quote:
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau.

Both exports and imports increased in November. US trade has slowed recently.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to decrease to $46.0 billion in December from $48.7 billion in November.
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Old 02-09-2013, 04:35 PM   #37
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More stuff on the trade deficit:

Trade gap shrinks, hinting at stronger economic growth
Reuters
1 day ago

The U.S. trade deficit shrank in December to its narrowest in nearly three years, suggesting the economy did much better in the fourth quarter than initially estimated.

The country's trade gap narrowed to $38.5 billion during the month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a deficit of $46 billion.

That suggests the U.S. government will revise upward its advance reading for fourth-quarter gross domestic product, which showed the economy contracted at a 0.1 percent annual rate in part because of a decline in inflation-adjusted exports.

The government had released its estimate for fourth-quarter GDP before the December trade data was available. That GDP report suggested the government was projecting a wider trade deficit in December.

Friday's data showed U.S. exports surged by $8.6 billion during the month, boosted by sales of industrial supplies, including a $1.2 billion increase of non-monetary gold. In a reflection of a boom in oil output driven by hydraulic fracturing technologies, petroleum exports rose by nearly $1 billion during the month to a record high level.

A fall in petroleum imports led overall purchases from abroad to decline $4.6 billion in December. For the entire year, the country's imports of crude oil fell to their lowest levels since 1997 in terms of volume.

For all of 2012, the U.S. trade gap fell by 3.5 percent to $540.4 billion. Running trade deficits means the country bleeds dollars, so trade is still a drag on the U.S. economy. But rising exports are helping it to be less of a drag than in prior years.

Exports last year rose 4.4 percent.

While the overall trade deficit shrank, it grew with China during the year. That will be sure to raise hackles from American manufacturers who want the United States to pressure the Asian giant more to strengthen its currency.

But even the figures on China had a silver lining. While U.S. imports last year from China increased to a record high, so did America's exports to the country. America's December trade deficit with China for goods, which was not seasonally adjusted, narrowed by $4.5 billion on a drop in imports.

The U.S. trade deficit increased with the European Union last year but America's surplus with Brazil rose.
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Old 02-09-2013, 05:43 PM   #38
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Didn't spend one second reading any of this garbage.
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Old 02-09-2013, 06:24 PM   #39
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1. Direckshun is correct; PrisonBitch's source was flawed. Direckshun used reputable journalistic sources in his OP (albeit mostly ones with a liberal bent).

2. The Great Depression is not the only reference we have to look back on. The energy crises of the late '70s, the post-Civil War problems, and the Panic of 1837 come to mind.

3. That said, I think this has a pretty good case to be the "Second Worst", given if nothing else its longevity.

4. I don't buy the concept that the uptick from 17.8% unemployment to 17.9% unemployment is due to the fact that more people have entered the job force. Math tells us that in order for that to result in an increase in unemployment, some of those people (more than 17.8% of them, in fact) had to have entered the job force while being unemployed - which logically means they hadn't really entered the job force. I think it's just a garden variety upturn - and hopefully an isolated one.

5. I admit I haven't kept up on the "people leaving the work force" argument, but as it's almost exclusively championed by the super-far Obama-hatin' right, I suspect that it's them trying to find numbers to make it look like (or more like) Obama's recovery is a flop. This is hunch rather than deduction, but it smells a lot like that Unskewed Polls baloney they tried to convince everyone of a few months ago. If I'm wrong, please school me.

6. There is no number six. That's about it.
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Old 02-09-2013, 06:39 PM   #40
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
1. Direckshun is correct; PrisonBitch's source was flawed. Direckshun used reputable journalistic sources in his OP (albeit mostly ones with a liberal bent).
I cited MaddowBlog, Wall Street Journal, WaPo's WonkBlog, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and MSN Money.

I'd say that's a fair variety of a first-hand source (BLS), a second-hand source (MSN Money), and a right-leaning (WSJ), left-leaning (WonkBlog), and a leftwing outlet (MaddowBlog). Later in the thread I've cited Calculated Risk and Reuters.

I know you aren't disagreeing with me in any way, I just figured that deserves a little expounding.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
4. I don't buy the concept that the uptick from 17.8% unemployment to 17.9% unemployment is due to the fact that more people have entered the job force. Math tells us that in order for that to result in an increase in unemployment, some of those people (more than 17.8% of them, in fact) had to have entered the job force while being unemployed - which logically means they hadn't really entered the job force. I think it's just a garden variety upturn - and hopefully an isolated one.
I'm not sure where you're getting the 17.8% and 17.9%?

The unemployment rate (i.e. the U3 measurement) is now 7.9%, up from 7.8%.

The U6 measurement of unemployment, the one that rightwingers love now because it's always higher, includes the unemployed, those who've dropped out of the workforce, and the underemployed, and is just a hair above 14% and falling. And that's the highest unemployment measurement we have.

The U-3 rate inching up to 7.9% is almost certainly due to people entering the workforce, because as the OP stated, our economy gained 157,000 jobs in January.
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Old 02-09-2013, 06:56 PM   #41
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GOP congress doing a helluva job since Jan 2011. Jobs and stock market way up. No?
that is what they are paid for
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Old 02-09-2013, 07:57 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
1. Direckshun is correct; PrisonBitch's source was flawed. Direckshun used reputable journalistic sources in his OP (albeit mostly ones with a liberal bent).

2. The Great Depression is not the only reference we have to look back on. The energy crises of the late '70s, the post-Civil War problems, and the Panic of 1837 come to mind.

3. That said, I think this has a pretty good case to be the "Second Worst", given if nothing else its longevity.

4. I don't buy the concept that the uptick from 17.8% unemployment to 17.9% unemployment is due to the fact that more people have entered the job force. Math tells us that in order for that to result in an increase in unemployment, some of those people (more than 17.8% of them, in fact) had to have entered the job force while being unemployed - which logically means they hadn't really entered the job force. I think it's just a garden variety upturn - and hopefully an isolated one.

5. I admit I haven't kept up on the "people leaving the work force" argument, but as it's almost exclusively championed by the super-far Obama-hatin' right, I suspect that it's them trying to find numbers to make it look like (or more like) Obama's recovery is a flop. This is hunch rather than deduction, but it smells a lot like that Unskewed Polls baloney they tried to convince everyone of a few months ago. If I'm wrong, please school me.

6. There is no number six. That's about it.


I didn't read all of this, but from what little I gagged down, I want my 10 seconds back. Pure garbage.
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Old 02-09-2013, 08:50 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
I didn't read all of this, but from what little I gagged down, I want my 10 seconds back. Pure garbage.
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Old 02-09-2013, 08:51 PM   #44
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Old 02-09-2013, 09:39 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
For the small percentage of people who are aware that the purported decline in unemployment rates is primarily based on the mysterious rapid decline in "labor force participation rates" rather than the number of new jobs, the government has a ready and sensible-sounding explanation: the Boomers are beginning to retire in large numbers, and with an aging population, the percentage of adults who are in the workforce should logically be declining.

Based on in-depth analysis of the government's own numbers, we will present herein the true picture: 74% of the jobless who have been removed from unemployment calculations are in the 16-54 age bracket, with only 26% in the 55 and above bracket. Yes, the population is aging - but the heart of the workforce participation deception isn't about the old.


http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/WorkC.html

Just read his argument and it's garbage. There is no mysterious decline in the labor force participation rate. We know it is going to trend down for the foreseeable future due to boomers leaving the workforce.

This guy has zero understanding (or is intentially leaving it out) of how and why the BLS adjusts certain things.

And he's an inflationista/gold bug.
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