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Old 01-25-2013, 04:27 PM  
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***OFFICIAL*** 2013 STL Cardinals Thread

From Bernie's column:

People have asked me why we’re not more emotional,” Matheny said in his office after Sunday’s game. “They say that we look subdued, always intense. That our actions are methodical, robotic at times. That’s what got us here. This isn’t the time to change it.”

It’s hard to argue with the manager’s assessment. The Cardinals finished with 97 victories, most by a Cards team since 2005, and tied with Boston for No. 1 in the majors this year.


Their 54-27 showing at Busch Stadium matches the 1985 team for the best single-season home winning percentage (.667) by the Cardinals since 1944.

A postseason theme has emerged, and it echoes the mantra that surfaced before the start of 2013: remember the fall of 2012. Remember falling to San Francisco in the NLCS.


The Cardinals’ veterans still haven’t forgotten. They still aren’t over it. It’s why Matheny resists GM John Mozeliak’s urgings to smile and put on a happier face.


Here's the most impressive aspect of the Cardinals' division championship: they prevailed over two other outstanding teams, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.



The 97-win Cardinals were better this year (regular season) than they were in 2011, when they won 90 games, and 2012, when they won 88.
Here are a few numbers that help put the Cardinals' Central title and No. 1 NL seed in perspective:



* Since MLB switched to a three-division format in each league in 1994, this was only the sixth time that a division had three 90-plus win teams. St. Louis won 97, Pittsburgh 94, and Cincinnati 90.
* Since the format change, this was only the second time that an NL division had three 90-win teams. In 2002 the NL West had Arizona (98 wins), San Francisco (95) and Los Angeles (92).
* The 2013 Cardinals faced more esteemed and difficult competition at the top of the division than any of the division-winning teams managed by Tony La Russa.

The Pirates were hardly pushovers; the Cardinals had to work like mad and kick in with a strong finish to put the division away, and didn't clinch until Game No. 160.



The Cardinals went 9-10 against Pittsburgh this season and were 11-8 vs. Cincinnati.


The Cardinals won only three of 10 games at PNC Park in Pittsburgh and split the 10 games at Cincinnati. The Cardinals were 6-3 against both teams at Busch Stadium.


The Cardinals (1st), Pirates (3rd) and Reds (5th) ranked among the top five in wins in the NL. The three teams were among the top 11 in wins in MLB. All three teams finished in the top five in the majors for best overall ERA, and each were in the top five MLB for best starting-pitching ERA.


The original purpose to this piece was to point out that the Cardinals managed to finish with the league's best record while competing in a division that had three 90-win teams for only the second time in the last 19 years of National League baseball.



The Cardinals really earned this.
Thanks for reading ...
— Bernie

Last edited by BigRedChief; 10-02-2013 at 08:16 PM..
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Old 02-15-2013, 07:13 PM   #106
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It's more about trading two months of play for an extra year of cost control. It's a risky move.
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Old 02-15-2013, 07:17 PM   #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
It's more about trading two months of play for an extra year of cost control. It's a risky move.
So if they bring him up June 1st they get 6 years and the the 4 months of this year?
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Old 02-15-2013, 07:55 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
So if they bring him up June 1st they get 6 years and the the 4 months of this year?
Posted from another source, but accurate nonetheless:

So, a team can prevent a player from being arbitration eligible for one year by keeping them in the minors on Opening Day and not calling them up until after 17% of that season's in-season callup rookies have been added to their respective rosters. Feel free to skip this if you've already got it, but if you don't, here's an example:

Player A is on an MLB roster on Opening Day 2009, as a rookie.
Player B is called up on April 15, 2009.
Player C is called up on June 1, 2009.

Assuming all three players are not sent back down:

Player A will have three years of ML service time following the 2011 season, and will qualify for arbitration for 2012 and free agency for 2015.
Player B will likely qualify for abritration as a Super 2 following the 2011 season, and will qualify for free agency for the 2015 season.
Player C will not qualify for arbitration until completing his third full season in 2012, and will not be a free agent until the end of the 2015 season.
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Old 02-15-2013, 08:48 PM   #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
Posted from another source, but accurate nonetheless:

So, a team can prevent a player from being arbitration eligible for one year by keeping them in the minors on Opening Day and not calling them up until after 17% of that season's in-season callup rookies have been added to their respective rosters. Feel free to skip this if you've already got it, but if you don't, here's an example:

Player A is on an MLB roster on Opening Day 2009, as a rookie.
Player B is called up on April 15, 2009.
Player C is called up on June 1, 2009.

Assuming all three players are not sent back down:

Player A will have three years of ML service time following the 2011 season, and will qualify for arbitration for 2012 and free agency for 2015.
Player B will likely qualify for abritration as a Super 2 following the 2011 season, and will qualify for free agency for the 2015 season.
Player C will not qualify for arbitration until completing his third full season in 2012, and will not be a free agent until the end of the 2015 season.
so it doesn't matter when they will qualify for free agency but when they qualify for arbitration.
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Old 02-15-2013, 09:03 PM   #110
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Old 02-15-2013, 09:19 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
so it doesn't matter when they will qualify for free agency but when they qualify for arbitration.
No, it matters for both cases. In case C the player waits an extra year before hitting FA; it's just worded somewhat awkwardly.
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Old 02-17-2013, 06:56 PM   #112
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From Baseball Prospectus:
2013 St. Louis Cardinals Top 15 Prospects



As if the Cardinals big league success wasn’t enough in recent years, they also own one of the most impressive collections of minor league talent in baseball. Their top prospect is an elite talent that could be a superstar at the big league level. They have a plethora of young right-handed pitchers with big-time potential and there are new additions to the system that could help sustain the strength of the organization over the long haul. The Cardinals Top 15 is absolutely impressive and should be for the foreseeable future.
1. Oscar Taveras – OF (Last Year’s Rank: 3)
Taveras is a budding star. He is one of the best hitters in the minor leagues and drew immense praise from scouts for his hitting ability; invoking thoughts of batting titles and routine .300 seasons. His power is legitimate as well, with the potential to pop 25 home runs a year and possibly even a little more. Taveras can play anywhere in the outfield and could debut up the middle before sliding to a corner down the line. He has star-level potential and should hit in the middle of a championship lineup for a long time.
2. Shelby Miller – RHP (1)
Miller had some rough patches in 2012 but ultimately put everything together and forced his way to the big leagues. His fastball is an easy 70-grade pitch that can overpower hitters when he uses it appropriately. Miller also shows a strong curveball and the potential for an average change-up, giving him a broad arsenal that should allow him to handle hitters multiple times in a game. Miller maxes out as a number two starter and he can reach that ceiling with some improvement in his command and consistency.
3. Trevor Rosenthal – RHP (9)
With big-league dominance already in his back pocket, Rosenthal forced his way to this spot on the list. His fastball reached triple digits in short bursts and he can flash 96-97 mph velocity as a starter. His primary secondary pitches are a curveball and a cutter, followed by a change-up that flashes some average potential. Rosenthal’s ceiling as a starter isn’t very far behind Shelby Miller and he has the fallback option of becoming a truly dominating closer.
4. Carlos Martinez – RHP (4)
Martinez represents another arm with high-ceiling potential and exceptional velocity. He can run his fastball up to 96-97 mph routinely and has touched 99-100 in shorter stints. Scouts like both his curveball and change-up, though the change-up draws more consistent high-end praise. Scouts remain split regarding his future role with an equal number believing he ends up a number two or three starter, and still others maintaining their belief in his relief profile. Martinez should make a significant impact in the big leagues, regardless of his role, and that impact could begin to be felt in late 2013.
5. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (2)
I might be the biggest Jenkins apologist in the prospect community. While his numbers weren’t pretty in Low-A in 2012, his stuff remained tremendous with plus projection across the board. His fastball already sits in that range and scouts believe he could develop a plus curveball and change-up as well. Jenkins is extremely raw and will move slowly but he has an amazing ceiling that could match any of those pitchers ahead of him on this list.
6. Michael Wacha – RHP (NR)
A first round pick last year, Wacha could race to the Major Leagues before the end of his first full season in 2013. He has a quality plus fastball that occasionally spikes a little higher. He generates good angle with his fastball, helping the pitch play up a bit. I like Wacha’s curveball and believe it could miss bats in the big leagues down the line. His change-up can be a plus pitch that keeps hitters off balance and should be a reliable plus offering in the big leagues. Wacha lacks the ceiling of those ahead of him in the Cardinals organization, but carries far less risk as he tries to reach his mid-rotation ceiling. Editor’s Note: I transposed Wacha’s CB and CH from my notes and have adjusted the write-up accordingly. Thank you to those that pointed out the mix up via email.
7. Patrick Wisdom – 3B (NR)
Wisdom’s power and defense stand out as really impressive tools and make him a serious big league prospect. He is a physical guy with tons of strength and while he is not quick, he moves well at third base, has good hands and shows a plus arm. His power is evident both in batting practice and in games and while he has plenty of swing and miss in his game, he can reach his power and could hit 20-25 home runs a year while hitting .250-.260. Wisdom will need to adjust to higher-caliber pitching but once he begins to settle in, he could move quickly.
8. Kolten Wong – 2B (5)
Wong is very likely to be an everyday Major League second baseman but he is unlikely to develop into a star. Wong is a quality hitter with plus potential and a good approach at the plate. He can find the gaps at times but has below-average overall power. He is a good defender that plays the position instinctually and shows a good arm. He is a baseball rat that gets the most out of his tools and should be in the big leagues late in 2013.
9. Matt Adams – 1B (6)
Adams still has a chance to hold down first base for the Cardinals but he’s going to have to hit the next time he gets a shot at the highest level. He is a solid hitter but likes to swing the bat and scouts began to view him as a classic bad-ball hitter in 2012. He can get away with that because of his bat-to-ball skills and raw power, but he doesn’t project to mash in the big leagues; instead hitting .260-.270 with 20-25 home runs.
10. Charlie Tilson – OF (12)
Tilson’s 2012 season was ravaged by injury but that shouldn’t push him off the prospect map. He is a really good athlete with fantastic instincts for the game. He plays hard and has an up-the-middle profile on defense that further enhances his prospect stock. He has hitting potential and the bat speed necessary to show at least gap power down the line. Tilson has the potential to be a very good everyday player.
11. Carson Kelly – 3B (NR)
Kelly needs considerable work and will take time along the developmental path, but he does have the potential to become a very good prospect. His defense at third base needs the most work and many pro scouts didn’t see a future for him at the hot corner. He has average hitting potential and plus raw power that could combine to make an impact at third base or he could just get by at first base.
12. Starlin Rodriguez – 2B (NR)
Rodriguez is a very good athlete that stands out on the field with a live body and plenty of tools. He is a good hitter with some scouts believing he could hit at the plus level down the line. He drives the ball to the gap and shows the potential to pop 10-12 home runs a year. He runs well and has solid instincts on the bases where he could swipe 20-25 bases at his peak. Defensively, Rodriguez is still settling in at second base and he has the athleticism to handle another position, possibly center field.
13. James Ramsey – OF (NR)
The Cardinals took some heat for popping Ramsey in the first round and while it appeared they were “going cheap” with the pick, the Cardinals truly believe in his future. Ramsey is loaded with average to solid-average tools and has a hard-nosed style of play that endears him to teammates and coaches. He is a solid hitter with average pop and average defensive potential in center field. It’s not a flashy profile, but he has a big league floor and the ceiling of a solid everyday guy.
14. Alexander Reyes – RHP (NR)
Reyes received $950,000 from the Cardinals after establishing his residency in the Dominican Republic after moving there from New Jersey. He has a prototypical pitcher’s frame with good present velocity in the low-90s and the ability to touch 94-95 mph. He shows some feel for both a curveball and change-up but they need work and repetition. Reyes is a long way from the big leagues and his ultimate ceiling is still uncertain, but his raw ingredients are extremely intriguing and worthy of notice.
15. Stephen Piscotty – 3B (NR)
Piscotty was a fringy first round pick that the Cardinals pulled the trigger on in the supplemental round. He is a solid hitter with good doubles power and the potential for 10-15 home runs once he settles into the pro game. He doesn’t profile well at third base and will have to maximize all of his offensive gifts to hang on an outfield corner. Piscotty could reach the upper levels of the system quickly and has the work ethic to transform himself into a big league player.
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Old 02-18-2013, 06:45 AM   #113
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I've had conversations on twitter with Jenkins & Jordan Swagerty (who would be high on this list if not for TJ surgery), both seem like great guys, I think Jenkins' upside is as high as any pitcher in the system. He was also recruited to play qb at Baylor, so must be a pretty damn good athlete.
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Old 02-18-2013, 08:53 AM   #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
No, it matters for both cases. In case C the player waits an extra year before hitting FA; it's just worded somewhat awkwardly.
That was my understanding as well but then I read somewhere that it just creates a 4th arbitration eligible year rather than only 5 years of team control. In other words, Super 2 players are still under team control for 6 seasons, you just have to go to arbitration for 4 of them.

EDIT: Found the article I was looking for:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind...ess/super-two/

A year of service time in the major leagues is 172 days. So under scenario B, not calling that player up until April 15 should be long enough to keep him from accruing the 172 days needed for a full year of service time.

Evan Longoria is a very good example of this. He was only in the minors for the first 2 weeks of 2008, but that would've been enough to keep him from getting to 172 days and wouldn't have cost the team a year of team control.

Super 2 status is arbitration eligibility, That's the 'June 1' date you so often see, though even that isn't a bright line rule. FA eligibility is a different animal and is based exclusively on service time. I believe the Cards would only have to keep Tavares in AAA for 2-3 weeks to keep from losing the extra year of team control, though they would lose a season of pure cost control by doing so.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:15 AM   #115
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You can control a player for about 6.8-6.9 years at this point.

If you're trying to control them for an extra year, a lot of teams will go conservative in year one and keep them down an extra week or two past what was projected as necessary to retain that extra year of control, just to be safe.

Fantasy owners hate it, but I expect both the Cardinals and Rays will do it with Taveras and Myers, respectively.

BTW, I would bet on your guy being more of an instant-impact type. He's a little farther away, but he hasn't shown the swing-and-miss tendencies Myers did last year.
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Old 02-18-2013, 10:17 AM   #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
You can control a player for about 6.8-6.9 years at this point.

If you're trying to control them for an extra year, a lot of teams will go conservative in year one and keep them down an extra week or two past what was projected as necessary to retain that extra year of control, just to be safe.

Fantasy owners hate it, but I expect both the Cardinals and Rays will do it with Taveras and Myers, respectively.

BTW, I would bet on your guy being more of an instant-impact type. He's a little farther away, but he hasn't shown the swing-and-miss tendencies Myers did last year.
See, but I think you dodged the question.

"An extra week or two past what was projected" speaks to Super 2 status and I don't think that has anything to do with team control. That's simply years of arbitration eligibility.

I don't think you have to keep them down past mid-April to get below the 172 day season for the purposes of reaching the 6 years of service time necessary for FA status.
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Old 02-18-2013, 11:35 AM   #117
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See, but I think you dodged the question.

"An extra week or two past what was projected" speaks to Super 2 status and I don't think that has anything to do with team control. That's simply years of arbitration eligibility.

I don't think you have to keep them down past mid-April to get below the 172 day season for the purposes of reaching the 6 years of service time necessary for FA status.
May 1-September 30 gets you to 153 days, so yeah, Mid-April should be about right. Depends on when the season starts/ends.

I think teams have been conservative with that because the mark has changed a few times over the years. Killing two birds with one stone and trying to avoid Super 2 makes sense, also, and I think that's what a lot of teams do.

Obviously, for the Cardinals, Super 2/extra year of arb matters less than to a team like KC or Tampa.
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Old 02-18-2013, 11:40 AM   #118
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May 1-September 30 gets you to 153 days, so yeah, Mid-April should be about right. Depends on when the season starts/ends.

I think teams have been conservative with that because the mark has changed a few times over the years. Killing two birds with one stone and trying to avoid Super 2 makes sense, also, and I think that's what a lot of teams do.

Obviously, for the Cardinals, Super 2/extra year of arb matters less than to a team like KC or Tampa.
Good point. For KC, that extra year of arb could mean $6-8 million and ultimately that's just not going to make/break most teams.

For the Cards, all that really matters is that extra year of team control, more for the purposes of leverage in a long-term deal than anything. Now if you try to extend him, you're buying out 1 fewer FA year and that could really mean a lot.

I was not aware that they moved the service time line much. I know it's always shifting for Super 2 status, but the service time thing seems pretty static. Ultimately I'd be a little less nervous about it now w/ the brand new CBA in place.
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2013 Adopt-A-Chief: AJ Jenkins, WR #13
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DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.DJ's left nut is obviously part of the inner Circle.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 08:41 PM   #119
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colum...e38f69399.html

What one thing doesn't go with the other thing?

  1. Non-roster outfielder Oscar Taveras made another loud noise during Thursday’s first inning at Roger Dean Stadium. With a ferocious lefthanded swing against former Westminster High talent Jacob Turner, the Cardinals’ top hitting prospect since Albert Pujols transformed a misplaced strike into a shot that cleared the right field wall for a grand slam. In his first game this spring Taveras punished an opposite-field fly ball to the left-center field warning track, where a circus catch denied him extra bases. The following day Taveras yanked a ground-rule double off the right-center field track.
    Taveras is this camp’s bright shiny object, its unopened Christmas gift. He exudes a quality Cardinals manager Mike Matheny describes as “a presence” in the batter’s box.
    His swing is always “on time,” according to Matheny, meaning that Taveras unerringly squares a round ball with the round barrel of his bat. There is no more desirable quality for a position player. Baseball American anointed Taveras its second-most prized position prospect.
  2. For Mozeliak, something bad would have to occur for Taveras to be on the opening day 25-man roster. Indeed, it makes more sense to the organization that first baseman Matt Adams make the club as a bench player than Taveras.
Im not buying this. With Beltrans balky knees, Jay's road woes, Halliday could use more rest over the season I think you could find plenty of at bats even if everyone stays healthy all season.
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BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 10:36 PM   #120
'Hamas' Jenkins 'Hamas' Jenkins is offline
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I'm telling you, BRC, there is no ****ing way they burn that cost-controlled year. No ****ing way.
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'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.'Hamas' Jenkins is obviously part of the inner Circle.
 
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