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Old 02-16-2013, 01:15 PM  
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is offline
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Fair value for Bowe: 5 years, 58m, 20m guaranteed.

Per this very insightful breakdown.

http://overthecap.com/estimating-the...r-dwayne-bowe/

It's long but here's the meat:

Quote:
Comparable Players

Most likely Bowe has two players in mind when looking for a new deal- Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson, who both signed new contracts in 2012. I also want to look at the performance of two older players, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson, who both signed new contracts back in 2010. The table below compares the 3 year averages of each player prior to their extension:



Quote:
These are 3 year averages for D. Jackson and Bowe but only 2 year averages for V. Jackson since he held out all but 5 games of the 2010 season.

The numbers are adjusted for games missed to not inflate the performance of the others on the team when the player in question was injured.


Quote:
Now we can see how favorably Bowe compares to Jackson. Bowe was a more valuable player to the Chiefs than Jackson was to the Chargers and perhaps that is why the Chiefs are rumored to now want to keep him in the fold.

I think the most striking stat is the interception rate which pointed to Jackson seeing a lot of passes attempted for him getting picked off compared to Bowe. These numbers tell me that Bowe is a clear number 1 and was doing some pretty impressive things in Kansas City with almost no talent around him.
Quote:
Based on the comparative performance I am going to push and say on average Bowe is worth about 9.5% more than Jackson, which is pretty much the upper bound of his deal. That would equate to a deal worth a little below $12.2 million a year.

Now I don’t think that will happen. Based on the same analysis Vincent was about 33% more valuable than DeSean but overall his deal ended up 14.5% higher in APY. Using the same adjustment Bowe should earn a realistic deal worth 4.2% more than Jackson, equating to about $11.58 million a season.
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Old 02-19-2013, 11:36 PM   #121
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agreed. Its coming and i dont give a flying **** what any talking head says to the contrary. Even Dorsey himself. Even Yahweh the all-powerful. Eugene Geno Smith WILL BE A CHIEF.
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Old 02-19-2013, 11:45 PM   #122
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This is one of the main thing that appeals to me in terms of signing Bowe and potentially finding our franchise guy. I just want to see the man play some football with a QB who is actually like, a real QB....not one that you see starting for some QB inept team like the Chiefs who's QB's seem to be dudes you'd expect to play QB if you are a fan of a JUCO team...and your starter goes down.

In other words, I want to watch this man play with a real QB. Interested how things would turn out for him.
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Old 02-19-2013, 11:51 PM   #123
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Old 02-19-2013, 11:52 PM   #124
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agreed. Its coming and i dont give a flying **** what any talking head says to the contrary. Even Dorsey himself. Even Yahweh the all-powerful. Eugene Geno Smith WILL BE A CHIEF.
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So. Much. Win.

Geno to Bowe, I can taste it.
Seriously, you guys are ****ing creepy
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:07 AM   #125
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Seriously, you guys are ****ing creepy
Can feel it too.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:23 AM   #126
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The talent is there, and I've reached the breaking point. It is what it is.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:30 AM   #127
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So I added the up % of all of Geno's throws from 2012 minus the game Vs James Madison. I didn't take out drops although I did keep track of them.

Screens counted as 10 yards and under but I refused to track those shovel screens that WVU loved to run, so those are not added in.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:41 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by KCrockaholic View Post
So I added the up % of all of Geno's throws from 2012 minus the game Vs James Madison. I didn't take out drops although I did keep track of them.

Screens counted as 10 yards and under but I refused to track those shovel screens that WVU loved to run, so those are not added in.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:49 AM   #129
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I also have 2012 Geno numbers vs the blitz... If wanted.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:50 AM   #130
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I also have 2012 Geno numbers vs the blitz... If wanted.
please!
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:57 AM   #131
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Threw 9 TD's against the blitz to only 1 INT which just so happened to come on Geno's only incompletion against KU. On that play Geno expected the WR to come back to the ball. The safety just jumped the route, but really Bailey needed to come back to the ball. It was thrown over the intermediate middle of the field with trash at the feet.

He completed 62% vs the blitz. Remember this doesn't include James Madison which he destroyed so I can only assume his % would be higher if I had added that cake walk, but that's the reason I didn't.

He does have a tendency to run when pressured, but only if he sees a free gap.

His game Vs TX Tech he only completed 2 of 8 vs the blitz. He got to a point where he was just throwing the ball up for grabs, and one of those deep incomplete passes was a drop. He finished that game going 0-6 in the deep left VS TX Tech.

Kansas State had ZERO blitzes. They rushed 4 all game and got pressure throughout.

Meanwhile he torched Maryland. 16 of 20 vs Maryland and was extremely accurate in all zones of the field.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:11 AM   #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic View Post
So I added the up % of all of Geno's throws from 2012 minus the game Vs James Madison. I didn't take out drops although I did keep track of them.

Screens counted as 10 yards and under but I refused to track those shovel screens that WVU loved to run, so those are not added in.
****ing incredible numbers. Tweet that shit to D Bowe and mail him some kleenex and jergens.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:18 AM   #133
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Well one thing that really stood out to me is that he isn't as good throwing to his right. When he has to open his hips and reset his feet he's not completely comfortable.

BUT I also have evidence that shows it's just a common thing among all right handed quarterbacks.

In the 5 games I've done of Mike Glennon so far he completes 21% to his intermediate right. And 31% to his intermediate left. Those obviously don't take out drops but NC state had a ton of drops. It's a smaller sample size compared to Geno's but if this rate keeps up look at the difference between the two.
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Old 02-20-2013, 02:44 AM   #134
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Maybe im wrong but Bowe cant sign until a week before FA starts right?
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Old 02-20-2013, 05:23 AM   #135
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Maybe im wrong but Bowe cant sign until a week before FA starts right?
If this is true, Bowe has all the leverage. KC would have to tag him and then work out a deal, which is possible. Believe there is about a week left in which teams can use the tag so we should know soon enough.
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