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Old 01-31-2013, 06:21 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Why haven't oil prices dropped like a rock?

So I admit I know very little when it comes to this subject. But weren't we told "drill baby drill" going back as far as the 2008 GOP convention, and that an oil surge from something like the Keystone Pipeline would drop gas prices down to something ridiculous like $2/gallon?

I never believed that rosy scenerio, but we've gotten the most promising news in energy independence this past year when it has now been projected for America to overtake Saudi Arabia in oil production.

So here we are, projected to be the global leader in oil production. Something that not even the Keystone Pipeline could have achieved, and goes beyond even its rosy projections in terms of oil generated for American usage.

Oil prices have largely held, have they not? My understanding (limited as it is) is that oil is priced based on the projection of how much we'll be able to acquire in the future:

Quote:
There are many factors that commodities traders look at when developing the bids that create oil prices:
  • Current supply in terms of output, especially the production quota set by OPEC. If traders believe supply will decline, they bid the price up. If they believe supply will increase, they willing to pay as much for oil, and the price falls.
  • Oil reserves, including what is available in U.S. refineries and what is stored at the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. These reserves can be accessed very easily, and can add to the oil supply if prices get too high. Saudi Arabia also has a large reserve capacity. If it promises to tap those reserves, traders allow oil prices to fall.
  • Oil demand, particularly from the U.S. These estimates are provided monthly by the Energy Information Agency . Demand usually rises during the summer vacation driving season. To predict summer-time demand, forecasts for travel from AAA are used to determine potential gasoline use. During the winter, weather forecasts are used to determine potential home heating oil use.
Our current supply is increasing, our reserves are or will be increasing.

So what's the story on this?

Thanks in advance.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:18 AM   #61
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-...er-three-years

AAA reports largest increase in gasoline prices in three years
By Ben Geman
02/20/13 04:29 PM ET

The 44-cent jump in gasoline prices over the past four weeks was the largest in well over three years, according to AAA.

“The 44-cent month-over-month increase is the most dramatic since June 2009. The largest increase on record was August 5-September 4, 2005 when prices jumped 75 cents largely because of Hurricane Katrina,” the travelers’ services group said in its weekly price analysis.

Here’s more from AAA:

Quote:
The national average has increased for 33 consecutive days, rising 46 cents or nearly 14 percent during this stretch. This is the longest streak since the price increased 44 cents over 44 days March 22-May 5, 2011. This year’s run-up is not only larger and faster than recent years but is beginning earlier. The national average in 2011 increased by just seven cents during the same 33 day period and in 2012 it increased by 18 cents.
Average nationwide prices were $3.75 per gallon Tuesday, the highest on record for the calendar day.

That’s well below record levels reached in the summer of 2008. But prices are high enough to make the pump costs, which played a big role in election-season attacks, reemerge as a political weapon for Republicans.

Republicans on Wednesday used rising gasoline prices to reiterate calls for White House approval of the Keystone XL pipeline that would bring oil from Canadian oil sands projects to Gulf Coast refineries.

“Increased global competition for oil supplies and political tensions in the Middle East are contributing to high gas prices as uncertainty swells over future supplies. To help insulate ourselves from overseas supply disruptions and future gas price spikes, America must look to expand energy production here at home and increase imports from our North American allies,” Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee said in a statement.

Critics of the proposed pipeline say it will do nothing to lower gasoline prices, which are tethered to crude oil prices set on global markets.

AAA, for its part, said this year’s earlier-than-usual rise in prices is related in part to refinery maintenance.

“One reason for the earlier price increase is the trend of U.S. refineries performing seasonal maintenance and making the switch-over to summer blend gasoline production earlier in the year. This earlier schedule is the choice of refiners and has not come in response to any change to the deadline to complete the transition to summer-blend fuels, which are required in many parts of the country and more expensive to produce,” the group said.

“Regional supplies can decrease when refineries go offline and subsequently markets are more sensitive during the changeover period to refinery disruptions that would further squeeze supply, as we have seen this year,” AAA said.
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