Mock (3/9/13)

[Direckshun]

Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs let Dorsey walk and cut Cassel.

2. They get one compensatory pick, an extra third (Carr).

3. The Chiefs try furiously to trade down, but there are no takers.

On with the show:

1. DE Star Lotulelei, Utah

Andy Reid clearly came to Kansas City to win now. And you win now by making your team better. Essentially trading out Cassel for Smith is doing just that. Keeping Bowe and Albert on hand does just that. Getting a one-year plug at CB so investments can be made at other positions does just that. And I believe the Chiefs have one more big-time investment on the horizon, be it Sean Smith, Cullen Jenkins, or Greg Jennings.

Plugging the first overall away for a right tackle doesn't help your team. Neither does investing it in a QB you don't plan to start and nobody's sure if he'll even be any good.

But replacing the mere run-plug that Glenn Dorsey was with a pocket-collapsing, QB pursuing, double-team commanding talent like Lotulelei could make life very difficult for an OL that has to face him, Poe, and Tyson Jackson.

This all assumes Lotulelei's heart checks out. I see him as a clone of Marcell Darieus, who plays pissed off and is almost unstoppable when he's on.

2. QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse

The Chiefs package their 3rd and their 4th to move up about ten or so spots when they hear some team has a hard-on for Nassib. I don't think there is much of anything in this draft to get excited about at QB. I like Geno's tools, but his inability to take over and win games spooks me if I'm at 1.1 (I still probably take him in most scenarios, though).

Nassib is one of the few QBs on this platform that has another level he plays at -- it's not an elite level, but it's better value with a 2nd than you're going to get there anywhere in this draft. He is an accurate, noodle-armed game manager at the NFL, and fits like a prototype behind Alex Smith.

3. ILB Jon Bostic, Florida

Now that everybody hates my first two picks, let's do a crowd favorite at a position of legitimate need.

5. WR Marquise Goodwin, Texas

The idea here, obviously, would be to add a ridiculous speed dimension to our offense.

6. OLB Cornelius Washington, Georgia

A huge-bodied passrusher from Georgia could be useful to provide some much-needed depth behind Hali and Houston.

7. ILB Michael Mauti, Penn State

Anything to give this defense a little more depth at the linebacking corps is welcome.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

That doesn't make them more important than the other 18 or 19 positions on the field.

Welp, you fail to explain why so I guess I'm just going to reiterate my previous post.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Welp, you fail to explain why so I guess I'm just going to reiterate my previous post.

DTs need to be big and strong. Almost every DT in the league is over 300 pounds and could throw me across a room. A freak athlete at DT will not be able to positively affect his team to the same extent that a freak athlete at DE, LB, RB, WR, etc would. Drafting one first overall just makes no sense to me.

Here's something I posted earlier in a Geno thread, it's the percentage of top 5 picks over the last 20 years at different positions that went on to have a winning career during the time they were with the team that drafted them:

LB 67%
CB 50%
QB 42%
RB 36 %
OT 21%
DE 20%
DT 11%
WR 10%
S 0%

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

DTs need to be big and strong. Almost every DT in the league is over 300 pounds and could throw me across a room. A freak athlete at DT will not be able to positively affect his team to the same extent that a freak athlete at DE, LB, RB, WR, etc would. Drafting one first overall just makes no sense to me.

Here's something I posted earlier in a Geno thread, it's the percentage of top 5 picks over the last 20 years at different positions that went on to have a winning career during the time they were with the team that drafted them:

LB 67%
CB 50%
QB 42%
RB 36 %
OT 21%
DE 20%
DT 11%
WR 10%
S 0%

That's pretty much just correlation, not causation. This clearly seems to argue that corner and linebacker is the way to win in this league.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

That's pretty much just correlation, not causation. This clearly seems to argue that corner and linebacker is the way to win in this league.

So, explain why they correlate.

[Direckshun]

Are you seriously arguing that drafting linebackers is the most certain way of achieving future success in the NFL?

Linebackers?

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

So, explain why they correlate.

How about getting a real sample size and getting back to me.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Are you seriously arguing that drafting linebackers is the most certain way of achieving future success in the NFL?

Linebackers?

I don't recall writing that, no.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

How about getting a real sample size and getting back to me.

20 years of top 5 picks is 100 players. It's fairly difficult to get a larger sample size that would pertain to such a high pick.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I don't recall writing that, no.

Wait wait wait...

So we can use that information you've cited as clear evidence that defensive tackles are amongst the least important position to draft in the Top 5, but we can't equally argue the other way, that linebackers are among the most important positions to draft in the Top 5?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

That barely improves the team, either now or in the future.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Wait wait wait...

So we can use that information you've cited as clear evidence that defensive tackles are amongst the least important position to draft in the Top 5, but we can't equally argue the other way, that linebackers are among the most important positions to draft in the Top 5?

I'd always take the QB, unless it was similar to the 1996 draft.

If there is a LB worthy of such a high pick (Von, Willie McGinest) it is a very good way of improving your team.

I'd never take a DT or OL.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I'd always take the QB, unless it was similar to the 1996 draft.

If there is a LB worthy of such a high pick (Von, Willie McGinest) it is a very good way of improving your team.

I'd never take a DT or OL.

Completely agree at 1.1

[buddha]

Who wouldn't want an elite QB at 1.1? There is not argument there, right?

What is arguable is taking a QB at 1.1 who isn't elite. Please tell us how THAT improves a team? I can rattle off dozens of QBs who were supposed to be elite, were drafted at the top of the draft, and never did shit in the NFL.

So here were are...is Geno Smith an elite QB prospect? Perhaps. However, there are a lot of "experts" out there who have serious doubts.

This NFL draft reminds me of the NBA draft from 1989...Pervis Ellison was the first pick. The whole top end of that draft ranged from slightly above average to suck. I would kill to have had the first pick last year, or the first pick next year. Bad luck.

There is no player any of us could name for 1.1 who can't be ripped to shreds immediately.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by buddha

Who wouldn't want an elite QB at 1.1? There is not argument there, right?

What is arguable is taking a QB at 1.1 who isn't elite. Please tell us how THAT improves a team? I can rattle off dozens of QBs who were supposed to be elite, were drafted at the top of the draft, and never did shit in the NFL.

So here were are...is Geno Smith an elite QB prospect? Perhaps. However, there are a lot of "experts" out there who have serious doubts.

This NFL draft reminds me of the NBA draft from 1989...Pervis Ellison was the first pick. The whole top end of that draft ranged from slightly above average to suck. I would kill to have had the first pick last year, or the first pick next year. Bad luck.

There is no player any of us could name for 1.1 who can't be ripped to shreds immediately.

Just like there are a number of cant miss prospects that were suppose to be elite and busted, there are a number of can miss prospects that weren't suppose to be elite and ended up being elite.

You'll never get ahead if you don't try.