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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

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Old 03-16-2013, 06:04 PM   #1486
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I haven't kept up much, as I generally wait until after the college bball tourney to really get into baseball, but it sounds from the last few comments that Hosmer is still struggling. I'm starting to get concerned about him... Too early to do so?
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Old 03-16-2013, 08:26 PM   #1487
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Originally Posted by 58kcfan89 View Post
I haven't kept up much, as I generally wait until after the college bball tourney to really get into baseball, but it sounds from the last few comments that Hosmer is still struggling. I'm starting to get concerned about him... Too early to do so?
I dont think its too early to be concerned. I think he needs to have a breakout year. Especially if we expect to make a playoff run.
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Old 03-16-2013, 09:12 PM   #1488
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Originally Posted by 58kcfan89 View Post
I haven't kept up much, as I generally wait until after the college bball tourney to really get into baseball, but it sounds from the last few comments that Hosmer is still struggling. I'm starting to get concerned about him... Too early to do so?
Our hand-wringing and focus on our new pitchers and what they mean to our playoff chances, presupposes that Hosmer and Moustakas will be good. (and Escobar will be decent, and Perez wont get hurt, and Butler/Gordon will hit more home runs).

If Hosmer struggles, we're in trouble.
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Old 03-17-2013, 02:31 PM   #1489
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LHP Brandon Sisk, the reliever the #Royals sent to the Angels for RHP Ervin Santana, will undergo Tommy John surgery.
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Old 03-17-2013, 02:34 PM   #1490
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Originally Posted by 58kcfan89 View Post
I haven't kept up much, as I generally wait until after the college bball tourney to really get into baseball, but it sounds from the last few comments that Hosmer is still struggling. I'm starting to get concerned about him... Too early to do so?
You are not too early to get concerned. If everything falls into place, we win 80 games. More likely we lose at least 90 yet again. Fate. Karma. Kismet. Whatever.
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Old 03-17-2013, 02:54 PM   #1491
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You are not too early to get concerned. If everything falls into place, we win 80 games. More likely we lose at least 90 yet again. Fate. Karma. Kismet. Whatever.
Did you mean to say "If everything falls into place, we win 90 games?"
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Old 03-17-2013, 02:58 PM   #1492
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Did you mean to say "If everything falls into place, we win 90 games?"
No.
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Old 03-17-2013, 03:02 PM   #1493
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LHP Brandon Sisk, the reliever the #Royals sent to the Angels for RHP Ervin Santana, will undergo Tommy John surgery.
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Old 03-17-2013, 03:15 PM   #1494
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No.
Then I strongly disagree. That's an incredibly pessimistic view.

This is what "Everything falling into place" would look like.

James Shields pitches like he has the past two seasons (3.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 230 IP, 220 Ks)

Jeremy Guthrie pitches at the level he pitched at after coming to KC, or right around there (3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 200 IP)

Ervin Santana bounces back and pitches at his peak level (3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 200 IP, 180 K)

Wade Davis improves as a starter after pitching in the bullpen (3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 200 IP, 175 K)

Bruce Chen/Mendoza/whoever else give them quality work from the 5 spot.

Mike Moustakas hits for an entire season life his first half of 2012 (.280/30/90 RBI/.500 SLG/.820 OPS/125 OPS+)

Billy Butler repeats his 2012 power outbreak (.300/30/100/.500 SLG/.880 OPS/140 OPS+)

Alex Gordon does roughly what he has the past two seasons (.295/18/70/.475 SLG/130 OPS+)

Sal Perez produces his numbers over a whole season (.300/20/80/.475 SLG/.800 OPS/120 OPS+)

Eric Hosmer bounces back (.290/25/100/.475 SLG/.825 OPS)

It also would include the bullpen being just as good as the past two years, Cain staying healthy a full season, Escobar producing at a steady rate, even if his average is less shiny.

That team is going to do better than 80 wins. I wouldn't put a high likelihood on all those things happening, but if they do, this is much more than an 80-win team (last year's squad, which only had 2.5 of the things listed individually above, would have won 80 games just by being 2-3 wins lucky according to Pythag rather than 6-7 games unlucky).
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Old 03-17-2013, 03:20 PM   #1495
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No.
you are nuts. If literally everything fell into place, and everyone performed to potential, not only do we wipe out the Tigers, we might have the best record in baseball.

That obviously wont happen, several things will go wrong to a greater or lesser extent. Hopefully not enough to cost us the 2nd wild card (but more than likely so)
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Old 03-17-2013, 03:26 PM   #1496
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Regarding Hosmer and the WBC, I didn't think his approach looked terrible. In fact, he was carrying a bad luck 0-3 in one of the games I watched (Dom, maybe...), and he had absolutely crushed the ball in two of those ABs.

We'll see...
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Old 03-17-2013, 03:38 PM   #1497
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If everything goes right this Royals team can win 85-88 games. If things go like they do for the Royals, this is a 75 win team.
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Old 03-17-2013, 03:44 PM   #1498
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If everything goes right this Royals team can win 85-88 games. If things go like they do for the Royals, this is a 75 win team.
If everything goes right, the Royals win 90-100 games.
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Old 03-17-2013, 03:54 PM   #1499
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If everything goes right, the Royals win 90-100 games.
I should have included Ned in my thoughts.
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Old 03-17-2013, 04:02 PM   #1500
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Duncan, I respect your opinion, probably more than any others, especially concerning the Royals. Lots of ifs. As a 48 year old man who was at game 7, I pray you are correct. My skepticism runs deep, and I will buy you a beer if we make the playoffs. If win win 81 games, I will as well. Thank you for your analysis. Not trying to bring everyone down. We seem to be the Chicago Cubs South.
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