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Old 03-22-2013, 11:53 PM  
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:40 AM   #16
B14ckmon B14ckmon is offline
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If Geno IS going to succeed in the NFL, can you think of a better location/environment than KC?

-Quality QB coaches
-Friendly system
-Jamaal Charles
-Dwayne Bowe
-A franchise LT (currently)
-Ability to take his time... doesn't have to rush into starting for the team yet

I can not. Tell me this isn't the PERFECT time to take a guy like Geno who has the arm, athleticism, and the will to get it done.

What that means for the expectations is nothing. It's possible it doesn't work out, but I'll be ****ed if we ever get another opportunity like this in the NEXT 30 years to try and make the home-grown QB thing work.
Sounds a lot like Jacksonville tbh.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:41 AM   #17
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I bet it has more to do with the fact that he had three great years in college, a great combine, a great pro day, and appears to be a really great human being as well. Who wouldn't want someone like that to be their franchise QB?
but he may turn out not to be a HOFer.....
Too risky. LT.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:43 AM   #18
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but he may turn out not to be a HOFer.....
Too risky. LT.
Jaguars front office and fan base are equally retarded. Excepted you have Alex Smith. We have dead man walking Gabbert that our staff plans to use to tank the season.
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:06 AM   #19
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I don't know if expectations are too high. I do wonder how patient people would be. Not just the true fans either. I could be wrong... we'll never know because this team will never do it. But you do see some of the comments people make about guys like Locker or Ponder, or even Andy Dalton... and you wonder. Griffin and Luck and Wilson have ruined it for everyone.
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:09 AM   #20
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Geno Smith is the next Vince Young. Needs another year to ride the bench and grow up. But he will not get it.

He will get thrust into starting role by week 5 and if he doesn't have success it will ruin him.
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:14 AM   #21
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Geno Smith is the next Vince Young. Needs another year to ride the bench and grow up. But he will not get it.

He will get thrust into starting role by week 5 and if he doesn't have success it will ruin him.
.

The comparison is beyond asinine.

However, thrown into a hostile environment (poor coaching, poor support system, etc) is a recipe for disaster with most rookies regardless of position. Incidentally, that's why Geno makes a lot of sense at 1.1 to me, even with Alex Smith.

You'd be able to provide him with a solid support system (solid but not elite OL, great running game, solid coaches) and would ensure that he'd either get a year at least to sit or beat out Alex in TC.
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:20 AM   #22
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Expectations? I would imagine that the only people who have expectations, realistic or otherwise, are his detractors. Most of the people in favor of him for the pick understand that although he was a fantastic player for three years and may be far and away the most talented QB in this draft, that's no guarantee for success at the next level. On the flip side most of the people in favor of him also understand that you can't ever draft a franchise quarterback if you don't ever actually attempt to try to draft a franchise quarterback. Most of the people in favor of him understand that we are in a unique position as a team, a position we've never found ourselves in before, where we would have had the opportunity to draft a potential franchise player without any chance at another team's interference.

But the key word there is "potential". Drafting Geno Smith, and the discussion of Geno Smith, has never been about expectations. It's been about potential. What he might be. Which, to bring Alex Smith into the discussion, is the area where the issue with his presence lies (at least for me): Alex Smith is a known quantity. He's a game manager with limited skills in the intermediate and deep passing game, a player who has established by this point that he needs to rely on a strong running game to limit mistakes and a defense to carry him to wins. The kind of quarterback that barely survives low scoring games. He is what he is, and it's pretty unlikely that he's going to become anything more than that at this point.

So the question becomes this: do you want a known quantity with limited upside for a fairly high price? A player who's middle of the pack at best, isn't likely to lead your team anywhere on his own merits, but also isn't likely to make a lot of costly mistakes. Or do you want an unknown quantity with both nearly limitless upside as well as a real risk for failure, at the highest price possible (well, short of trading up to 1)? A player that could be, in time, one of the tops at his position in the league, or...may never be.

In any event, it doesn't really matter; they made their choice.

And I'm admittedly a conspiracy nut, but I believe they made it before they even went through the process of evaluating this draft class. I think Alex Smith was a part of the lengthy day-long discussion Andy Reid had with Clark prior to KC hiring the coach, and I think making a strong move for him was a contingency of the hire. Which, if true, would be a real shame, because that would mean we'd anchored ourselves to him without even considering any other possibilities.

(This is just a personal theory, based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling...)
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:28 AM   #23
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Expectations? I would imagine that the only people who have expectations, realistic or otherwise, are his detractors. Most of the people in favor of him for the pick understand that although he was a fantastic player for three years and may be far and away the most talented QB in this draft, that's no guarantee for success at the next level. On the flip side most of the people in favor of him also understand that you can't ever draft a franchise quarterback if you don't ever actually attempt to try to draft a franchise quarterback. Most of the people in favor of him understand that we are in a unique position as a team, a position we've never found ourselves in before, where we would have had the opportunity to draft a potential franchise player without any chance at another team's interference.

But the key word there is "potential". Drafting Geno Smith, and the discussion of Geno Smith, has never been about expectations. It's been about potential. What he might be. Which, to bring Alex Smith into the discussion, is the area where the issue with his presence lies (at least for me): Alex Smith is a known quantity. He's a game manager with limited skills in the intermediate and deep passing game, a player who has established by this point that he needs to rely on a strong running game to limit mistakes and a defense to carry him to wins. The kind of quarterback that barely survives low scoring games. He is what he is, and it's pretty unlikely that he's going to become anything more than that at this point.

So the question becomes this: do you want a known quantity with limited upside for a fairly high price? A player who's middle of the pack at best, isn't likely to lead your team anywhere on his own merits, but also isn't likely to make a lot of costly mistakes. Or do you want an unknown quantity with both nearly limitless upside as well as a real risk for failure, at the highest price possible (well, short of trading up to 1)? A player that could be, in time, one of the tops at his position in the league, or...may never be.

In any event, it doesn't really matter; they made their choice.

And I'm admittedly a conspiracy nut, but I believe they made it before they even went through the process of evaluating this draft class. I think Alex Smith was a part of the lengthy day-long discussion Andy Reid had with Clark prior to KC hiring the coach, and I think making a strong move for him was a contingency of the hire. Which, if true, would be a real shame, because that would mean we'd anchored ourselves to him without even considering any other possibilities.

(This is just a personal theory, based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling...)
While this can probably and justifiably be chalked up to homerism for Geno, I am starting to think that Andy/Dorsey are trolling and will take Geno.

I'm not really sure why I feel this way other than pure homerism/optimism, but it just seems right to me.
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:33 AM   #24
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If by trolling, you mean trolling for trade offers, then you better hope they don't get one, that they're stuck with the pick and just say **** it and draft him.

I think if he was their guy, we'd already know it. They don't really have anything to gain by blowing smoke if their actual intention is to draft him. It's not like anybody can leapfrog them.

They seem really interested in trading down. Which if it happens means he ain't our pick whether they like him or not.
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:37 AM   #25
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If by trolling, you mean trolling for trade offers, then you better hope they don't get one, that they're stuck with the pick and just say **** it and draft him.

I think if he was their guy, we'd already know it. They don't really have anything to gain by blowing smoke if their actual intention is to draft him. It's not like anybody can leapfrog them.

They seem really interested in trading down. Which if it happens means he ain't our pick whether they like him or not.
True.

After watching nearly all of Barkley's 11 and '12 film, I would love to have him at 1.8 if KC traded down.

It would really sadden me if we refused to draft a QB until the 5th in this draft (Landry Jones).
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:46 AM   #26
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Do people still think we're taking a QB with the first pick?
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:51 AM   #27
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Do people still think we're taking a QB with the first pick?
There is a part of me that thinks that KC will try to have the best QB situation possible going into next year.

IMO, that would mean Alex, Geno, Chase + Stanzi/Tanney as camp fodder.
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:57 AM   #28
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There is a part of me that thinks that KC will try to have the best QB situation possible going into next year.

IMO, that would mean Alex, Geno, Chase + Stanzi/Tanney as camp fodder.
Reid said he'll find our franchise QB but it might not be this year. I could see us taking a QB in the 1st round next year if Alex Game Manager doesn't impress like I think he won't.
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Old 03-23-2013, 02:00 AM   #29
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Reid said he'll find our franchise QB but it might not be this year. I could see us taking a QB in the 1st round next year if Alex Game Manager doesn't impress like I think he won't.
I could understand that. However, KC will likely have to trade up, even if they finish 6-10.

At 1.1, you have the ability to draft the best QB available (who IMO will grade out favorably in comparison to the other coming out next year).
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Old 03-23-2013, 02:08 AM   #30
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I could understand that. However, KC will likely have to trade up, even if they finish 6-10.

At 1.1, you have the ability to draft the best QB available (who IMO will grade out favorably in comparison to the other coming out next year).
I agree I just don't think it's in the plans. I wish though.
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