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Old 03-22-2013, 11:53 PM  
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:36 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Crush View Post
You give the guy at least three years to develop. Brad Johnson is not a franchise QB. McNabb was a franchise QB. A franchise QB is any QB that is able to take the team on his back and lead them to victory.
Brad Johnson has a Super Bowl ring, McNabb doesn't.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:42 AM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
Brad Johnson has a Super Bowl ring, McNabb doesn't.
Doesn't matter
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High Tech is Sorcery and the people who are really powerful are literally telling people to commit crimes using the psychic interspace created by the WWW and Wireless. They are controlling peoples actions like drones . The two things are deeply intertwined. The more man's brain interfaces with machines the creepier it gets. They use brains separate from a human body in a supercomputer and you have The Image of the Beast. The military has been doing this since the 50s
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:46 AM   #63
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And personally I don't care if they take Geno or not. Take the whomever you think is the best QB in this class. If he crashes and burns take another one in a high round until you do get a good one.
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High Tech is Sorcery and the people who are really powerful are literally telling people to commit crimes using the psychic interspace created by the WWW and Wireless. They are controlling peoples actions like drones . The two things are deeply intertwined. The more man's brain interfaces with machines the creepier it gets. They use brains separate from a human body in a supercomputer and you have The Image of the Beast. The military has been doing this since the 50s
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:46 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
Doesn't matter
It doesn't? So you would rather have a "franchise QB" -whatever that is- than a Super Bowl victory?

Once again, tell me, what is a franchise QB?
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:47 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
Brad Johnson has a Super Bowl ring, McNabb doesn't.
That's because Brad Johnson rode the coattails of an historic defense. By your logic, Dan Marino is not a franchise QB.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:49 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
It doesn't? So you would rather have a "franchise QB" -whatever that is- than a Super Bowl victory?

Once again, tell me, what is a franchise QB?
Brad Johnson is the exception, not the norm.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:49 AM   #67
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I don't consider expectations for Geno Smith to be overinflated, but I do think folks are making him seem like he's a no risk player. He isn't. There are parts of his game that are underdeveloped and it is certainly questionable as to whether Geno Smith can handle pressure of the NFL better than pressure of college ball. Can he mature?

I have always maintained he could have good success if paired with a sympathetic offensive minded coach like Gruden or Jim Harbaugh. But I don't consider Andy Reid to coach like Gruden does, he demands his QB play the game his way and the WCO is a complex system for any young man to command.

I still feel this draft is awash from 1 to 15 and Geno Smith isn't really a top fifteen player in a normal draft, but I would grab him because this team needs to start grabbing young QB talent and he does have elite ability, not necessarily saying he is elite overall.

I like his throwing motion a lot. I like the trajectory he has, very high release and the ball points down when he makes short passes, which is great for WCO style and guarding the ball from INT during tips. It also makes it harder to make a play, defensively.

He's got an elite arm, decent accuracy, but I have read where he loses focus and accuracy. We saw this during a few plays when he was up against K State and Baylor.

I'm not sure how I feel about his nerve, though it seems he does stand in during blitz and pass rushing that gets in on him.

Those are the areas of concern for me.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:54 AM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
It doesn't? So you would rather have a "franchise QB" -whatever that is- than a Super Bowl victory?

Once again, tell me, what is a franchise QB?
Once again, a franchise QB is a QB that takes the team on his back and wills them to victory.

Examples: Montana, Elway, Graham, Staubach, Marino, Bradshaw, Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Manning II, and Flacco.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:00 AM   #69
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Originally Posted by Crush View Post
That's because Brad Johnson rode the coattails of an historic defense. By your logic, Dan Marino is not a franchise QB.
It isn't my logic. I'm trying to understand what people mean when they say "franchise QB."

There are a lot of "franchise QBs" that have never won a SB:

Dan Marino
Archie Manning
Fran Tarkenton
Dan Fouts
Sonny Jurgensen
Kenny Anderson
Donovan McNabb
Roman Gabriel
Jim Kelly
Boomer Esiason
Steve McNair
Bert Jones
Phillip Rivers
Ron Jaworski
Daunte Culpepper
Joe Ferguson
Steve Grogan
Ton Romo
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:00 AM   #70
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I bet it has more to do with the fact that he had three great years in college, a great combine, a great pro day, and appears to be a really great human being as well. Who wouldn't want someone like that to be their franchise QB?
By reading all your posts for months I would say you
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:03 AM   #71
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This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.

If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:04 AM   #72
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Great post, Keg.

And there's no "conspiracy theory" about it - there a quote floating around from Reid that said he had his eye on Alex Smith before he ever took the job.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:10 AM   #73
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Holy ****ing shit, I'm sick hearing about Geno Smith.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:10 AM   #74
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For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.
They have to be idiots, then. Actual, confirmed idiots. Like, "makes a strong argument for eugenics" type idiots.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:12 AM   #75
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