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Old 03-22-2013, 11:53 PM  
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:13 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
It isn't my logic. I'm trying to understand what people mean when they say "franchise QB."
The Donks just scored and it is 23-19 with 2:36 left in the game. Do you trust that your QB is capable of carrying the team on his back and orchestrate the epic last second TD drive? If yes, you have a franchise QB. If no, you need to keep looking until you find one.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:20 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Crush View Post
Once again, a franchise QB is a QB that takes the team on his back and wills them to victory.

Examples: Montana, Elway, Graham, Staubach, Marino, Bradshaw, Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Manning II, and Flacco.
That is gobbledygook. It means nothing. It has no more meaning than saying someone is a "franchise quarterback.

Listing examples, on the other hand, gives us a frame of reference. We can look at their Career Approximate Value (CAV) based on statistics stripping out emotion.

Montana: 123
Elway: 138
Graham: 84
Staubach: 104
Marino: 145
Bradshaw: 106
P. Manning: 165
E. Manning: 86
Brady: 140
Roethlisberger: 86
Flacco: 55

OK, here are a couple of interesting facts about what you consider a "franchise QB": 1) with a couple of exceptions (Flacco and Roethlisberger) a franchise QB is either a current hall of famer or a future hall of famer, 2) with one exception (Flacco) all the QBs you've listed have a higher CAV than what you can typically expect with the number one overall pick (74).

You've supported the very point I was making in the OP. Thank you.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:27 AM   #78
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He's got an elite arm, decent accuracy, but I have read where he loses focus and accuracy. We saw this during a few plays when he was up against K State and Baylor.
Yeah that game where he went 45-51 656 yards 8TDs and 0 INTS was rough...
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:28 AM   #79
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So Brad Johnson is basicly the "mean" of 1st round QBs. So if Brad Johnsons skill set is the average the real question would be where does Genos skill set fall in the bell curve. I do think Brad Johnson is a very average QB. He was merely in the right place at the right time to get his SB ring. Awesome D along with Gruden vs Raiders/Gannon.
Time will tell us all where Geno belongs and whether taking him or passing was the correct decision.
The biggest thing for the fans IMO is: If not now, when?
This draft has the feel of '08 when it was Matt Ryan or Jake Long.
No I don't really want "Matt Ryan" as my QB. He is not a franchise QB IMO. He cannot put a team on his back and win.
So if Reid and Dorsey view Geno as "Matt Ryan" I hope we do pass on him because we would be stuck with a good QB that can't win you a SB.
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Alex Smith is really talented. BIG arm, very mobile.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:31 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
That is gobbledygook. It means nothing. It has no more meaning than saying someone is a "franchise quarterback
Do you even watch football?

What do you call this?



And this?



And this?



And this?



And this?



And this?



And this?

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Old 03-23-2013, 10:34 AM   #81
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Could Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, or Tyler Bray could be a franchise QB? We don't know. They could be and the potential reward is worth the risk.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:34 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.

If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.
The article doesn't treat Geno as a plain-vanilla generic player. The article looks at #1 overall picks. Period. Geno isn't part of the equation in terms of the article. Geno is only part of the equation in this discussion because we have been talking about taking Geno with that first pick and talking as though it is a franchise saving move. Crush is proof positive of this when he gives examples of "franchise quarterbacks."

We aren't talking about first round talent; we are talking about the first pick. Typically, you aren't going to get a player that Crush describes, you are going to get a Brad Johnson type of player. A player that everyone says isn't a franchise QB.

This is simply a matter of stripping out the emotion.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:37 AM   #83
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after i saw him go to shit in the KState game .. i lost my trust in him .. what could he do in the NFL with those defenses .. nothing .....
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:43 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Crush View Post
Do you even watch football?

What do you call this?




courtesy of GC
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:44 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by Chief Roundup View Post
So Brad Johnson is basicly the "mean" of 1st round QBs. So if Brad Johnsons skill set is the average the real question would be where does Genos skill set fall in the bell curve. I do think Brad Johnson is a very average QB. He was merely in the right place at the right time to get his SB ring. Awesome D along with Gruden vs Raiders/Gannon.
Time will tell us all where Geno belongs and whether taking him or passing was the correct decision.
The biggest thing for the fans IMO is: If not now, when?
This draft has the feel of '08 when it was Matt Ryan or Jake Long.
No I don't really want "Matt Ryan" as my QB. He is not a franchise QB IMO. He cannot put a team on his back and win.
So if Reid and Dorsey view Geno as "Matt Ryan" I hope we do pass on him because we would be stuck with a good QB that can't win you a SB.
No. Brad Johnson is the mean of the #1 overall pick. In other words, you can expect the #1 overall pick in the draft to have a career comparable to Brad Johnson.

That isn't necessarily bad. Johnson had a couple of pro-bowls and a Super Bowl ring.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:46 AM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:49 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
People seem to have not read the article (not saying you haven't), but we are talking about the #1 overall pick, not a top 10 QB pick.
It doesn't matter if it's no 1 or no 71 if you make the right pick you're a genius.

Missing on a QB in the top 10 is not an unforgivable sin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
The article states, and I hate to temper anyone's enthusiasm (or blind ballwashing devotion), that if you use the #1 overall pick on a QB you can expect to draft, on average, Brad Johnson. All the emotion of the pick is stripped out. Based on statistics, and statistics alone, you are drafting someone with a Career Approximate Value of Brad Johnson. (The article also states that a couple of other players with the same CAV would include Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon.)
Alex proves that average out.

THat said it's only true because most are huge booms or huge busts.

All drafts have Manning's and Leaf's.

The entire point is to have a GM and scouting dept. able to tell which is which. The point is to have people that can identify the possibles and the probables.

If you don't not only will that pick bust but most that follow will as well...
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:50 AM   #88
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:52 AM   #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crush View Post
Do you even watch football?

What do you call this?



And this?



And this?



And this?



And this?



And this?



And this?

By your definition, based upon those videos, we have traded for a "franchise QB."

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Old 03-23-2013, 10:58 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
It doesn't matter if it's no 1 or no 71 if you make the right pick you're a genius.

Missing on a QB in the top 10 is not an unforgivable sin.



Alex proves that average out.

THat said it's only true because most are huge booms or huge busts.

All drafts have Manning's and Leaf's.

The entire point is to have a GM and scouting dept. able to tell which is which. The point is to have people that can identify the possibles and the probables.

If you don't not only will that pick bust but most that follow will as well...

No, they don't. That is the whole point.
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