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Old 03-22-2013, 11:53 PM  
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:58 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by keg in kc View Post
Expectations? I would imagine that the only people who have expectations, realistic or otherwise, are his detractors. Most of the people in favor of him for the pick understand that although he was a fantastic player for three years and may be far and away the most talented QB in this draft, that's no guarantee for success at the next level. On the flip side most of the people in favor of him also understand that you can't ever draft a franchise quarterback if you don't ever actually attempt to try to draft a franchise quarterback. Most of the people in favor of him understand that we are in a unique position as a team, a position we've never found ourselves in before, where we would have had the opportunity to draft a potential franchise player without any chance at another team's interference.

But the key word there is "potential". Drafting Geno Smith, and the discussion of Geno Smith, has never been about expectations. It's been about potential. What he might be. Which, to bring Alex Smith into the discussion, is the area where the issue with his presence lies (at least for me): Alex Smith is a known quantity. He's a game manager with limited skills in the intermediate and deep passing game, a player who has established by this point that he needs to rely on a strong running game to limit mistakes and a defense to carry him to wins. The kind of quarterback that barely survives low scoring games. He is what he is, and it's pretty unlikely that he's going to become anything more than that at this point.

So the question becomes this: do you want a known quantity with limited upside for a fairly high price? A player who's middle of the pack at best, isn't likely to lead your team anywhere on his own merits, but also isn't likely to make a lot of costly mistakes. Or do you want an unknown quantity with both nearly limitless upside as well as a real risk for failure, at the highest price possible (well, short of trading up to 1)? A player that could be, in time, one of the tops at his position in the league, or...may never be.

In any event, it doesn't really matter; they made their choice.

And I'm admittedly a conspiracy nut, but I believe they made it before they even went through the process of evaluating this draft class. I think Alex Smith was a part of the lengthy day-long discussion Andy Reid had with Clark prior to KC hiring the coach, and I think making a strong move for him was a contingency of the hire. Which, if true, would be a real shame, because that would mean we'd anchored ourselves to him without even considering any other possibilities.

(This is just a personal theory, based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling...)
Based on the Man love Reid has shown for Smith, your theory may be spot on.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:01 PM   #107
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If we really wanted Geno Smith, than we would have just taken him 1st overall instead of trading for Alex Smith.
Based on Dorsey's philosophy we still may...
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:06 PM   #108
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Why not? Other than ILB its the weakest position on the team.
That's your opinion. Not necessarily this coaches or GM's.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:08 PM   #109
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Based on Dorsey's philosophy we still may...
If that happens I will leave forever
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:09 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
Based on Dorsey's philosophy we still may...
I have a hard time believing that we're gonna take a QB 1st overall to be the 3rd QB on the depth chart this year.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:09 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by Alex Smith 4Ever View Post
7 of the 9 teams drafting behind us desperately need a QB. If Geno was a great prospect, why isn't anyone trying to trade up?
Because a lot of these teams got ****ed by the owners and received no compensation picks.

And if you were including the Jaguars, we are currently being crippled by some run of the mill missouri pillowbitergot named Blaine.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:09 PM   #112
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You just described Ricky Stanzi.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:12 PM   #113
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Because a lot of these teams got ****ed by the owners and received no compensation picks.

And if you were including the Jaguars, we are currently being crippled by some run of the mill missouri pillowbitergot named Blaine.
The Redskins got screwed by the owners on their cap space and they had no problem trading two firsts and a second to move up
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:18 PM   #114
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It doesn't matter if it's no 1 or no 71 if you make the right pick you're a genius.

Missing on a QB in the top 10 is not an unforgivable sin.



Alex proves that average out.

THat said it's only true because most are huge booms or huge busts.

All drafts have Manning's and Leaf's.

The entire point is to have a GM and scouting dept. able to tell which is which. The point is to have people that can identify the possibles and the probables.

If you don't not only will that pick bust but most that follow will as well...
Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:20 PM   #115
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The Redskins got screwed by the owners on their cap space and they had no problem trading two firsts and a second to move up
...Because they have two first and a second to blow.

The Jaguars for example, just spent the 2011 draft giving up picks to trade up for the shitty missouri kid, and then we spent picks again last year trading up for blaine. We have like 25 people on the roster right now.

The Eagles easily have the best QB situation out of any of them.

The Raiders are paying Palmer a ton and I liked what I saw from Pryor in his start.

The Browns just took TWO QBs early.

Bruce Arians is making up some shit about no "Wow" qbs so he has an excuse to stick with his secret lover Drew Stanton.

Bills are short on picks and their HC wants his buddy Ryan back.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:21 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Alex Smith 4Ever View Post
7 of the 9 teams drafting behind us desperately need a QB. If Geno was a great prospect, why isn't anyone trying to trade up?
Well one, we don't know they aren't and two usually these negotiations aren't done till the last minute.

Last year with the Redskins and Rams how early that got done was very unusual.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:22 PM   #117
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Based on Dorsey's philosophy we still may...
Maybe, But I think Clark told him we gotta win NOW. So Andy said how many picks can I trade to get my boy Alex?
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:33 PM   #118
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:52 PM   #119
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Maybe, But I think Clark told him we gotta win NOW.
I have no inside info but my uneducated guess would be that's not what he thinks...
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:53 PM   #120
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Expectations? I would imagine that the only people who have expectations, realistic or otherwise, are his detractors. Most of the people in favor of him for the pick understand that although he was a fantastic player for three years and may be far and away the most talented QB in this draft, that's no guarantee for success at the next level. On the flip side most of the people in favor of him also understand that you can't ever draft a franchise quarterback if you don't ever actually attempt to try to draft a franchise quarterback. Most of the people in favor of him understand that we are in a unique position as a team, a position we've never found ourselves in before, where we would have had the opportunity to draft a potential franchise player without any chance at another team's interference.

But the key word there is "potential". Drafting Geno Smith, and the discussion of Geno Smith, has never been about expectations. It's been about potential. What he might be. Which, to bring Alex Smith into the discussion, is the area where the issue with his presence lies (at least for me): Alex Smith is a known quantity. He's a game manager with limited skills in the intermediate and deep passing game, a player who has established by this point that he needs to rely on a strong running game to limit mistakes and a defense to carry him to wins. The kind of quarterback that barely survives low scoring games. He is what he is, and it's pretty unlikely that he's going to become anything more than that at this point.

So the question becomes this: do you want a known quantity with limited upside for a fairly high price? A player who's middle of the pack at best, isn't likely to lead your team anywhere on his own merits, but also isn't likely to make a lot of costly mistakes. Or do you want an unknown quantity with both nearly limitless upside as well as a real risk for failure, at the highest price possible (well, short of trading up to 1)? A player that could be, in time, one of the tops at his position in the league, or...may never be.


(This is just a personal theory, based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling...)
This sums up my view when I look at things objectively.
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