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Old 03-23-2013, 04:29 PM  
keg in kc keg in kc is offline
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Expectations and Alex Smith

Just curious. Inspired by the ongoing thread about "Geno fan" expectations, and I'm curious what the thinking is on the other side of the fence. What do people expect out of Alex Smith over the next, let's say, 2-5 years? Specifics, even, yardage and TDs, wins and losses, offensive rankings, etc. This is not a thread with an agenda, I'm genuinely curious what people think, so let's try to keep this from turning into snipe thread #368.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:48 PM   #16
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Rex Grossman?
Ricky Stanzi?
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:50 PM   #17
Mr. Laz Mr. Laz is offline
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Ricky Stanzi?
Stanzi hasn't even been able to make the field ... Trent Dilfer?
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:52 PM   #18
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Stanzi hasn't even been able to make the field ... Trent Dilfer?
Alex Tanney?
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:53 PM   #19
keg in kc keg in kc is offline
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Just to give mine, I expect that in 2013 Alex will play 14-15 games, complete around 64% of his passes for a bit over 3,000 yards, throw maybe 17-18 TDs against 9-10 INTs. I expect that we'll start the year trying to be pass-happy with Alex and it won't work (hence the 9-10 picks). I expect a trajectory much like when we "discovered" Priest Holmes in 2001 and began to run the offense through him as the season progressed (although I do think Trent Green was a better QB than Alex will be). Things will settle down and I expect that Jamaal Charles will have a career best in total yardage, and the Chiefs will be top 10 in rushing, while bottom 10 in passing. I expect Dwayne Bowe to be underutilized, with most of the focus on short passing to backs and slot receivers, although he'll still manage his requisite 800-1000 yards despite that. I think Donnie Avery may have a second consecutive career year, again pushing 800 yards. I expect that we'll all see Reid try to incorporate McCluster into the offense, and it still won't work. End result is 7-8 wins, with a lot of losses under 7 points (the defense is going to be pretty good), so close but not quite there for a wild card. I expect Alex Smith to get his extension after this season (if he doesn't get it before that).

Then in 2014 I expect Alex Smith to have what will be, for him, a career year. 65% passing for 3500 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT. Jamaal Charles (or a backup, he may be run into the ground by season's end) will post another career year. The passing offense's rank will rise into middle-of-the-league, while the rushing offense will remain top-5. The defense will be a bit better, giving us some victories in close games we lost in 2013. The team will win 9-10 games and make the playoffs, where they'll lose a low scoring wild card game to a team they should beat (or may have beaten during the season).

'15-'17 will be more of the same, falling somewhere between 7-9 and 11-5 every year, 3000-3500 yards annually for Alex, probably not much more than 20 TDs in any season. We'll be back to full martyball, basically, with everything centering around defense and running game, although that's obviously counter to Andy Reid's career trends. I think it's possible we win a playoff game or two. I don't think we'll be a super bowl contender, although there have been fluky wins by teams in the past, so anything's possible.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:56 PM   #20
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75 percent chance we see Keg's scenario.

25 percent chance Alex Smith is worse than Cassel and we LOL so hard.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:57 PM   #21
theelusiveeightrop theelusiveeightrop is offline
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The Jags are closer to a playoff berth with Gabbert than we are with A Smith.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:57 PM   #22
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His replacement to phase him out quickly. Will be on the roster before the end of his second season here. That should say enough, I think.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:57 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Go to Hell View Post
75 percent chance we see Keg's scenario.
I was trying to be as optimistic as possible.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:59 PM   #24
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I'll take a risk here, and I will be called a "true fan," but I think, depending on the draft and barring injury, we will be:

11-5

Alex has:

65% completion
3500 yards passing
20 TDs
7 Ints

I think Charles will be a big benefactor from the switch to Reid's offense and will have over 2,000 all purpose yards.

I also think with Alex's efficiency (some would say game management) our defense will be vaulted into the top 15 in the league, perhaps top 10.

I believe we will win at least one playoff game.

If Smith is injured, then all bets are off....




Edit: I didn't see Keg's post/prediction when I made this one....
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:59 PM   #25
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I expect a Cassel-esque performance of garbage QB play that will occasionally spike upwards to "pretty good" once Smith ends up on the hotseat.

Those spikes will save his job for about three years.

Eventually, Andy Reid will be sacked, we will have this conversation in four years about how it was damn time given his unwavering support for Smith.

He will then be replaced by somebody like John Harbaugh, who will immediately trade for the best backup in the NFL and sign him to a four year extension. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low by year 4.

Four years later, Harbaugh will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave the backup QB he traded for any competition.

At that point, Peyton Manning should be flaming out of his first head coaching job. We'll probably hire him up. Mannig will immediately trade for the NFL's best backup QB that year and sign him to a 4-year extension. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low by year 4.

Four years later, Manning will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave the backup QB he traded for any competition.

He will then be replaced by Dda;lkfj;alkdfalkdjf Wjepofrajf2jojafl who will immediately will trade for the NFL's best backup QB. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low in year 4.

Four years later, Dda;lkfj;alkdfalkdjf Wjepofrajf2jojafl will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave our QB any real competition.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:02 PM   #26
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He is 29 and we basically gave up a first round pick for him and we are paying him 10 million dollars in 2013.

He needs to hit the ground running and play at a high level right away.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:03 PM   #27
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not much




This


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Old 03-23-2013, 05:04 PM   #28
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Yay, we traded 2.34 and a second next year for a "known commodity," Otherwise known as a mediocre game manager of a QB.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:06 PM   #29
PRIEST PRIEST is offline
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I expect a Cassel-esque performance of garbage QB play that will occasionally spike upwards to "pretty good" once Smith ends up on the hotseat.

Those spikes will save his job for about three years.

Eventually, Andy Reid will be sacked, we will have this conversation in four years about how it was damn time given his unwavering support for Smith.

He will then be replaced by somebody like John Harbaugh, who will immediately trade for the best backup in the NFL and sign him to a four year extension. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low by year 4.

Four years later, Harbaugh will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave the backup QB he traded for any competition.

At that point, Peyton Manning should be flaming out of his first head coaching job. We'll probably hire him up. Mannig will immediately trade for the NFL's best backup QB that year and sign him to a 4-year extension. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low by year 4.

Four years later, Manning will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave the backup QB he traded for any competition.

He will then be replaced by Dda;lkfj;alkdfalkdjf Wjepofrajf2jojafl who will immediately will trade for the NFL's best backup QB. Season ticket sales will skyrocket in year 1 before hitting a new low in year 4.

Four years later, Dda;lkfj;alkdfalkdjf Wjepofrajf2jojafl will be axed and we'll all wonder why he never gave our QB any real competition.




Damn sad but true.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:06 PM   #30
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I think if you reversed the situation, Cassel was in San Francisco with Harbaugh and Alex Smith was in KC with Haley, the outcomes would have been almost exactly reversed as well.

Cassel would of looked better only to be replaced and Smith would of been destroyed.

Last edited by Mr. Laz; 03-23-2013 at 05:12 PM..
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