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Old 03-22-2013, 11:53 PM  
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:45 PM   #151
NorthernWV NorthernWV is offline
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after i saw him go to shit in the KState game .. i lost my trust in him .. what could he do in the NFL with those defenses .. nothing .....
He threw for 500+ yards against LSU with Claiborne, Matthieu, Reid, Mingo, etc...he didn't only torch bad defenses, he did it to good ones too
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:00 PM   #152
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:01 PM   #153
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He threw for 500+ yards against LSU with Claiborne, Matthieu, Reid, Mingo, etc...he didn't only torch bad defenses, he did it to good ones too
I like Geno but I don't get why people bring up that game.

His ypa was awful in that game. He threw the ball like 60 times and probably should have throw 5 interceptions but 3 were dropped.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:15 PM   #154
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If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.


Therein lies the key. I'm not expecting it, but I'm hopeful that Dorsey and Reid know more about football than I do, and have made a shrewd move here.

As far as Geno, I'd still like to draft him at 1-1 regardless. Can you friggin' IMAGINE this joint--without a serious beef to whine-and-bitch-and-snivel about??!!! Otherwise, re-acquiring a second and settling for a 2nd-3rd round QB developmental project could be okay too--though, clearly, much less orgasmic.

For now, given the off-season moves and the Pro-bowlers on this squad, I seriously cannot imagine NOT winning at least 8 or 9 games; on the other hand, that's clearly not even close to good enough...unless they do draft Geno too. In that case, the FO and Coaching staff would have earned another year to guage exactly where we "are" by the end of next year.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:18 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
I like Geno but I don't get why people bring up that game.

His ypa was awful in that game. He threw the ball like 60 times and probably should have throw 5 interceptions but 3 were dropped.
No. And One of those INTs wasn't even his fault. It was Austin's.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:29 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
As far as Geno, I'd still like to draft him at 1-1 regardless.
What I'd love (and this is IMPOSSIBLE) would be to trade down and draft him later.

I'm not suggesting they try this (it would be monumentally risky if he's their guy, and stupid to boot).

I'm not suggesting it's even remotely possible (IT'S NOT).

But it would be the perfect way to shut up those of us who want Geno on one hand and those of us who don't think he's worth 1:1 on the other.
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Old 03-23-2013, 06:07 PM   #157
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It would make the Geno detractors unbearable keg
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Old 03-23-2013, 07:45 PM   #158
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:16 PM   #159
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Here's your difference: Alex Smith will throw for more yards than Geno, of that I have no doubt. Geno's efforts however, will be must-have, game-changing, mind-blowing, face-raping clutch throws that win games. Hope that clears it up for you.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:41 PM   #160
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I love Geno and I hope we draft him.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:54 PM   #161
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Watching Geno lead an offense is pure joy and excitement. Watching Alex Smith stumble down the stairs is...well...yeah.
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Old 03-24-2013, 01:43 AM   #162
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Geno Sanchez...

....hasn't even played a down, slapdicks.
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Old 03-24-2013, 07:19 AM   #163
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Is Alex Smith a franchise QB?

I have no expectations for Geno Smith. I do have expectations for what Geno Smith can do for this franchise. We would finally put 30 years of signing somebody else's retread to be our QB. I wouldn't care if after three years we had to rinse and repeat. IMO Reid and Dorsey are afraid that if that happens they won't be there to make the next selection. The move to get Alex Smith was nothing more than a play it safe/job security action.
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Old 03-24-2013, 07:20 AM   #164
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I don't have any expectations for a guy who is not going to be in a Chiefs uniform

now if the Chiefs draft him.yes
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Old 03-24-2013, 09:07 AM   #165
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This has been touched, but directly addressed.

There's a difference between expectation and hope.
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