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Old 03-28-2013, 03:36 PM  
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Pete Prisco on Geno Smith

Geno Smith has potential but not the overall game to be a top-10 pick
March 28, 2013 11:32 AM ET

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At the league meetings earlier this month, I asked two general managers I respect greatly to assess the quarterback class in this year's draft, and both had similar responses.

They don't like it.

"Are we trying to like these guys more than we should?" one of the general managers said. "I don't love any of them."

Not even Geno Smith?
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"No, not even him," he said. "I want the guy at the top to jump out at me on tape, the wow plays, the big throws, the kind of guy you know will be your guy for the next 10 years. I don't see that from him. Can he be good? I am not sure he can. Can he be special? Doubt it. And if you are taking that guy at the top, you want special."

I watched a lot of Smith on Saturdays during the college season. He looked impressive. He had a good arm, made a lot of nice throws and led a high-flying offense at West Virginia.

So as I dove into his tape this week, I did so with an open mind. Were these general managers being too harsh? Was all the talk that Geno Smith should be a top-5 pick accurate?

After studying him closely, I will say this: There is a lot to like, but if I were the GM making the pick Smith wouldn't be my choice in the top 10 or even the top 20.

There are too many flaws.

In fairness to Smith, he played behind a horrible offensive line at West Virginia last year. He was pressured on a regular basis. But the flip side is he played with two outstanding receivers in Tavon Austin, a likely first-round pick, and Steadman Bailey, a likely second-round pick.

In the games I studied, Smith made some impressive throws. He also did some nice things when he moved away from pressure. He moved and reloaded without running. I like that.

But I wanted to like him a lot more than I did. I am a quarterback guy. This league is all about them now. They are 70 percent of the game.

I just didn't get that from Smith. I didn't see a future star. Maybe work can change that. But only time will tell. Here is breakdown of what I saw after studying Smith in several categories.
Arm Strength

When I watched him on television, I thought Smith had a big, powerful arm. After studying his tape, I will say his arm is just OK. He can make all the throws, but there are too many plays where he doesn't seem to have the zip you want from a big-time passer.

That doesn't mean his arm isn't NFL good enough. It certainly is that. But it would have to rank in the middle of the league's passers in terms of arm strength right now. Good, not great.

There were several plays where it appeared he tried to use just his arm, rather than stepping into throws. That's when the ball fell short or skipped to a receiver. I saw him do that on several deep outs.

He also seemed to try and finesse the deep balls, rather than sticking them with a nice throw. Sometimes, he got away with it because of the speed of the college defensive backs. But that won't work in the NFL. He has to be stronger with those throws and drive the football.

He threw a touchdown pass to Bailey against Texas Tech, and even that looked to be a little more of a touch pass than it should have been.

He did make a nice strong throw inside against Oklahoma State to Ryan Nehlen for a touchdown, showing off his arm as he fit it between two defenders. So he can do it. I think some of the problems are from his mechanics, when he just tries to use his arm.
Toughness

This is one area that impressed me. He took a beating at times, but kept getting up and making plays. It's tough to play quarterback behind a line as bad as he had. The pressure was relentless at times.

What I really liked was when I watched him scramble. Smith kept his head up and made plays when he scrambled. This wasn't a quarterback who just tucked it and ran. There were times, however, when he felt what I call "phantom" pressure. There wasn't anyone around him, but he felt it and moved out of the pocket.

That could be because of the poor line up front and the many shots he took. But that's not a good thing. You have to stay on the spot as long as you can if there isn't anybody flushing you out.

But this isn't an area of concern for the most part. He keeps his eyes down the field when the pressure is coming at him. And he can move and reset to throw without taking off to run. That's a plus.
Ability to see the field

Smith does move his head from side-to-side when he is reading the field. I like that. For a young player, he did a solid job at times coming off receivers. But there were other times where I wanted more.

There seemed to be times where he just wouldn't pull the trigger on an open receiver, and came off to a safer throw. That would scare me moving forward. You have to take the chances when they are there.

One such play came against Oklahoma State. On that play, he play-faked to a back out of the shotgun, then faked a reverse to Austin from left to right and set up to throw. He had Bailey wide open in the middle in front of the safeties and behind the linebacker who took a false step on the reverse fake. But he didn't throw it.

He also had J.D. Woods deep on the right sideline wide open, but never threw it. He instead waited for Austin to get into the right flat and he threw it to him for a short gain. That was a safe decision. That isn't what top-level quarterbacks do.

Another time against Iowa State, he had Austin wide open on a cross and held it too long. Eventually, Austin crossed the field and Smith tried to hit him with a soft throw that was easily batted away.
Mechanics

This was a trouble spot for me. His footwork needs a lot of work. He just seemed to use his arm for too many throws. That's a problem. A good quarterback has to step into his throws. That's where the velocity comes from most of the time. Too many times Smith didn't use his legs the right way. And his passes floated.

Most of these bad throws came on intermediate or deep passes. He did a nice job of setting and firing on the short passes. That isn't to say he won't drive it some of the time, but I saw some bad habits.

Against Iowa State, he had Bailey on a deep post for what should have been an easy score. But he tried to touch pass the ball with his arm and it floated. Bailey made a nice adjustment to make the catch for a big gain, but that should have been a touchdown.

Smith has worked to improve his footwork, and scouts at his Pro Day said it was noticeably better. But what happens in the heat of the battle? Does he go back to being more of an arm thrower?
Accuracy

This was a problem at times. Some of it, like I said above, is due to the poor mechanics. But some of it was waiting to throw to open windows all the time. The anticipation wasn't there. You have to feel receivers coming open. At times, Smith seemed to wait and wait and wait and wait.

This is a danger area for NFL quarterbacks. Windows are small and they open and shut quickly. He has to be better at anticipating them coming open, not waiting for them to do so. Some scouts wonder if he can improve that.

At other times, Smith would come off his primary receiver and throw to the other side and skip a pass because he didn't use his body the right way.

There were too many times where I expected passes on the receiver's hands, but they were a little off the target, and the receiver was forced to make a tough catch.
Summary

Smith is a case of a guy being forced up the draft boards. I would take him in the second round. He is in need of some refining. I hear he's a great kid who loves to put in the work, which could make the transition a lot easier. But as far as a top-10 pick, I wouldn't do it. There are simply too many flaws in terms of what I want from my quarterback on the next level. There is growth potential with this kid, but that's not what you want when you draft a kid high in the first round. I just wanted to see more.



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/2...e-a-top10-pick
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:22 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Yeah...I went ahead and read it.

I agree with his analysis, I just disagree with his conclusion. You're right - he says the same things I said about Geno 4 months ago; his lower half is just not that good and he falls in love with touch passes on throws he needs to fire in there (in all honesty, I'm not convinced he watched the tape - I think he just cribbed my posts).

All that said - why does that preclude him from being a high pick?

He has a flaw in his leg drive that he needs to work on. And for the record, it looked better during the combine and pro days, so I believe Weinke has helped in that regard.

I feel like Prisco's fallen into the "Luck" trap, just like so many others before him. If a QB isn't a perfect, polished prospect, then he's not worth taking high because "He's not Andrew Luck".

That's just not a fair bar.

Nothing he says from an analysis standpoint is unfair, but his application of the analysis is just wrong-headed.
This is exactly how I felt. The greatest fallacy is the whole "not worth a top ten pick" nonsense. So, he's worth 11 but not 10? Why the arbitrary cutoff? What makes 11 so different from 9? The extra digit? Why not "not worth a top 13 pick but 14 is okay"? Or top 37 but not 38?
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:37 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by saphojunkie View Post
This is exactly how I felt. The greatest fallacy is the whole "not worth a top ten pick" nonsense. So, he's worth 11 but not 10? Why the arbitrary cutoff? What makes 11 so different from 9? The extra digit? Why not "not worth a top 13 pick but 14 is okay"? Or top 37 but not 38?
It's probably for the incredibly simple reason that he doesn't have him ranked as a top ten player, your potential disagreement notwithstanding.
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:41 PM   #48
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It's hard for me to take a guy seriously who projected Jevan Snead as the best QB in the 2010 draft.
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:51 PM   #49
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It's hard for me to take a guy seriously who projected Jevan Snead as the best QB in the 2010 draft.
I like Prisco. I read all of his columns and most of his tweets. He's insightful and brutally honest, especially when it comes to older players, running backs, etc.

No one can be correct all the time and IMO, he's a good voice in a sea of ass kissers.
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:51 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saphojunkie View Post
This is exactly how I felt. The greatest fallacy is the whole "not worth a top ten pick" nonsense. So, he's worth 11 but not 10? Why the arbitrary cutoff? What makes 11 so different from 9? The extra digit? Why not "not worth a top 13 pick but 14 is okay"? Or top 37 but not 38?
Prisco didn't say he was worth 11 but not 10. You can carry this line of thinking to absurdity and conclude that every player draft able is worth the 1.1. At some point, I trust, even you would distinguish between a pick worthy of 1.1 and one only worthy of a lesser pick. So where is your cut-off?
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:02 PM   #51
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So you have two awesome recievers but a crappy line? How is that Geno's fault?
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:03 PM   #52
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Needed to complete 80 percent of his throws to be considered a top prospect.
Complaining about Alex Smith throwing short safe passes and then hiding from the fact that Geno Smith does the same ****ing thing makes you look like a huge asshole.
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:03 PM   #53
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"Smith does move his head from side-to-side when he is reading the field. I like that. For a young player, he did a solid job at times coming off receivers. But there were other times where I wanted more"

ya, but this I like about Geno. He's a gamer.
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:06 PM   #54
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I like Prisco. I read all of his columns and most of his tweets. He's insightful and brutally honest, especially when it comes to older players, running backs, etc.

No one can be correct all the time and IMO, he's a good voice in a sea of ass kissers.
You know I'm a baby ocelot, so I'm not lying when I said I had never heard of Prisco until this year.

Meh. Seems like an educated beat writer, not someone who understands football.

The Cosell article I agreed with for the most part. This article just made me feel like I was reading an article from a journalist who doesn't really understand/know football but has enough knowledge to seem like an expert to the average/casual fan. He doesn't say what or how many games he studied and he also has gems like this: "Smith does move his head from side-to-side when he is reading the field. I like that. For a young player, he did a solid job at times coming off receivers. But there were other times where I wanted more." He then cites 3 plays. 3. Out of 3 full years of play.
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:28 PM   #55
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Geno has as many tools for the position as I've seen out of anyone not named Luck over the past decade.

The criticisms that Prisco states are oddly similar to Aaron Rogers when he came out of college with the exception that Geno tries to put too much touch on the ball versus zip where Rogers tried to put too much zip on the ball versus touch.

However, the tools are there. It's not like a guy like Barkley who will never have the arm, or a guy like Glennon, who will never have the accuracy. Geno has both the arm and the accuracy and has exhibited the capability to do both in a game time situation.

The thing that Prisco mentions that is ultimately true was that WVU's offensive line was an absolute sieve. And that the Mountaineer defense was 117th out of 124th. Geno was throwing under pressure all game long, nearly every single game and he still passes for 71.2% completion and 42 TD's vs. 6 Ints. That's freaking ridiculous. His performances in the Marshall, James Madison, Baylor and Kansas games were things most QB's can't even do in practice against air.

A year or two under Reid's tuteledge and you'll see what an All-Pro QB is supposed to look like.
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:33 PM   #56
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People should go back and read McNabbs scouting reports coming out. Tons of question marks....mainly because he was an option running QB. Andy Reid put a ton of work into him and made him get better. He always had accuracy flaws, but he got better.

Point is, if Reid was willing to do it once.....is he willing to try it again?
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:33 PM   #57
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But as far as a top-10 pick, I wouldn't do it. There are simply too many flaws in terms of what I want from my quarterback on the next level. There is growth potential with this kid, but that's not what you want when you draft a kid high in the first round. I just wanted to see more.


I'd seriously like to know who in this draft has done more at their respective positions than Geno has done at his.

Who are these mythical Top-10 guys that Geno doesn't fall into/can't beat out that have shown more potential at the next level for their position than Geno?

Werner? Jones? Lotulelei? Joeckel? Fisher? Jordan?

Sorry, but I don't see it.
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:35 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saccopoo View Post
Geno has as many tools for the position as I've seen out of anyone not named Luck over the past decade.

The criticisms that Prisco states are oddly similar to Aaron Rogers when he came out of college with the exception that Geno tries to put too much touch on the ball versus zip where Rogers tried to put too much zip on the ball versus touch.

However, the tools are there. It's not like a guy like Barkley who will never have the arm, or a guy like Glennon, who will never have the accuracy. Geno has both the arm and the accuracy and has exhibited the capability to do both in a game time situation.

The thing that Prisco mentions that is ultimately true was that WVU's offensive line was an absolute sieve. And that the Mountaineer defense was 117th out of 124th. Geno was throwing under pressure all game long, nearly every single game and he still passes for 71.2% completion and 42 TD's vs. 6 Ints. That's freaking ridiculous. His performances in the Marshall, James Madison, Baylor and Kansas games were things most QB's can't even do in practice against air.

A year or two under Reid's tuteledge and you'll see what an All-Pro QB is supposed to look like.
This. Geno is a high probability bet. He's not a sure thing, but he has the potential to be great.
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Old 03-28-2013, 08:28 PM   #59
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so, shockingly.... those who hate geno LOVE the article, those who love geno HATE the article.

the world keeps going round.
I like Geno. I like the article.
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Old 03-28-2013, 08:38 PM   #60
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Geno has as many tools for the position as I've seen out of anyone not named Luck over the past decade.
No, he does not.

Not only does he lack the explosiveness of Cam Newton or RGIII in the run game and the arm strength of Kaepernick or Newton or Eli Manning, he has the personality of a dead Muppet.

The guy has no charisma, he has no "pizazz" and he has no sizzle.

You're smoking too much synthetic.
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Geno > Cam
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Originally Posted by gochiefs(exceptQB) View Post
Dane is gonna have to leave again after we draft Geno.

He faces monstrous backlash.
Posts: 48,886
DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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