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Old 12-11-2012, 09:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 11:01 AM..
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Old 04-17-2013, 11:00 AM   #3001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siberian khatru View Post
Hosmer, Moustakas not looking good so far

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...ng-good-so-far

Snippet:

In Hosmer's case, he just isn't driving the ball -- at all. He had his one double to deep left-center and one fly out to deep left, but after flying out twice and striking out twice on Tuesday, he now has 12 ground balls in play and six fly balls. He has hit seven line drives, but those lines drives aren't being driven into the gaps.

This is somewhat similar to the issue he faced last year when he had trouble pulling the ball with much authority -- he only pulled three home runs all season (he hit seven to the opposite field and four just to the right of center). You can be a good hitter even if your natural stroke goes to the opposite field, but unless you possess the raw power of someone like Ryan Howard or David Ortiz, you're not going to develop into a big home run hitter unless you pull the ball more. Hosmer hit .284 and slugged .444 against fastballs last year, which sounds pretty good, but the major-league averages were .295 and .485 for qualified regular. Hosmer ranked in the 42nd percentile in batting average and 32nd percentile in slugging percentage against the fastball. The trouble is, he was even worse against "soft" stuff -- he hit .177 and slugged .245, well below the .242 and .393 marks of the 144 qualified regulars.

I would argue that it all stems off hitting the fastball. If he can't catch up to the good fastballs, he's going to struggle much more against offspeed stuff. So far in 2013, he's 0-for-14 in plate appearances ending in fastballs. Until he shows he can hit the hard stuff with authority, Hosmer isn't going to meet the lofty expectations everyone had for him after his rookie season.




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Old 04-17-2013, 11:14 AM   #3002
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siberian khatru View Post
Hosmer, Moustakas not looking good so far

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...ng-good-so-far

Snippet:

In Hosmer's case, he just isn't driving the ball -- at all. He had his one double to deep left-center and one fly out to deep left, but after flying out twice and striking out twice on Tuesday, he now has 12 ground balls in play and six fly balls. He has hit seven line drives, but those lines drives aren't being driven into the gaps.

This is somewhat similar to the issue he faced last year when he had trouble pulling the ball with much authority -- he only pulled three home runs all season (he hit seven to the opposite field and four just to the right of center). You can be a good hitter even if your natural stroke goes to the opposite field, but unless you possess the raw power of someone like Ryan Howard or David Ortiz, you're not going to develop into a big home run hitter unless you pull the ball more. Hosmer hit .284 and slugged .444 against fastballs last year, which sounds pretty good, but the major-league averages were .295 and .485 for qualified regular. Hosmer ranked in the 42nd percentile in batting average and 32nd percentile in slugging percentage against the fastball. The trouble is, he was even worse against "soft" stuff -- he hit .177 and slugged .245, well below the .242 and .393 marks of the 144 qualified regulars.

I would argue that it all stems off hitting the fastball. If he can't catch up to the good fastballs, he's going to struggle much more against offspeed stuff. So far in 2013, he's 0-for-14 in plate appearances ending in fastballs. Until he shows he can hit the hard stuff with authority, Hosmer isn't going to meet the lofty expectations everyone had for him after his rookie season.
That is really bad news, actually. Hopefully its just small sample size. There are a lot of things you can learn as a hitter, especially with plate discipline or recognizing off-speed stuff or adjusting your swing mechanics, but you either have the reaction time to catch up to the fastball, or you don't. I'm pretty sure thats just something you are born with.
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Old 04-17-2013, 11:24 AM   #3003
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I think Hosmer might need to open his stance back up.

He didn't have any problem getting around on inside pitches in his rookie year or in the minors. His stance was more open at that time, and that typically helps you see/recognize and respond to inside pitches. Especially if you're a guy with a good opposite field approach.
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Old 04-17-2013, 12:05 PM   #3004
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I'm not sure why they haven't opened up his stance already. Every time hos is at two strikes, the pitchers start feeding him inside fastballs because its well known that he has a hole there.
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Old 04-18-2013, 01:50 AM   #3005
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Meanwhile, in the minors:

Bubba has 55 ABs and has struck out in 26 of those. I check the box tonight and see a 2 for 6 with an RBI and a run. Not bad I think to myself. Then I see he struck out in his four other at bats. Yikes.

Many of our other hitting prospects aren't doing much better. Looking at the list of our top guys, I'm seeing many sub .600 OPS's and zero home runs. Calixte, Bonifacio, Cuthbert, Mondesi, etc.

Jason Adam has been awful in his first taste of AA ball, with an ERA over 17 (24 hits in 10 innings !). On the other hand, Ventura, Zimmer and several other pitching prospects have been pretty good so far.

It's early yet, but the struggles of our young major league hitters, with the struggles of some of our minor leaguers has me questioning our player development (probably unwarranted, but they need some guys to come up and succeed).
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Old 04-18-2013, 01:51 AM   #3006
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Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
I'm not sure why they haven't opened up his stance already. Every time hos is at two strikes, the pitchers start feeding him inside fastballs because its well known that he has a hole there.
Right. If he's going to have a hole, I'd rather it be on the outside corner than the inside corner. At least he could (theoretically) turn on the inside pitch with power if he were opened up.
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Old 04-18-2013, 05:27 AM   #3007
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Damn, Detroit won in overtime.
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Old 04-18-2013, 06:14 AM   #3008
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Damn, Detroit won in overtime.
In baseball it's referred to as extra innings. And **** my Seattle Mariners for letting those assholes strike out that many times in two games and then letting them win both anyways.
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Old 04-18-2013, 07:27 AM   #3009
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In baseball it's referred to as extra innings. And **** my Seattle Mariners for letting those assholes strike out that many times in two games and then letting them win both anyways.
Ah I knew it wasn't called "overtime" but I couldn't remember the correct term. Thanks.
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Old 04-18-2013, 08:44 AM   #3010
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Originally Posted by KevB View Post
Meanwhile, in the minors:

Bubba has 55 ABs and has struck out in 26 of those. I check the box tonight and see a 2 for 6 with an RBI and a run. Not bad I think to myself. Then I see he struck out in his four other at bats. Yikes.

Many of our other hitting prospects aren't doing much better. Looking at the list of our top guys, I'm seeing many sub .600 OPS's and zero home runs. Calixte, Bonifacio, Cuthbert, Mondesi, etc.

Jason Adam has been awful in his first taste of AA ball, with an ERA over 17 (24 hits in 10 innings !). On the other hand, Ventura, Zimmer and several other pitching prospects have been pretty good so far.

It's early yet, but the struggles of our young major league hitters, with the struggles of some of our minor leaguers has me questioning our player development (probably unwarranted, but they need some guys to come up and succeed).
Not sure what was going on in that Lexington game, because they struck out 19 times as a team last night. Very weird game.

Starling is lost at the plate right now, though. We've talked about it a lot in here already, and I don't think there's much to add other than... his swing mechanics look awkward. And the longer they look bad, the more it looks like it is about him and not about a new batting stance/approach/mechanics.

Mondesi's stats don't matter that much. He's a 17-year old in full season league. For comparison, when Profar was that age, he OPSed .696 in the Northwest League. The scouting reports are what you have to rely on with him (and so far, they still glow).

I would expect young hitters to struggle in the Carolina league (High-A Wilmington). That's a terrible hitters park, and the league is full of them (it also is extremely cold up there for baseball).

So I wouldn't put much stock in the overall numbers of guys in Wilmington. I believe that includes Cuthbert and Bonifacio. That's a tough environment, and both of those guys are STILL young for that league. Especially Bonifacio.

I'm a little surprised Calixte hasn't taken off at AA, after a strong year at Wilmington in 2012, but he typically has been a slow starter. I'll give that another 15 games, at least, before I start worrying about him.

Sum: Starling is really the only hitter I'm concerned about at this point, and maybe a little with Cuthbert. It's still too early to take much from the hitting stats. Unless they're striking out in half their at-bats. Which is always bad...

On the flip side, the Royals pitching performances have been pretty great so far. Still a small sample size, but...

Omaha
Will Smith has been excellent so far in this tough pitcher's league (23 Ks in 16 IP, 23:6 K:BB), and Chris Dwyer looks to have found himself all of a sudden (He's walking guys at only a league average rate - 3 per 9 - which has always been his issue. If that improved control sticks around...)

NWA
Yordy Ventura has been outstanding so far, and Noelle Arguelles has been surprisingly effective (seems to have recovered some of his lost velocity.

Wilmington

Again, this is a pitcher's league, but the Royals have received great returns.
Kyle Zimmer has been dominant, which was expected. Kyle Smith has also been dominant, which probably was not expected. John Lamb is pitching well so far and still is building up velocity. Angel Baez has control issues, but his results and stuff are dazzling. And Sam Selman has also been very good, though the walk totals are dangerously high.

Lexington

Bryan Brickhouse seems to be finding himself at Lexington, and pitching well, and early returns on Miguel Almonte have been GLOWING (Baseball Prospectus saw him this spring and proclaimed he was equivalent to Zimmer as a prospect afterwards).

Side note: I feel like I should mention something about Fred Ford, who is also at Lexington. Late-round pick out of a mid-MO JUCO is Starling's mirror from a physical standpoint (6-5, looks like a stud) and has been the superior hitter so far at each level (They've come up together). He doesn't have the hall of fame upside Starling does (not a GG-level defender or super-elite athlete), but if he continues to hit, that takes some sting out of potential failure from Starling.

Will be fun to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
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Old 04-21-2013, 10:24 PM   #3011
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Remember that shitty Twins team we swept? They are 8-4 when not playing the Royals.
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Old 04-21-2013, 10:34 PM   #3012
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Remember that shitty Twins team we swept? They are 8-4 when not playing the Royals.
They're still shitty.
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Old 04-21-2013, 10:57 PM   #3013
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Remember that shitty Twins team we swept? They are 8-4 when not playing the Royals.
They are in 2nd place.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:01 PM   #3014
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:06 PM   #3015
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