***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance

• Made the postseason 10 times in the last 14 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi

Lackey really hasn't pitched that poorly today, just run into shitloads of poor luck.

Um...what?

Lackey pitched like shit last night. He was throwing batting practice. If he wasn't up with his pitch, he was rolling it into the zone.

He pitched as poorly as a major league pitcher is capable of pitching. With incredible defense behind him he'd have still given up 6. Lackey deserved his ass-kicking last night.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

They just drafted him in the first round

I don't get that comp at all.

Plummer has more bat speed right this very second than Jon Jay will ever have. Jay's a hands swinger that can guide the bat to the ball but can't also explode through the zone with it.

Plummer, OTOH, has those explosive hands and loose wrists that I first saw with Beltran in his Royals days and I see it in Wong as well.

He's a big time boom/bust prospect, but he won't be Jon Jay. He'll either be nothing or he'll develop and I could see him being an Alex Gordon kind of offensive talent. Maybe a rich man's Cole Kalhoun. A lefty Khris Davis?

Sportscasters get lazy. They see a short black dude with a thick build playing centerfield and they say "Jon Jay!" but really, there's nothing in that kid's toolbox that says Jon Jay is an intelligent comp, IMO. Truth be told, he'd be fortunate to end up with the 12-15 career WAR Jay will probably have by the time his career is out - the odds overwhelmingly suggest Plummer won't be as good a player as Jon Jay on balance. However, if he does make the show, he's going to be nothing like Jon Jay.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Plummer more than likely will end up a COF. He has a weak arm, which is certainly Jay-esque, and he comes from Michigan, so little is known about him because he doesn't have the exposure of the southern or western prospects. Still, I think it's a good pick.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Plummer more than likely will end up a COF. He has a weak arm, which is certainly Jay-esque, and he comes from Michigan, so little is known about him because he doesn't have the exposure of the southern or western prospects. Still, I think it's a good pick.

If Jay can play a credible CF, why can't Plummer?

By all accounts, Plummer's a better athlete than Jay. And yeah, the arm won't play in RF but arm strength is way WAY down on my list for CFers (truthfully, it's not even that high up on my list for RFers anymore; it's more sizzle than steak more often than not).

The kid will never be Bourjos out there but the state of CF in MLB is such that if he can give you Jon Jay's level of defense with 15-20 HRs and a .350 OBP, you're talking about a legitimate All-Star. If you put that in the corner, you're talking about...well Kole Calhoun.

It's possible that he ends up in LF, but I think the Cards will be extremely patient with him in CF first. If the bat comes along, I think he stays in CF.

[duncan_idaho]

Just polling here, because I was a little surprised by a Cards fan/friend I was chatting with earlier. We were talking about bat targets, and he was adamant that he would not include Marco Gonzales in any trade.

I get having that take with Carlos Martinez/Wacha/Alex Reyes, but was a little surprised to see it applied to Gonzales.

Am I missing something here? Or is my buddy a little higher on Marco than he should be?

[ChiefsCountry]

What's the update on Holliday? Looked liked Frazod was playing grass monster in Coors, hopefully he is not out long, damn good player.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Just polling here, because I was a little surprised by a Cards fan/friend I was chatting with earlier. We were talking about bat targets, and he was adamant that he would not include Marco Gonzales in any trade.

I get having that take with Carlos Martinez/Wacha/Alex Reyes, but was a little surprised to see it applied to Gonzales.

Am I missing something here? Or is my buddy a little higher on Marco than he should be?

Marco looked really, really good in ST and he's the only LHP we have who is close. Also, he is becoming a near five pitch pitcher.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Just polling here, because I was a little surprised by a Cards fan/friend I was chatting with earlier. We were talking about bat targets, and he was adamant that he would not include Marco Gonzales in any trade.

I get having that take with Carlos Martinez/Wacha/Alex Reyes, but was a little surprised to see it applied to Gonzales.

Am I missing something here? Or is my buddy a little higher on Marco than he should be?

I disagree with Hamas here and by a fair amount.

Marco's not a 5 pitch pitcher; he's not even a 3 pitch pitcher. He didn't look amazing in spring, ERA be damned. He wasn't missing bats at all and was mostly relying on the heavy winds in Florida to keep the ball in the yard. With 7 walks to only 9 Ks in 17 innings, his stuff was by no means sharp (and that was without going through the order a third time).

He lost the 5th starter derby handily, IMO. Not just to Martinez, but Garcia looked substantially better than Marco as well. Then he went to AAA and wasn't good before getting injured.

Gonzalez is a nice prospect as a 4th starter, IMO. He needs to continue to increase his GB rates and work on a better weapon to neutralize lefties. His changeup will help his 90 mph fastball play up to RH hitters but lefties will sit back on it because he lacks the 95 mph fastball to keep them honest that Wacha has against righties. Until he gets a truly major league caliber breaking ball, I don't see much upside here. Even then, with 3 pitches and only one of them as a really 'plus' pitch (and it's not his fastball), I don't see him as getting into the top half of a good team's rotation. Unless he developed the command of Glavine or the otherwordly movement of Garcia, what's his true asset? A lefty starter isn't going to be able to go out there and dominate off 8 mph of separation on his changeup and little else.

I wouldn't just dump him because a 4th starter with 6 years of team control is extremely valuable. That said, as down as I was on Shelby Miller even at the time of that trade, I'd never say that Marco is presently a more valuable asset than Miller was when the deal was made. So really what you have in Marco is the guy that can be the centerpiece of a deal for a complementary player or perhaps the #2 guy in a trade for a difference maker.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Marco looked really, really good in ST and he's the only LHP we have who is close. Also, he is becoming a near five pitch pitcher.

Kaminsky is farther away than I thought.

I just thought it was strange that Marco was an absolute non-negotiable point for him, considering the Cardinals wealth of young pitching.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Marco looked really, really good in ST and he's the only LHP we have who is close. Also, he is becoming a near five pitch pitcher.

What separates him from either Cooney or Lyons in your eyes?

I honestly think Lyons will be a better starter than Marco over the next 3-4 seasons if he were given a chance. He already has a better fastball and an mlb average slider (that he's developed the ability to get on top of and make it a bit of a slurve at times). His changeup lags behind Marco's but not as much as you might think, especially when Marco's 'thing' his his change.

I just don't see what makes Marco Gonzalez a hotshot prospect and Tyler Lyons an afterthought. Lyons is more polished, has better raw stuff right now and has advanced every year he's been in the organization. No, he's not projectable at all at 27 yrs old, but I honestly don't see much projection in Gonzales anyway, even at 23. I think what Lyons is now is only a little worse than Marco's peak projection.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I disagree with Hamas here and by a fair amount.

Marco's not a 5 pitch pitcher; he's not even a 3 pitch pitcher. He didn't look amazing in spring, ERA be damned. He wasn't missing bats at all and was mostly relying on the heavy winds in Florida to keep the ball in the yard. With 7 walks to only 9 Ks in 17 innings, his stuff was by no means sharp (and that was without going through the order a third time).

He lost the 5th starter derby handily, IMO. Not just to Martinez, but Garcia looked substantially better than Marco as well. Then he went to AAA and wasn't good before getting injured.

Gonzalez is a nice prospect as a 4th starter, IMO. He needs to continue to increase his GB rates and work on a better weapon to neutralize lefties. His changeup will help his 90 mph fastball play up to RH hitters but lefties will sit back on it because he lacks the 95 mph fastball to keep them honest that Wacha has against righties. Until he gets a truly major league caliber breaking ball, I don't see much upside here. Even then, with 3 pitches and only one of them as a really 'plus' pitch (and it's not his fastball), I don't see him as getting into the top half of a good team's rotation. Unless he developed the command of Glavine or the otherwordly movement of Garcia, what's his true asset? A lefty starter isn't going to be able to go out there and dominate off 8 mph of separation on his changeup and little else.

I wouldn't just dump him because a 4th starter with 6 years of team control is extremely valuable. That said, as down as I was on Shelby Miller even at the time of that trade, I'd never say that Marco is presently a more valuable asset than Miller was when the deal was made. So really what you have in Marco is the guy that can be the centerpiece of a deal for a complementary player or perhaps the #2 guy in a trade for a difference maker.

This is more in line with what I was thinking/expecting with Gonzales. High floor, low ceiling.

He came up as part of a package for the slumping and expensive Carlos Gonzalez (who is starting to hit like himself again). My buddy acted like I'd suggested including Alex Reyes or something...

(BTW, thanks to heavy discussion of him on here, I am all over Reyes in long-term fantasy leagues. I might even slot him ahead of Lucas Giolito...)

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

This is more in line with what I was thinking/expecting with Gonzales. High floor, low ceiling.

He came up as part of a package for the slumping and expensive Carlos Gonzalez (who is starting to hit like himself again). My buddy acted like I'd suggested including Alex Reyes or something...

(BTW, thanks to heavy discussion of him on here, I am all over Reyes in long-term fantasy leagues. I might even slot him ahead of Lucas Giolito...)

That wouldn't be a bad start.

I think CarGo is wildly overrated and would struggle pretty mightily away from Coors, but if the Rox would take on about $5 million of the $37 million he's owed over the next two years, it would possibly be a worthwhile gamble.

Depends on what the rest of the deal would be. What Gonzalez does give you is the depth in your system to not have to trade James Ramsey for Justin Masterson when your stud young righty has a 'stress reaction' in his shoulder. With Lackey likely not returning next year (I can't see the Cards paying him what he'll want; though a QO isn't out of the question) and Garcia's option unlikely to be picked up, even if Waino recovers we'll have a thin rotation absent a major FA addition.

Like I said, a cost-controlled 4th/5th starter is not without value. If we were to deal him for Cargo at $16 million/season, we'd need to come up with another $8-12 million to replace him at the back of the rotation (and that's if you're just looking for a 4/5). So is Cargo worth that? Tough question. In that light, with his injury issues and massive home/road splits, the Rox may need to take on quite a bit more of that salary than I thought at first blush before I'd bite.

[O.city]

Do you put cargo in left? I'm going off the assumption that Holliday is done for the year and that I've fully attached myself to Heyward getting his shit together

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Do you put cargo in left? I'm going off the assumption that Holliday is done for the year and that I've fully attached myself to Heyward getting his shit together

I can only presume that the operating assumption for Duncan's conversation is that yes, Holliday is done for the year.

Ultimately, however, if Holliday is only gone for say 3 months and in September you get him back, why couldn't you shift Heyward to CF? He's played it in the past and would definitely be no worse than Jay's equal defensively.

Holliday - Heyward - Cargo would be a fine defensive alignment.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I can only presume that the operating assumption for Duncan's conversation is that yes, Holliday is done for the year.

Ultimately, however, if Holliday is only gone for say 3 months and in September you get him back, why couldn't you shift Heyward to CF? He's played it in the past and would definitely be no worse than Jay's equal defensively.

Holliday - Heyward - Cargo would be a fine defensive alignment.

I'd be good with that. Honestly though, I'm starting to look at life after Holliday here a bit.

Theoretically, you could go with cargo in left, grichuk/Bourjos in center, and Heyward in left for the longterm.

Alot of that thoigh is based on the hope/assumption that Heyward keeps going as he is and improves to a level they feel comfortable signing long term.