***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance

• Made the postseason 10 times in the last 14 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by O.city

Do you put cargo in left? I'm going off the assumption that Holliday is done for the year and that I've fully attached myself to Heyward getting his shit together

In that case, if Holliday came back, either he or CarGo plays 1B. I feel like CarGo has at least a few games there in the past (while resting hamstrings?).

Can't imagine either would be worse than Matt "I throw like a girl" Adams.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd be good with that. Honestly though, I'm starting to look at life after Holliday here a bit.

Theoretically, you could go with cargo in left, grichuk/Bourjos in center, and Heyward in left for the longterm.

Alot of that thoigh is based on the hope/assumption that Heyward keeps going as he is and improves to a level they feel comfortable signing long term.

Life after Holliday doesn't really involve trading for Cargo though.

His contract goes through the 2017 season - the same year that Holliday's goes through. Even if you were confident that a 31 yr old Carlos Gonzalez would be a wise investment, you could just get him in FA at that point.

With as many lower body injuries as he's had, I don't see him as a viable long-term replacement for Holliday. If you're making a move for him, you essentially have to have a plan on how to work him AND Holliday into the lineup; much as they did with Berkman and Beltran.

Really, it's not that tough - either Heyward in CF or Heyward walks and it's Bourjos/Jay in CF. Either way, a Gonzalez trade isn't designed with a post-Holliday world in mind, IMO.

[O.city]

I didn't realize cargo was or would be 31. Yeah, probably pass on that.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Would likely pass. How are his Home/Away splits?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Would likely pass. How are his Home/Away splits?

Severe.

Like, Mike Trout at home, Juan Encarnacion on the road.

Like I said, the more I thought about it, the less enthused I was. It wasn't because of the cost of acquiring, it was the contract, splits and injury concerns. He's probably a guy I wouldn't put a waiver claim on if they tried to slip him through so really (making him free for the cost of his contract).

So you'd be trading Marco exclusively for whatever salary relief he'd grant you. Well if you figure on Gonzalez being an 8 WAR pitcher over the 6 years of team control (pretty reasonable estimate), that's going to be about $40-$45 million on the open market on a $$/WAR basis. I suspect it would only cost the Cards about $20 million over that same time period (keeping everything in today's dollars for the sake of simplicity).

So Marco has, conservatively, a surplus value to the Cards of about $20 million, IMO. Would taking CarGo's 2/$37 million down to 2/$16 million be worth giving up Gonzalez? I guess it depends on how you feel about Marco. If you think he'll be more like Lance Lynn over the last 3-4 years of team control, you're looking at 10-12 WAR or more and you just got waxed in that deal.

The Rox would need to eat about $20 million to get me to listen, I think.

[O.city]

Wait, are we thnking Marco alone would get Cargo?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I can only presume that the operating assumption for Duncan's conversation is that yes, Holliday is done for the year.

Ultimately, however, if Holliday is only gone for say 3 months and in September you get him back, why couldn't you shift Heyward to CF? He's played it in the past and would definitely be no worse than Jay's equal defensively.

Holliday - Heyward - Cargo would be a fine defensive alignment.

The buddy I was chatting with was talking about the Cardinals and their shot to win it all this year depending on picking up another bat who could be an impact guy.

That's why I was surprised when he was unwilling to part with a guy like Gonzales for anything. And I suspect Colorado would want something more in return for CarGo, especially if being asked to eat money along the way.

Something like Adam Lind probably makes a lot more sense for the Cardinals... the price will be lower and he probably provides just as much impact.

[O.city]

Word on twitter is that while they're still waiting on mri results, Holliday injury not suspected to be as severe ad Adams.

[Rams Fan]

Originally Posted by O.city

Wait, are we thnking Marco alone would get Cargo?

Marco alone would not be anywhere close to get CarGo.

And **** CarGo in Colorado, the real one is in Milwaukee.

I'm on the Zobrist wagon, or **** it, Chris Davis.

[kcpasco]

Holliday going on 15 day DL and they call up a reliever. That doesn't make much sense. You would hope Bourjos would start so at least that would leave Jay as a left hand option off the bench. But who am I kidding, we all know Jay will start.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Wait, are we thnking Marco alone would get Cargo?

Marco is too much to give up for Cargo - that's my point.

I believe Carlos Gonzalez is worth maybe 5 wins over the next 2+ years due to his splits, injury issues and the very real possibility that accumulated injury has simply caused his skills to erode.

That makes him a $30 million player over the next 2 seasons. As I said - I wouldn't take the guy for free if he were put on waivers; his contract is about 15% more than his actual production will warrant, IMO.

So right there I'm starting from the position that if I'm taking Carlos Gonzalez AND his contract, I'm not giving up a single thing for him. So from there I just need to figure out his value and what I'd be willing to give up.

I forgot to include his negative book value in my first analysis so really, even that isn't right. If Marco Gonzalez has $20 million in surplus value to the Cardinals and Carlos Gonzalez is already about $7 million overpriced, I'm going to need them to close the $27 million gap in actual value to the team. And that doesn't even get into the fact that any WAR that Carlos Gonzales provides comes at the expense of what Grichuk or Jay would provide as he's their likely replacement. From a marginal WAR perspective, 5 WAR over two years might actually be giving him too much credit.

The Rockies for the last 2 years have said that they refuse to move Cargo or Tulo at any sort of injury discount and frankly, that's just ****ing stupid. Staying healthy is a skill and a damn big one. That's like me saying I'm not willing to trade Peter Bourjos for anything less than he'd be worth if he could hit 20 HRs and get on base at a .330 clip. He doesn't have those skills, just as Cargo and Tulo lack the ability to stay healthy. The Rockies can trump up what it would take to get Marco all they want but I guarantee you that NOBODY will give them anything approximating Marco Gonzalez without them eating at least $10 million of that deal.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

The buddy I was chatting with was talking about the Cardinals and their shot to win it all this year depending on picking up another bat who could be an impact guy.

That's why I was surprised when he was unwilling to part with a guy like Gonzales for anything. And I suspect Colorado would want something more in return for CarGo, especially if being asked to eat money along the way.

Something like Adam Lind probably makes a lot more sense for the Cardinals... the price will be lower and he probably provides just as much impact.

Lind is my preferred target as well. He might actually be an impact bat. He's been a very good hitter for the last 2+ seasons or so and while he has health concerns of his own, he doesn't come with a long-term contractual liability as well.

Lind for Cooney seems fair to me. The Brewers gave up Marco Estrada to get him; if they move him for Cooney they get a guy who's probably about the same level of pitcher that they gave up - 5th starterish - though with 6 years of control.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

Marco alone would not be anywhere close to get CarGo.

And **** CarGo in Colorado, the real one is in Milwaukee.

I'm on the Zobrist wagon, or **** it, Chris Davis.

Over his last 500 ABs, Carlos Gonazez has been worth -.6 WAR. He's been below replacement value.

To put that in perspective, Allen Craig was worth -.6 WAR over 400 ABs last year. That's how bad, and for how long, Carlos Gonzalez has been for the Rockies and that's WITH the added benefit of playing in Coors Field.

Allen Craig is owed $21 million over the next 2 seasons and just went through waivers unclaimed. If a guy that was no worse than Cargo who is owed 60% of what Cargo is owed (who didn't have the Coors effect inflating his production when he was struggling) isn't worth making a free claim on, why is Cargo worth more than Marco Gonzalez?

I think people are failing to recognize what's happened to Carlos Gonzalez over the last 2 seasons. The guy's body is breaking down.

[DJ's left nut]

One last bit of perspective here - as bad as Heyward has been, if plays at no better than the aggregate level he's played at thus far - i.e. alternating abysmal months with merely tolerable months as he did in April and May - he'd be worth approximately 1.8 WAR. That's essentially 2.5 wins more valuable than Cargo over his last 500 ABs or about about $15 million on the open market. And that's presuming zero improvement over his last 2 months.

Jon Jay in 2012 - the year he was so bad that we traded a WS hero and local icon in an attempt to replace him - was worth 1.4 WAR; 2 WAR better than Cargo has been over the last 2 seasons.

Now I don't believe WAR to be wholly dispositive of the discussion, but it's worth reminding you of just how low the bar for 'replacement level' truly is. Matt Adams was worth .2 WAR for the shitfest of a season he had before his quad blew out, FFS. Whether or not you believe WAR to be a truly all-inclusive stat, you can't deny that it means SOMETHING when you Cargo's performances have been on par with some of the worst Cardinals performances in recent memory and that's WITH Coors backing him.

The guy probably sucks now. He might not, but if it were your neck on the line if the deal backfired, I can't imagine you'd make this trade (and definitely not if it were your $37 million).

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

Marco alone would not be anywhere close to get CarGo.

This. And **** CarGo. Not feeling him as an upgrade at all.

We are going to need someone to pitch some of Wacha and Martinez's innings this year. Gonzalez is the prime candidate.