**** cdcox's OFFICIAL where are we drafting NOW thread **** - Page 15

**cdcox** · 06:35 PM

WE DRAFT 4TH (25%) or 5 th (75%) PENDING THE OUTCOME OF TWO COIN FLIPS Details in thread.

I'm starting the 80th billionth thread on this subject. I'll keep the thread starter up to date so that people can see what is happening without wading through multiple threads.

If the Chiefs lose we will draft between the 3rd and 5th.

To get the 3rd we need:

A Chiefs loss

AND

An Oakland win

AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING TWO

{(A Denver Loss) -OR- ( a Coin Flip win)

To get the 4th we need:

A Chiefs loss

AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING THREE OUTCOMES

(An Oakland win) -OR- (A Denver Loss) -OR- (TWO Coin Flip wins)

To get the 5th we need:

A Chiefs loss

If the Chiefs win we will draft between the 6th and 8th.

To get the 6th we need:

KC to win (blah)

Oakland to win AND
Baltimore to win AND
Minnesota to win AND
Indy to win

To get the 7th we need:

KC to win (blah)

AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING 2:

(Wins by Baltimore and Indy) -OR- Oakland win

Otherwise a KC win causes us to draft 8th

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 12-31-2007, 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Actually we need two coin flips to go our way to get the 4th spot.

The first one is between Atlanta and Oakland. If Atlanta wins that one, there will not be a second coin flip because the loser of the flip (Oakland) would have the tiebreaker over us and we will pick 5th.

If Oakland wins the flip between them and Atlanta, Oakland would get the 3rd and Atlanta would still be tied with us. And we'd need one more coin flip to decide between us and Atlanta for the 4th and 5th spot.

Since we need two flips to go our way to get the 4th, our odds are 25% to get the 4th spot and 75% to get the 5th spot.

Shit, the way things have gone for Atlanta this year, I say it's a stone cold lock we pick 4th.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 12-31-2007, 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

The NFL network reported the following:

1. Miami

2. St. Louis

3. Atlanta/Oakland

4. Atlanta/Oakland/Kansas City

5. Atlanta/Kansas City

6. New York Jets

I knew I was wrong when I posted this about the 5th pick. I just couldn't remember who was excluded. It was Oakland. The loop should be coming up on NFL network for anyone interested. They can confirm this. I guess Oakland got the official last place finish this year. I guess that's a positive for us not getting a shot at the 3.

**cdcox** · 12-31-2007, 01:03 AM

Flopnuts, BadGuy and Bowser:

Let me run trough it one more time.

Miami gets the first 1-15
StL get the second. 3-13

Now Oakland, us and Atlanta are tied for the third with the same record (4-12) and the same SOS.

We have to break the tie with Oakland first, since we are in the same divsion.

Oakland must pick before us because they win the division tiebreaker (an 11 step procedure) based on KC having a stronger record against common opponents. Therefore KC cannot pick before Oakland.

Now who should pick first between Oakland and Atlanta. Here the tiebreaker is a coin flip since Atlanta and Oakland are not in the same conference or the same division.

If Atlanta wins the coin flip they will pick 3rd. Oakland will pick 4th because the have to pick before KC. And we will pick 5th.

If Oakland wins the coin flip agains Atlanta, they will pick 3rd. Who picks 4th and 5th? Again we would need a coin flip between KC and Atlanta to determine this.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 12-31-2007, 01:05 AM

CD,

I answered my own question from my PM earlier in this thread.

Disregard.

Thanks for doing this, BTW.

**Bowser** · 12-31-2007, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Flopnuts, BadGuy and Bowser:

Let me run trough it one more time.

Miami gets the first 1-15
StL get the second. 3-13

Now Oakland, us and Atlanta are tied for the third with the same record (4-12) and the same SOS.

We have to break the tie with Oakland first, since we are in the same divsion.

Oakland must pick before us because they win the division tiebreaker (an 11 step procedure) based on KC having a stronger record against common opponents. Therefore KC cannot pick before Oakland.

Now who should pick first between Oakland and Atlanta. Here the tiebreaker is a coin flip since Atlanta and Oakland are not in the same conference or the same division.

If Atlanta wins the coin flip they will pick 3rd. Oakland will pick 4th because the have to pick before KC. And we will pick 5th.

If Oakland wins the coin flip agains Atlanta, they will pick 3rd. Who picks 4th and 5th? Again we would need a coin flip between KC and Atlanta to determine this.

Got it. Thanks for being patient and explaining this again and again.

**The Bad Guy** · 12-31-2007, 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Flopnuts, BadGuy and Bowser:

Let me run trough it one more time.

Miami gets the first 1-15
StL get the second. 3-13

Now Oakland, us and Atlanta are tied for the third with the same record (4-12) and the same SOS.

We have to break the tie with Oakland first, since we are in the same divsion.

Oakland must pick before us because they win the division tiebreaker (an 11 step procedure) based on KC having a stronger record against common opponents. Therefore KC cannot pick before Oakland.

Now who should pick first between Oakland and Atlanta. Here the tiebreaker is a coin flip since Atlanta and Oakland are not in the same conference or the same division.

If Atlanta wins the coin flip they will pick 3rd. Oakland will pick 4th because the have to pick before KC. And we will pick 5th.

If Oakland wins the coin flip agains Atlanta, they will pick 3rd. Who picks 4th and 5th? Again we would need a coin flip between KC and Atlanta to determine this.

I'm not doubting you, I'm just saying if you finish last in your division, that should be enough to get the higher pick if SOS is tied.

Regardless, the Raiders will take McFadden and I bet the Falcons take a QB so it doesn't matter really in the grand scheme of things.

If Dorsey and Long go 1-2, this is going to suck.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 12-31-2007, 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

I'm not doubting you, I'm just saying if you finish last in your division, that should be enough to get the higher pick if SOS is tied.

Regardless, the Raiders will take McFadden and I bet the Falcons take a QB so it doesn't matter really in the grand scheme of things.

If Dorsey and Long go 1-2, this is going to suck.

It is.

We didn't finish last.

http://www.nfl.com/standings

**cdcox** · 12-31-2007, 01:10 AM

If what the NFL network is reporting is holds up, I got it right and beat the NFL network by 6 hours.

Atlanta Journal Constitution - wrong

Lenny - wrong

Mitch - wrong

KC Metro Sports - wrong

**OnTheWarpath15** · 12-31-2007, 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

If what the NFL network is reporting is holds up, I got it right and beat the NFL network by 6 hours.

Atlanta Journal Constitution - wrong

Lenny - wrong

Mitch - wrong

KC Metro Sports - wrong

Yep.

Good work.

mcan · 12-31-2007, 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

If what the NFL network is reporting is holds up, I got it right and beat the NFL network by 6 hours.

Atlanta Journal Constitution - wrong

Lenny - wrong

Mitch - wrong

KC Metro Sports - wrong

[Pat on back] There, there... Go get 'em tiger! [/Pat on back]

Seriously though, nice job.

philfree · 12-31-2007, 01:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

I'm not doubting you, I'm just saying if you finish last in your division, that should be enough to get the higher pick if SOS is tied.

Regardless, the Raiders will take McFadden and I bet the Falcons take a QB so it doesn't matter really in the grand scheme of things.

If Dorsey and Long go 1-2, this is going to suck.

I hope you're right about the Raiders picking DMc and Atlanta taking a QB. That'd simplify our pick depending upon who goes 1st overall. kinda puts Jake Long in our lap unless Miami doesn't take Dorsey then he's in our lap. I'd like the latter because they'll be good value at OT in the 2nd round.

PhilFree

**The Bad Guy** · 12-31-2007, 01:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree

I hope you're right about the Raiders picking DMc and Atlanta taking a QB. That'd simplify our pick depending upon who goes 1st overall. kinda puts Jake Long in our lap unless Miami doesn't take Dorsey then he's in our lap. I'd like the latter because they'll be good value at OT in the 2nd round.

PhilFree

I can't see the Rams passing up Dorsey or Long.

Pray Miami takes a QB.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 12-31-2007, 01:22 AM

Ok.

ESPN Sportscenter is now reporting that 3 4 and 5 will be decided by tiebreakers tomorrow between Atl. Oak. and KC. ESPN is reporting that KC could still be picking 3rd, and Oak could be picking 5th.

**cdcox** · 12-31-2007, 01:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

Ok.

ESPN Sportscenter is now reporting that 3 4 and 5 will be decided by tiebreakers tomorrow between Atl. Oak. and KC. ESPN is reporting that KC could still be picking 3rd, and Oak could be picking 5th.

Al Davis will have a COW (and rightly so) if KC drafts before Oakland.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 12-31-2007, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Al Davis will have a COW (and rightly so) if KC drafts before Oakland.

I appreciate you being so patient with this, and explaining it for me. That said, and I want to make sure you understand, I mean no disrespect to you personally what so ever, I hope you are wrong as a mother****er!!!!

12-30-2007, 03:05 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-488231	** cdcox's OFFICIAL where are we drafting NOW thread WE DRAFT 4TH (25%) or 5 th (75%) PENDING THE OUTCOME OF TWO COIN FLIPS Details in thread. I'm starting the 80th billionth thread on this subject. I'll keep the thread starter up to date so that people can see what is happening without wading through multiple threads. If the Chiefs lose we will draft between the 3rd and 5th. To get the 3rd we need: A Chiefs loss AND An Oakland win AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING TWO {(A Denver Loss) -OR- ( a Coin Flip win) To get the 4th we need: A Chiefs loss AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING THREE OUTCOMES (An Oakland win) -OR- (A Denver Loss) -OR- (TWO Coin Flip wins) To get the 5th we need: A Chiefs loss If the Chiefs win we will draft between the 6th and 8th. To get the 6th we need: KC to win (blah) Oakland to win AND Baltimore to win AND Minnesota to win AND Indy to win To get the 7th we need: KC to win (blah) AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING 2: (Wins by Baltimore and Indy) -OR- Oakland win Otherwise a KC win causes us to draft 8th** Last edited by cdcox; 12-30-2007 at 06:35 PM..
Posts: 46,032

12-31-2007, 01:03 AM	#213
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-488231	Flopnuts, BadGuy and Bowser: Let me run trough it one more time. Miami gets the first 1-15 StL get the second. 3-13 Now Oakland, us and Atlanta are tied for the third with the same record (4-12) and the same SOS. We have to break the tie with Oakland first, since we are in the same divsion. Oakland must pick before us because they win the division tiebreaker (an 11 step procedure) based on KC having a stronger record against common opponents. Therefore KC cannot pick before Oakland. Now who should pick first between Oakland and Atlanta. Here the tiebreaker is a coin flip since Atlanta and Oakland are not in the same conference or the same division. If Atlanta wins the coin flip they will pick 3rd. Oakland will pick 4th because the have to pick before KC. And we will pick 5th. If Oakland wins the coin flip agains Atlanta, they will pick 3rd. Who picks 4th and 5th? Again we would need a coin flip between KC and Atlanta to determine this.
Posts: 46,032

12-31-2007, 01:05 AM	#214
OnTheWarpath15 MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $2151115	CD, I answered my own question from my PM earlier in this thread. Disregard. Thanks for doing this, BTW.
Posts: 60,750

12-31-2007, 01:10 AM	#218
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-488231	If what the NFL network is reporting is holds up, I got it right and beat the NFL network by 6 hours. Atlanta Journal Constitution - wrong Lenny - wrong Mitch - wrong KC Metro Sports - wrong
Posts: 46,032

12-31-2007, 01:22 AM	#223
Mr. Flopnuts FINALLY! The wait is over. Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The Future Is Now!!! Casino cash: $19947565	Ok. ESPN Sportscenter is now reporting that 3 4 and 5 will be decided by tiebreakers tomorrow between Atl. Oak. and KC. ESPN is reporting that KC could still be picking 3rd, and Oak could be picking 5th.
Posts: 56,649