Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 156

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

suzzer99 · 07-27-2015, 11:14 AM

Not defend Omar and Rios, but aren't they trending upward very strongly lately? I mean if you're going to insist that opening day is the only place we should measure from - that seems kind of arbitrary.

**Anyong Bluth** · 07-27-2015, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR

Baseball n00b question:

Why did the Athletics tank after making their Lester last year? Something to do with clubhouse chemistry? Are the Royals in a similar dangerous position of losing that if we **** around too much with roster additions?

Yes, if one of the guys we traded for comes in and stabs Salvy, it could affect the clubhouse, team morale, and chemistry.

Note, I stress the could part of it.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR

Baseball n00b question:

Why did the Athletics tank after making their Lester last year? Something to do with clubhouse chemistry? Are the Royals in a similar dangerous position of losing that if we **** around too much with roster additions?

Beane has been so good at finding Brandon Moss' and Steven Vogt's he got a bit cocky, I think. He's really aggressive with batting splits. For instance, Moose and Hos would basically never start against lefties in the A's organization. Donaldson had monster splits against LHP and Moss had monster splits against RHP. Donaldson is also a great defender. That was a pretty stupid trade, but I think Beane thought he could get 80% out of Lawrie while gaining years of control (Lawrie was a big time prospect a few years back). This was a team that platoon'd Moss and Chris Carter one year because, combined, they make an all-star player. The problem is, rosters are only 25 players deep. So you can't platoon every freaking position.

The A's have also been pretty unlucky this year. They aren't a bad squad. I respect Beane's approach and think he's the most innovative mind in baseball ... but it's not always going to work. You can't always just find shit on the scrap heap and go from there. He's kind of like Bill Belichick in that regard, though. I'd hate being an A's fan because every year it seems like they strut out 15 new guys on their 25 man roster.

duncan_idaho · 07-27-2015, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR

Baseball n00b question:

Why did the Athletics tank after making their Lester last year? Something to do with clubhouse chemistry? Are the Royals in a similar dangerous position of losing that if we **** around too much with roster additions?

The A's tanked because:
1) their offense had overachieved a bit to that point
2) they traded a middle of the order bat
3) moss got hurt and slumped in the second half
4) Donaldson was not as good, either

Basically, they had three legit middle order hitters early, and 1.5 late. The offense collapsed a bit as a result.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9

They gave up their best hitter for him.

Cespedes wasn't even close to their best hitter at the time of that trade. He might have been their 5th best hitter. Maybe 4th. After Moss totally fell of the map due to his hip, he probably would have ended the year as their 3rd best hitter.

Cespedes is basically a slightly better Salvador Perez at the plate. Never walks. Bomb or bust. Swings at everything.

ChiefsCountry · 07-27-2015, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

The A's tanked because:
1) their offense had overachieved a bit to that point
2) they traded a middle of the order bat
3) moss got hurt and slumped in the second half
4) Donaldson was not as good, either

Basically, they had three legit middle order hitters early, and 1.5 late. The offense collapsed a bit as a result.

5) All time fluky Wild Card Game that they had in the bag.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Not defend Omar and Rios, but aren't they trending upward very strongly lately? I mean if you're going to insist that opening day is the only place we should measure from - that seems kind of arbitrary.

I'm done being mad at Omar. He's a guy we need to upgrade offensively, but if he's our #9 hitter, who really cares? It's not the end of the world and his defense is above average.

Rios is a .700+ OPS guy. Maybe more. He no longer needs to be replaced. But come playoff time, we should use Dyson as his late inning defensive replacement and if he is slumping, probably use him as a Dyson's left-handed platoon.

Molitoth · 07-27-2015, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I'm done being mad at Omar. He's a guy we need to upgrade offensively, but if he's our #9 hitter, who really cares? It's not the end of the world and his defense is above average.

Rios is a .700+ OPS guy. Maybe more. He no longer needs to be replaced. But come playoff time, we should use Dyson as his late inning defensive replacement and if he is slumping, probably use him as a Dyson's left-handed platoon.

But, but some people on CP tell me Escobar should be hitting 9.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:34 AM

Esky should be hitting 9th when Gordon returns. There is absolutely no reason we should have a guy with a .680 OPS leading off in front of 4 guys with .OPS all over .800 while Gordon is hitting 6th ... you know, right in front of 3 guys with .OPS all below .700. It's dumb.

You lead Gordon off, he gets on base 39% of the time .. is a tremendous base runner ... and then we have Moose, Cain and Hosmer behind him to drive him in.

It's just simple math.

And then you put Esky in the 9 hole because he has an OPS of .680 ... meaning he gets on base a hell of a lot more than Infante ... meaning the 2nd time through Gordon has a better shot of hitting with someone on base.

It's just common sense.

Sure-Oz · 07-27-2015, 11:44 AM

Royals interest in Prado is 'minimal' from Joe Frisaro

Prison Bitch · 07-27-2015, 11:46 AM

Omar isn't the 9 hitter just because he bats there. He's our 6 hitter by PA. Remember: when Omar comes to the plate, he has the same chance of succeeding that Gordon does. It doesn't matter when it happens.

penbrook · 07-27-2015, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

Royals interest in Prado is 'minimal' from Joe Frisaro

Well duh Royals are going all in for Zobrist

**Anyong Bluth** · 07-27-2015, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Trying to predict three years out is an exercise in futility. Remember that Sal Perez wasn't even a highly touted prospect, so shit surprises.

I'll pass on the shit surprise.
I'm fine with just water.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Omar isn't the 9 hitter just because he bats there. He's our 6 hitter by PA. Remember: when Omar comes to the plate, he has the same chance of succeeding that Gordon does. It doesn't matter when it happens.

what in the **** are you talking about?

Guthrie is our #2 because of IP and Infante is our #6 because of PA

you can't be this ****ing stupid, can you?

cmh6476 · 07-27-2015, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Omar isn't the 9 hitter just because he bats there. He's our 6 hitter by PA. Remember: when Omar comes to the plate, he has the same chance of succeeding that Gordon does. It doesn't matter when it happens.

I bet Infante would have a better chance than Gordon stepping to the plate today.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1969692	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 22,386

07-27-2015, 11:14 AM	#2326
suzzer99 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: L.A. Casino cash: $-645716	Not defend Omar and Rios, but aren't they trending upward very strongly lately? I mean if you're going to insist that opening day is the only place we should measure from - that seems kind of arbitrary.
Posts: 28,357

07-27-2015, 11:34 AM	#2334
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	Esky should be hitting 9th when Gordon returns. There is absolutely no reason we should have a guy with a .680 OPS leading off in front of 4 guys with .OPS all over .800 while Gordon is hitting 6th ... you know, right in front of 3 guys with .OPS all below .700. It's dumb. You lead Gordon off, he gets on base 39% of the time .. is a tremendous base runner ... and then we have Moose, Cain and Hosmer behind him to drive him in. It's just simple math. And then you put Esky in the 9 hole because he has an OPS of .680 ... meaning he gets on base a hell of a lot more than Infante ... meaning the 2nd time through Gordon has a better shot of hitting with someone on base. It's just common sense.
Posts: 56,356

07-27-2015, 11:46 AM	#2336
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Omar isn't the 9 hitter just because he bats there. He's our 6 hitter by PA. Remember: when Omar comes to the plate, he has the same chance of succeeding that Gordon does. It doesn't matter when it happens.
Posts: 87,025