***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance

• Made the postseason 10 times in the last 14 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

[O.city]

I don't know dj. I thought the holes were large. Maybe I'm seeing what I wanna see, but some work with Mueller and gulp, Mabry could help I guess. I don't know that grichuk has the same plane as reynolds so I th8nk he a little quicker to balls.

However, as dj has mentioned, the guys that get to this level and change, are about as big as....well I dunno. Very small.

I do think our field defense is something that can be learned, but routes to balls is more innate to me. I dunno that it's a learn able skill.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I get to listen to the Cardinals broadcast in only about 20% of the games I watch per year. So I doubt that. I can see. He has better speed than Jay.

No disagreement there - Jay's speed is slightly below average for a CFer, which speaks directly to my point regarding their respective routes. Jay's defensive metrics, speaking purely objectively, paint him as an above average defensive CFer. Well if his speed's below average and his range is slightly above, doesn't that suggest that he's actually taking very good routes on the ball?

Like I said, Grichuk's faster, Jay's more direct. On balance, they cover about the same amount of ground but in different parts of the field. Personally, I believe Jay's ability to get back on balls is more valuable than Grichuk's ability to move up on them due to the run value of XBHs, but Grichuk's arm now comes into play as well. All told, Grichuk might be a slightly better defensive CFer, but over 162 games I don't think you'll see a significant impact either way.

I agree. And it still makes him better than Jay.

I believe I was fairly straightforward in that I believe Grichuk to be a better player on balance than Jay.

So Bourjas gets a Dal Maxwell exception?

In CF? Yeah, that's an exception I'm willing to grant. C, SS and CF are positions where I'll weight defense heavily, especially if you're looking at truly exemplary defense.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don't know dj. I thought the holes were large. Maybe I'm seeing what I wanna see, but some work with Mueller and gulp, Mabry could help I guess. I don't know that grichuk has the same plane as reynolds so I th8nk he a little quicker to balls.

However, as dj has mentioned, the guys that get to this level and change, are about as big as....well I dunno. Very small.

I do think our field defense is something that can be learned, but routes to balls is more innate to me. I dunno that it's a learn able skill.

Where Grichuk has surprised me is that he doesn't have the hole up in his zone that many RH power hitters have. He's a lot harder to get inside or over the top of than I thought he'd be. But man, anything below his knees is just eating him alive right now. Sooner or later pitchers are going to risk walking him ahead of giving him anything above his kneecaps. He's been a little more selective of late so perhaps he'll have an answer to that. That's why I'm not advocating burying the guy. 4 starts/week is 120 starts/season over a full season. in the 500 AB range. That's still quite a bit of PT.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Where Grichuk has surprised me is that he doesn't have the hole up in his zone that many RH power hitters have. He's a lot harder to get inside or over the top of than I thought he'd be. But man, anything below his knees is just eating him alive right now. Sooner or later pitchers are going to risk walking him ahead of giving him anything above his kneecaps. He's been a little more selective of late so perhaps he'll have an answer to that. That's why I'm not advocating burying the guy. 4 starts/week is 120 starts/season over a full season. in the 500 AB range. That's still quite a bit of PT.

He small sample sized Chris sale and hit two low balls well last night.

Hell I dunno man. Maybe he's just meant to be at the big league level.

It's rare, but if he could just walk a little more, I'd put him in center everyday

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If Heyward continues to open up his front half on inside pitches while maintaining his plate coverage on the outer third, there's no reason to platoon him. His approach against lefties has actually been pretty sound most of the season because lefties struggle to get inside on him.

Personally, I think Grichuk's defense is a little overrated but he's a sound defensive player in CF. He's probably about Jay's equal in terms of range (Jay really does well getting back on balls unless they're straight at him), but obviously has a far stronger arm. Offensively his power just can't be ignored.

There's no question that Jay has no business starting again once Holliday returns. With Wong's ability to handle the leadoff role admirably (and the backup plan of putting Carpenter there), Jay's OBP fit at the top of the order, even if he were still a plus player in that regard, is no longer as important. The book is closed on Grichuk vs. Jay and Grichuk wins in a walk.

I'm still not willing to bury Bourjos, however. Bourjos just brings so much to the team defense as a whole and his speed on the bases makes things happen. We've won 2 games in extras this season on weak choppers that should've been DP balls where he simply forced an error by hauling ass home. Now the counter to that would be that perhaps his erratic bat makes him best suited for situational deployment; pinch running and the like. Personally I don't think he's received enough ABs to give up on him being a neutral offensive weapon if starting.

At this point I'd probably look to get both Bourjos and Grichuk roughly 4 starts/wk with Heyward/Holliday getting 5 each. If you figure on 6 games/wk on average, that gives you 18 starts to rotate among the 4 players, 4, 4, 5, 5, works out perfectly. That would only be about 135 starts on a season for Heyward so I wouldn't go with a strict 5/wk for Heyward - he'd get 6 in a lot of weeks for me. I would think that 145 starts is a good number for him over a full season. Heyward's starts would probably come at Bourjos's expense as I value his D/Speed off the bench quite a bit so he'd be pretty handy even when he's not starting.

It's time to bury Jay, though. He just serves no purpose here.

I agree. I probably wasn't clear w/ my opinion WRT Heyward. I meant spell as in "occasionally replace" and not setting up a clear platoon.

[O.city]

So, what do we do with Heyward if this "trend" continues?

[O.city]

http://m.stltoday.com/sports/columns...ile_touch=true

So anytime grichuk k's and your pissed, just remember, we traded Salas for him.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

We beware of fools gold and get someone else to knock in 50 runs if he wants big money.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

http://m.stltoday.com/sports/columns...ile_touch=true

So anytime grichuk k's and your pissed, just remember, we traded Salas for him.

I guess Bernie and whoever he talked to in the Cardinals like Grichuk more than DJ and Hamas.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

He definitely has value to the squad

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

We beware of fools gold and get someone else to knock in 50 runs if he wants big money.

Batting average and RBI's.

I suppose you wanna go for the trifecta and pronounce your love for Wacha's 9 wins?

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by O.city

Batting average and RBI's.

I suppose you wanna go for the trifecta and pronounce your love for Wacha's 9 wins?

Yeah it's totally meaningless he doesn't get on base or produce runs Colon for Upton WAR logic!!

[BigRedChief]

Lackey is just pissed off on game day. Perpetually perturbed is what Costas called it?

[BigRedChief]

Stats from Bernies column that O. city posted earlier. I have no idea how to interpet these stats, But to the layman these look damn good. How are all these stats misleading?
So with the postseason in there, Grichuk had 152 plate appearances last season. So far this season, he has 157 PA. So it's pretty much the same, which helps to put the improvement in perspective.
In 2014: a .228 average, .258 OPB, and .386 slugging pct.
In 2015: a .284 average, .318 OBP, and .574 slugging pct.

Including the '14 postseason Grichuk had five homers mixed into his 12 extra-base hits. This year he already has seven homers as part of his 24 extra-base hits.

Isolated Power? That would be .159 last season and a big .291 this year.
There's wRC+, the sabermetric snapshot. The higher the number, the better. Grichuk had a 90 wRC+ last season (yuck), but is way up to 142 this year so far.

Wins Above Replacement: 0.6 last season; already 2.0 this year. Here we are on July 1st, and Grichuk already is a two-win player. He's one of only 14 MLB outfielders to have 2.0 WAR at this stage.

The great Bill James came up with a catch-all stat many years ago that he named RC/27. And it's quite simple to understand.

Yes, even with all of the swings and misses and Ks.
His future salaries won't be based on batting average.
Grichuk will get paid because of line drives, power, fly balls that carry and home runs that travel a great distance. Grichuk's contact rate isn't the best, but when he connects and keeps the ball off the ground _ just brace for the damage.

Grichuk has an .800 slugging pct. on fly balls, and a 1.667 SLG on line drives. Grichuk's hard-contact rate (41.2 pct.) is the ninth-highest rate in the majors this season. (Minimum 150 plate appearances.)

The Cardinals have played the last 18 games without Holliday.
Grichuk has started 17 of the 18, so that makes him a full-time starter.


Take the small sample into account, but in 70 plate appearances since June 9, Grichuk has batted .313 with a .357 OBP and .688 slugging percentage. He's had 20 hits; 11 for extra bases. Three doubles, three triples and five homers.

Among MLB hitters that have a minimum of 150 plate appearances this season, Grichuk ranks eighth with a .574 slugging percentage. That's higher than many luminaries including Anthony Rizzo, Prince Fielder, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman and Joc Pederson.

As for Isolated Power (ISO), only five MLB hitters with at least 150 plate appearances have topped Grichuk's .291 ISO: Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, Todd Frazier and Albert Pujols.

[ChiefsCountry]

A White Sox fan runs onto the field at Busch Stadium. Gets escorted out. pic.twitter.com/n8qPLg2GoV

— Chuck Garfien (@ChuckGarfien) July 2, 2015