Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 160

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 02:21 PM

Hilariously, when you have a guy like Dyson it means the 8th hitter is the least valuable hitter in your lineup. If Infante is our biggest issue, then, lol, I think we're ok.

WhawhaWhat · 07-27-2015, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

I kind of want Guthrie to stay in the rotation, as long as it means we use Chris Young later in the year, in other situations and games that are meaningful.

(on second thought - edited)

Over the last 2 months, Chris Young and Jeremy Guthrie have both given up 28 ERs. Chris Young has 5 fewer IP, but has given up 11 HRs to Guthries 5. 18 BBs to Guthries 15 and 31 Ks to Guthries 37.

KChiefs1 · 07-27-2015, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Johnny Cueto will make his first start as a Royal on Friday in Toronto.
— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) July 27, 2015

Projecting starts with 5 man rotation.

Not sure how they will handle off days on August 3rd, August 17th, August 31st, September 10th, September 21st

July 31 - at Toronto
August 6 - at Detroit
August 11 - Detroit
August 16 - LA
August 22 - at Boston
August 27 - Baltimore
September 2 - Detroit
September 7 - Minnesota
September 12 - at Baltimore
September 17 - at Cleveland
September 23 - Seattle
September 28 - at Cubs
October 3 - at Minnesota

Prison Bitch · 07-27-2015, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

He's batting 8th tonight. Very confusing.

Yes, it is. He's a 9 hitter, or a 6, or an 8, or last year a 2. Of course yesterday the highest leverage AB of the game happened when he came up in the 1st. Sacks packed 2 outs, do or die. So mathematically he was so important he was our 3 hitter

C3HIEF3S · 07-27-2015, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Projecting starts with 5 man rotation.

Not sure how they will handle off days on August 3rd, August 17th, August 31st, September 10th, September 21st

July 31 - at Toronto
August 6 - at Detroit
August 11 - Detroit
August 16 - LA
August 22 - at Boston
August 27 - Baltimore
September 2 - Detroit
September 7 - Minnesota
September 12 - at Baltimore
September 17 - at Cleveland
September 23 - Seattle
September 28 - at Cubs
October 3 - at Minnesota

I think there's going to be some movement with the off-day coming up in a week. Goldberg said they haven't determined what they're going to do at that point.

cosmo20002 · 07-27-2015, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Over the last 2 months, Chris Young and Jeremy Guthrie have both given up 28 ERs. Chris Young has 5 fewer IP, but has given up 11 HRs to Guthries 5. 18 BBs to Guthries 15 and 31 Ks to Guthries 37.

And one of Guthrie's HRs was when Gordon couldn't be bothered to roll over to get the ball after breaking his groin.

Raiderhater · 07-27-2015, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

Several not 30

It was just too easy of a lay up to pass on.

mr. tegu · 07-27-2015, 02:31 PM

Young got us through some rough times and did it remarkably well. One of the worries from other teams and the main reason he didn't sign as a starter anywhere was him holding up for a whole season as a starter. That seems to be playing out lately. He will still be a valuable bullpen guy the rest of the way though.

cosmo20002 · 07-27-2015, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Yes, it is. He's a 9 hitter, or a 6, or an 8, or last year a 2. Of course yesterday the highest leverage AB of the game happened when he came up in the 1st. Sacks packed 2 outs, do or die. So mathematically he was so important he was our 3 hitter

But mostly 9. And when the lineup is at full strength without anyone being rested or injured, he's 9.

Sure-Oz · 07-27-2015, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiderhader

It was just too easy of a lay up to pass on.

Lol agreed

KChiefs1 · 07-27-2015, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

I think there's going to be some movement with the off-day coming up in a week. Goldberg said they haven't determined what they're going to do at that point.

I have tickets for August 15th & September 26th so I'll be interested to see how it works out too.

BWillie · 07-27-2015, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Over the last 2 months, Chris Young and Jeremy Guthrie have both given up 28 ERs. Chris Young has 5 fewer IP, but has given up 11 HRs to Guthries 5. 18 BBs to Guthries 15 and 31 Ks to Guthries 37.

Right. And over the course of the year Jeremy Guthrie has a 5.2+ ERA to Chris Young's 3.3. Chris Young is also 25th ALL TIME in active pitchers in ERA. Carry on.

BWillie · 07-27-2015, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Young got us through some rough times and did it remarkably well. One of the worries from other teams and the main reason he didn't sign as a starter anywhere was him holding up for a whole season as a starter. That seems to be playing out lately. He will still be a valuable bullpen guy the rest of the way though.

It is just ASSUMED that Chris Young is "wearing down" because he hasn't been as effective lately and didn't do AS WELL at some parts of the 2nd half last year for the Mariners. Theres no clear evidence that this isn't just happenstance, though.

Prison Bitch · 07-27-2015, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

But mostly 9. And when the lineup is at full strength without anyone being rested or injured, he's 9.

Unfortunately, injuries do happen. And when we look at the final team stats, he will have had a bigger impact than Alex. Regardless if we call him a 6 or a 9.

Lex Luthor · 07-27-2015, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

I used to be more of a supporter for the run differential stat. But, I think in baseball it can be flawed.

I agree, it's a terribly flawed statistic.

Just look at the Toronto Blue Jays this year. They have a run differential of +95, by far the best in the American League

Their record is 50 wins and 50 losses. So much for run differential being a reliable indicator of how good a team is.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1969692	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 22,386

07-27-2015, 02:21 PM	#2386
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	Hilariously, when you have a guy like Dyson it means the 8th hitter is the least valuable hitter in your lineup. If Infante is our biggest issue, then, lol, I think we're ok.
Posts: 56,356

07-27-2015, 02:31 PM	#2393
mr. tegu Forever Royal Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $-1738700	Young got us through some rough times and did it remarkably well. One of the worries from other teams and the main reason he didn't sign as a starter anywhere was him holding up for a whole season as a starter. That seems to be playing out lately. He will still be a valuable bullpen guy the rest of the way though.
Posts: 26,500