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Old 01-28-2024, 08:32 PM  
TLO TLO is offline
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Let's talk about the 49ers (Super Bowl Edition)
Discuss.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:15 AM   #2386
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Spread continues to baffle me. Who is putting all this money on SF, and what is their rationale?

If the Chiefs do win, I really wanna hear SF bettors explain away how they missed the mark on this one. Film heads are all over Kansas City. Doesn't mean everything, but that usually coincides with betting spreads.
Film vs numbers. The numbers are in favor of the team that beat up on shit teams all season. Film people know that styles make fights and one team peaked two months ago and the other is red hot right now.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:24 AM   #2387
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Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger View Post
Chris Simms, who is a well known bestie of Kyle Shanahan and picked the Niners to beat KC in the superbowl before the season started, just picked KC to win. He picked against us against Buffalo and the Ravens so I think he might be hoping for a reverse jinx or something. But he said he looks at both teams and the tape, and he had to be honest about what he was seeing. He was talking like KC are levels above the niners!!...

It's getting a little crazy how many people are picking us to win tbh but at least the bookies still have us as underdogs to balance things out

Edit: Dan Orlovsky's interview with Dan Patrick is also worth watching. He's backing kc BIG in this game.
I heard the bookies need an imbalance in Chiefs money on the actual game because the Niners dominated the Superbowl winner bets in December and Jan when the Chiefs fell off fast as one of the favorites.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:26 AM   #2388
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
Spread continues to baffle me. Who is putting all this money on SF, and what is their rationale?

If the Chiefs do win, I really wanna hear SF bettors explain away how they missed the mark on this one. Film heads are all over Kansas City. Doesn't mean everything, but that usually coincides with betting spreads.
per my earlier post, I guess SF to win the Superbowl had a huge imbalance over the other teams, and money on the Chiefs makes that more palatable for Vegas.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:27 AM   #2389
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You guys want to hear a stat that's absolutely bonkers?

Kyle Shannahan offenses in the 4th quarter of the 2 SB's has been outscored 46-0 in the 4th quarter. Yes you read that right. Rat Jr's offense has a big egg in two 4th quarters of the SB.

Also of note, Spags defense points allowed in the 4th quarter of the playoffs against the 1st, 4th and 6th ranked offenses in the 4th quarter? 3 points.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:38 AM   #2390
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One thing to remember about spreads in championship games is that the futures bets prior to and during the season matter. Most people realize that Vegas typically wants half the money on each side of the spread but in championships that isn’t always the case.

In this example it’s possible there is way more futures money on the 49ers so keeping the Chiefs underdogs is Vegas trying to hedge by getting money on the Chiefs.

Also factored in is the team markets and the dollars and number of bets coming in on each team. So we have a general idea of the side the public is on, but not really the actual dollars on each side from new bets but also existing futures. Also being the most bet game there is, typical analysis of the spread is actually really difficult.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:39 AM   #2391
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
Spread continues to baffle me. Who is putting all this money on SF, and what is their rationale?

If the Chiefs do win, I really wanna hear SF bettors explain away how they missed the mark on this one. Film heads are all over Kansas City. Doesn't mean everything, but that usually coincides with betting spreads.
The big money is on SF, but the majority of bets are for KC.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:40 AM   #2392
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yeah if you're going to pick the 49ers, it's going to look like the raiders game. Defense gets early and consistent pressure on Mahomes and reduces Kelce's effectiveness. Picking a final score of 49ers win 20-14, like I can buy that. 31-17 is just like "I haven't watched a Chiefs game all season" bad
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:49 AM   #2393
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:57 AM   #2394
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Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief View Post
I heard the bookies need an imbalance in Chiefs money on the actual game because the Niners dominated the Superbowl winner bets in December and Jan when the Chiefs fell off fast as one of the favorites.
That makes all the sense in the world. So they are hedging essentially.
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Old 02-09-2024, 10:00 AM   #2395
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It wouldn't make sense for the Niners to try to throw the ball in this game. Purdy probably only gets 10 throws total. I see them running CMC to death.
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Old 02-09-2024, 10:35 AM   #2396
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You guys want to hear a stat that's absolutely bonkers?

Kyle Shannahan offenses in the 4th quarter of the 2 SB's has been outscored 46-0 in the 4th quarter. Yes you read that right. Rat Jr's offense has a big egg in two 4th quarters of the SB.

Also of note, Spags defense points allowed in the 4th quarter of the playoffs against the 1st, 4th and 6th ranked offenses in the 4th quarter? 3 points.
On the bright side, you can't get outscored by that much unless your defense absolutely chokes. So their offenses shouldn't feel too badly.
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Old 02-09-2024, 10:45 AM   #2397
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This just looks like a team built to beat this 49ers squad.

Physical CBs, speed across the defense, a varied pass rush, power running game, elite pass-catching TE.

I mean I just don't think I care what DVOA says. This team seems purpose built to be a problem for the 49ers.
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Old 02-09-2024, 10:47 AM   #2398
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I really don't like feeling this overconfident, but on paper I think we match up great against these guys.

It's all gonna come down to what happens once the game actually starts.
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Old 02-09-2024, 10:49 AM   #2399
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The Chiefs defense is going to be so hard for Purdy bc they're good at tackling. Their scheme relies having on running the ball well and getting YAC. That's why we killed Miami. They tried the same system but we stuffed running/cut back lanes and tackled well limiting any YAC.

They're gonna force Brock to win with his arm and hit those tight window throws. They're betting he won't be able to do it.
I guess I didn't realize how Justin Reid makes a lot of plays in the running game.
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Old 02-09-2024, 10:51 AM   #2400
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I really don't like feeling this overconfident, but on paper I think we match up great against these guys.

It's all gonna come down to what happens once the game actually starts.
Just glad the players are focused and not listening to all outside positive noise. I honestly think the Ravens listened to all of it and how they were gonna dominate KC and it worked against them.
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