*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by alnorth

For the sake of argument I'm even willing to forget about the next two years, but people are acting like we have 4 Danny Duffy's and we can upgrade one of them. We don't.

If we trade Danny for Cueto, then how do we win game 3 or 6? We need to ADD someone, not REPLACE Duffy.

Danny Duffy is suddenly our game 3 starter? Based off of what evidence?

Danny Duffy pitched in 1 postseason game last year. Danny Duffy has shown me zero evidence he's currently one of our postseason starters.

And you really want to trot Mr. Headcase out there in the postseason even if he is clicking? Boy, can't wait to see how that turns out.

The fact of the matter is ... IMO, with trading Duffy and Finnegan, you'd be trading your #5 postseason pitcher (Duffy) and an easily replaceable 5th inning or long reliever type (in case you need a bridge to MHDH) for THE BEST ****ING PITCHER WE'VE SEEN IN A LONG TIME (the only comparison being Greinke in 2009).

Try and think back for a second.

WE ARE POTENTIALLY TRADING FOR 2009 ZACK GREINKE, AND SOME OF YOU WON'T TRADE DANNY DUFFY AND BRANDON FINNEGAN TO ACQUIRE THIS TO BOLSTER A TEAM WHO HAS 1 ****ING WEAKNESS RIGHT NOW (starting pitching).

I mean.

OMG

[tk13]

For the record, I'm not saying Cueto will solve all our problems. There's a legitimate argument against him because he had an all-time playoff meltdown in his last playoff game.

But I do think you generally need someone pitching like an ace to win. You need someone who can go toe-to-toe with another ace pitcher and give you 6 or 7 shutout innings. You guys are looking way too hard and probabilities and numbers and completely overthinking it. Even the greatest all-star offenses have been shut down when they ran into a buzzsaw like Randy Johnson, or Beckett, or Bumgarner. I've yet to see anyone give a solid example of a team that won it all with a bunch of #4-5 starters. Meanwhile you can run off 10 or 12 champs that had a guy pitching at an elite level.

That's why I didn't hate the Shields trade. You need a true #1 you can hand the ball to if you're going to win. It's the only constant. Teams with struggling offenses have succeeded, teams with all star offenses have failed. But most champions have a pitcher or two pitching at an All-Star level.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

What are you talking about?

Would Danny Duffy even make our postseason rotation?

Yes, he would. I'm saying that because I'm throwing out May, and if you do that, his stats put him at about #2 right now.

I also concede that its fine to call BS on throwing out May, because its usually not a good idea to throw out bad starts in an argument because then the discussion can devolve and everyone can make every pitcher look good, but he got rocked three times, said his arm hurt, and was shut down for a month. After that, he looked good, and he had a good April, his stats are ugly because of May. Without that month, his ERA is close to 3.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Danny Duffy is suddenly our game 3 starter? Based off of what evidence?

His season, minus May. I ignored the rest of your hysteria because we're not on the same page so we have a misunderstanding, you are probably looking at his entire season.

If you don't want to remove May, then we're at an impasse because his full 2015 season is bad.

[Hootie]

I'm going to hypothetically add Johnny Cueto to our team and take away Duffy and Finnegan.

We get the #1 seed and play Houston in round 1.

Our postseason pitchers look like this:

Game 1: Cueto
Game 2: Volquez
Game 3: Ventura
Game 4: Vargas/Young/Guthrie/Medlen
Game 5: Cueto

Bullpen: Holland, Davis, Herrera, Madson, Medlen, (Zimmer or Manaea), (Morales or starter)

I'm assuming we have 11 pitchers on our postseason roster.

OR

Game 1: Volquez
Game 2: Ventura
Game 3: Duffy (LOL)
Game 4: Vargas/Young/Guthrie/Medlen
Game 5: Volquez

Bullpen: Holland, Davis, Herrera, Madson, Medlen, (Finnegan, Zimmer, or Manaea), (Morales or starter)

Are you guys rat ****ing me right now? Do you really not see what Cueto adds to this team?

It's like adding an ace and losing NOTHING for a playoff run. NOTHING. Trading Duffy and acquiring Cueto is a win/win because GUTHRIE/VARGAS/YOUNG/MEDLEN are all either more effective than Danny Duffy, or just as effective.

All Danny Duffy has proven to me his entire career is he has a nasty ****ing fastball that he can't locate, and a decent secondary pitch that he can't locate, either.

[Hootie]

If we go into the postseason with our starters looking like this:

1) Ventura
2) Duffy
3) Volquez
4) Guthrie/Vargas/Young

well, at least we'll always remember 2014

[Hootie]

Let me just say it one more time :

Cueto is basically a 2009 Zack Greinke.

Anybody remember 2009 Zack Greinke?

Does anyone think we lose to SFG last year if we had 2009 Zack Greinke anchoring our rotation?

[tk13]

Well to be fair, I do think it makes the rotation stronger this year if we traded someone other than Duffy, like a package including Manaea or Zimmer. But then you're giving up a potential starter you have 6 years control over.

Cueto/Volquez/Ventura/Duffy could work out nicely, certainly tons of potential there. I'd agree with al. But you at that point you have made life more difficult long term, considering you only have Duffy two more years and now have one less guy to replace him.

[alnorth]

Both of your scenarios are bad, and I reject them both. I don't like standing pat, and I don't like replacing Duffy. I do not accept that its impossible to acquire Cueto or someone similar without dealing Duffy. If they want Mondesi and/or one of our other coveted prospects, and there's no other way, so be it.

[Hootie]

I don't think you REALLY need a lefty in your postseason rotation, and I see no issue with going something like :

Cueto
Volquez
Ventura
Medlen

[duncan_idaho]

If the Royals traded for Cueto at the expense of Duffy, Yordano Ventura replaces Danny as the Game 3 starter. Yes, I think that's an upgrade. Yes, I feel better about your chances to win Game 3 in a series with Ventura.

You improve the first guy you're throwing in a series (Cueto vs. Volquez)
You improve the second guy you're throwing in a series (Volquez vs. Ventura)
And improve the third guy you're throwing in a series.

It's all upside.

If the Royals stand pat, they might enter the 2015 postseason with a rotation that is downgraded from last year. Yes, the bullpen can cover innings, but you also aren't as likely to sweep the ALDS and ALCS, which increases their burden if you don't have some innings-chugging starters.

It's also possible Ventura and Duffy put it together and this isn't an issue. Time will tell.

[tk13]

The flip side to this is you only lose two years of Duffy. Next year we'll have Ventura, Volquez, Vargas and Medlen guaranteed for the rotation, Guthrie's option if we want to pick it up, with Lamb, Manaea and Zimmer knocking on the door.

It just depends on how much you value Duffy and how likely you think he'll re-sign if he becomes the pitcher we hope he does. The easiest answer is Duffy and Ventura have a strong second half and this isn't a problem. You usually have to develop a starter or two because they're so expensive.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If the Royals traded for Cueto at the expense of Duffy, Yordano Ventura replaces Danny as the Game 3 starter. Yes, I think that's an upgrade. Yes, I feel better about your chances to win Game 3 in a series with Ventura.

You improve the first guy you're throwing in a series (Cueto vs. Volquez)
You improve the second guy you're throwing in a series (Volquez vs. Ventura)
And improve the third guy you're throwing in a series.

It's all upside.

If the Royals stand pat, they might enter the 2015 postseason with a rotation that is downgraded from last year. Yes, the bullpen can cover innings, but you also aren't as likely to sweep the ALDS and ALCS, which increases their burden if you don't have some innings-chugging starters.

It's also possible Ventura and Duffy put it together and this isn't an issue. Time will tell.

What happened to Ventura's fastball? I don't think its a given that Ventura is better than Duffy.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Both of your scenarios are bad, and I reject them both. I don't like standing pat, and I don't like replacing Duffy. I do not accept that its impossible to acquire Cueto or someone similar without dealing Duffy. If they want Mondesi and/or one of our other coveted prospects, and there's no other way, so be it.

You'd trade Mondesi over Duffy? Jesus man

[alnorth]

If I can get Cueto for a painful package of prospects, I'd have to strongly consider doing it. Then we'd roll with

Cueto
Volquez
Duffy
whoever survives September