Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 173

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:44 PM

I am curious though, I'll research this tomorrow. Can't do it now

tk13 · 07-27-2015, 11:48 PM

Yeah hitting is important, but pitching dominates in the playoffs. Even those 2013 Red Sox... they were a very good offensive team, no doubt about it. They were more balanced. I think they only had two guys hit 20 HR during the season.

But in the playoffs, Lester went off. He went 4-1 and was lights out every start. Lackey was pretty effective too. The offense had a .609 team OPS in the ALCS, and a .621 team OPS in the World Series. The Cardinals scored 14 runs in 6 World Series games.

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah hitting is important, but pitching dominates in the playoffs. Even those 2013 Red Sox... they were a very good offensive team, no doubt about it. They were more balanced. I think they only had two guys hit 20 HR during the season.

But in the playoffs, Lester went off. He went 4-1 and was lights out every start. Lackey was pretty effective too. The offense had a .609 team OPS in the ALCS, and a .621 team OPS in the World Series. The Cardinals scored 14 runs in 6 World Series games.

Exactly. He's quoting regular season statistics. Well yeah. It's important to score runs during the season to get to October ... But more often than not, dominant pitching wins in October. It's pitching weather. And teams stop letting Chris Young's start games. And you get to your bullpen faster. And you don't have Yohan Pino eating innings.

Great pitching always beats great hitting. It doesn't always take a great pitcher to pitch great, either. And October baseball favors pitching anyways. Not prime hitting weather

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:55 PM

The Royals kind of gave everyone a blue print last year ... When the ball stops flying in October great pitching, defense and base running will do the trick. That started us 8-0 and then we ran into Bumgarner ... You know, a pitcher

Hootie · 07-27-2015, 11:57 PM

...putting the ball in play helps, too. Again, tulo is an upgrade but who knows if he stays healthy. His road splits are ok, but he doesn't have the Coors field fall back crutch as a slump buster. So we'll see.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-27-2015, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah hitting is important, but pitching dominates in the playoffs. Even those 2013 Red Sox... they were a very good offensive team, no doubt about it. They were more balanced. I think they only had two guys hit 20 HR during the season.

But in the playoffs, Lester went off. He went 4-1 and was lights out every start. Lackey was pretty effective too. The offense had a .609 team OPS in the ALCS, and a .621 team OPS in the World Series. The Cardinals scored 14 runs in 6 World Series games.

And those same Red Sox scored 67 runs in 16 postseason games, for an average of 4.2 compared to their regular season average of 5.2

And in those games they faced: Prime Verlander, Scherzer*2, Anibal Sanchez (in a career year), Wainwright*2, Wacha*2, Matt Moore (pre-injury) and David Price.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-28-2015, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

The Royals kind of gave everyone a blue print last year ... When the ball stops flying in October great pitching, defense and base running will do the trick. That started us 8-0 and then we ran into Bumgarner ... You know, a pitcher

Why do you think that one year is a blueprint, and why do you think what Bumgarner did is repeatable?

Should every team aspire to be like the 2004 Pistons?

Hootie · 07-28-2015, 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Why do you think that one year is a blueprint, and why do you think what Bumgarner did is repeatable?

Should every team aspire to be like the 2004 Pistons?

I'll look at the past 10 years tomorrow and admit if I'm wrong

BWillie · 07-28-2015, 12:04 AM

Balbino is out 4 to 6 months with knee surgery.

BWillie · 07-28-2015, 12:08 AM

I think Hootie actually made a good point. The playoffs are played in the Fall. Its less humid, colder and the ball doesn't fly as far. Advantage defense, disadvantage a team that relies on power. The bullpen comes in handy more then ever because that lends itself to closer and lower scoring games

tk13 · 07-28-2015, 12:11 AM

Yeah, but the Red Sox thumped the Rays pretty good in the first round.

If you look at the ALCS and WS, they scored 3.3 earned runs a game in the last two rounds. That's probably not bad considering the pitching they faced. But Lester and Lackey out pitched them too. That Tigers offense was loaded, probably better than Boston. Cabrera, Fielder, Martinez, Hunter, Peralta, even Infante had a very good offensive year.

Hootie · 07-28-2015, 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

I think Hootie actually made a good point. The playoffs are played in the Fall. Its less humid, colder and the ball doesn't fly as far. Advantage defense, disadvantage a team that relies on power. The bullpen comes in handy more then ever because that lends itself to closer and lower scoring games

Well I can guarantee you runs are down in the postseason, that's just common sense. But I'd bet out of the last 10 world series champions, 8 of them leaned heavily on their pitching staffs in October ... Regardless of what it was that got them to the postseason in the regular season

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-28-2015, 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah, but the Red Sox thumped the Rays pretty good in the first round.

If you look at the ALCS and WS, they scored 3.3 earned runs a game in the last two rounds. That's probably not bad considering the pitching they faced. But Lester and Lackey out pitched them too. That Tigers offense was loaded, probably better than Boston. Cabrera, Fielder, Martinez, Hunter, Peralta, even Infante had a very good offensive year.

Boston's offense was slightly better by wRC and #1 in baseball.

suzzer99 · 07-28-2015, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

The 1980 team should have won at least 105 games but they were bad in September.

The '85 team got swept in a 4-game series at home by a horrible Seattle team late in September. CP would've been ready to dismantle the team.

suzzer99 · 07-28-2015, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Boston's offense was slightly better by wRC and #1 in baseball.

Yep, and Tampa Bay want to Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. So hey there's always hope.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1979692	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 22,388

07-27-2015, 11:44 PM	#2581
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	I am curious though, I'll research this tomorrow. Can't do it now
Posts: 56,356

07-27-2015, 11:48 PM	#2582
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1747500	Yeah hitting is important, but pitching dominates in the playoffs. Even those 2013 Red Sox... they were a very good offensive team, no doubt about it. They were more balanced. I think they only had two guys hit 20 HR during the season. But in the playoffs, Lester went off. He went 4-1 and was lights out every start. Lackey was pretty effective too. The offense had a .609 team OPS in the ALCS, and a .621 team OPS in the World Series. The Cardinals scored 14 runs in 6 World Series games.
Posts: 56,651

07-27-2015, 11:55 PM	#2584
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	The Royals kind of gave everyone a blue print last year ... When the ball stops flying in October great pitching, defense and base running will do the trick. That started us 8-0 and then we ran into Bumgarner ... You know, a pitcher
Posts: 56,356

07-27-2015, 11:57 PM	#2585
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	...putting the ball in play helps, too. Again, tulo is an upgrade but who knows if he stays healthy. His road splits are ok, but he doesn't have the Coors field fall back crutch as a slump buster. So we'll see.
Posts: 56,356

07-28-2015, 12:04 AM	#2589
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1318759	Balbino is out 4 to 6 months with knee surgery.
Posts: 52,615

07-28-2015, 12:08 AM	#2590
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1318759	I think Hootie actually made a good point. The playoffs are played in the Fall. Its less humid, colder and the ball doesn't fly as far. Advantage defense, disadvantage a team that relies on power. The bullpen comes in handy more then ever because that lends itself to closer and lower scoring games
Posts: 52,615

07-28-2015, 12:11 AM	#2591
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1747500	Yeah, but the Red Sox thumped the Rays pretty good in the first round. If you look at the ALCS and WS, they scored 3.3 earned runs a game in the last two rounds. That's probably not bad considering the pitching they faced. But Lester and Lackey out pitched them too. That Tigers offense was loaded, probably better than Boston. Cabrera, Fielder, Martinez, Hunter, Peralta, even Infante had a very good offensive year.
Posts: 56,651