***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance

• Made the postseason 10 times in the last 14 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

[DJ's left nut]

So I'm just backing up and watching the middle innings (had a softball game). You wanna talk about Cardinaldevilmagic - the run that Heyward scored is a perfect example.

TERRIBLE baserunning by Heyward to not be at 3b on the sac fly by Molina. He should have definitely tagged because if that ball gets down he scores standing even from 2b. He should've held the bag, tagged on the catch and been to 3b.

Had he been at 3b, the grounder that Wong hits goes right to a drawn in Castro who looks Heyward back before gunning Wong down at 1b. Instead, with Heyward at 2b and a gunshy Lester on the mound, Castro has to play behind Heyward to keep him from walking all the way down the 2b line. Wong's grounder goes through the vacated hole and Heyward scores easily.

I'm sure Matheny motivated them to do that though.

No hit through 6, 2 runs scored off unearned runs. The starting pitching is doing it all for this team. The hitters have been taking half-assed, unfocused, undisciplined ABs all night but because Bryant threw a ball away and Heyward did a shitty job running the bases, they're up 2-0.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

In the last six games Grichuk is 0-19 with 9 Ks. OBP now comfortably below .300 again.

grichuk will be benched this weekend when Holliday comes back. Maybe leaving him in to see if he turns it around and make him more valuable as a trade piece in a package?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So I'm just backing up and watching the middle innings (had a softball game). You wanna talk about Cardinaldevilmagic - the run that Heyward scored is a perfect example.

TERRIBLE baserunning by Heyward to not be at 3b on the sac fly by Molina. He should have definitely tagged because if that ball gets down he scores standing even from 2b. He should've held the bag, tagged on the catch and been to 3b.

Had he been at 3b, the grounder that Wong hits goes right to a drawn in Castro who looks Heyward back before gunning Wong down at 1b. Instead, with Heyward at 2b and a gunshy Lester on the mound, Castro has to play behind Heyward to keep him from walking all the way down the 2b line. Wong's grounder goes through the vacated hole and Heyward scores easily.

I'm sure Matheny motivated them to do that though.

No hit through 6, 2 runs scored off unearned runs. The starting pitching is doing it all for this team. The hitters have been taking half-assed, unfocused, undisciplined ABs all night but because Bryant threw a ball away and Heyward did a shitty job running the bases, they're up 2-0.

Yadis sack fly was out 2.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

grichuk will be benched this weekend when Holliday comes back. Maybe leaving him in to see if he turns it around and make him more valuable as a trade piece in a package?

I don't think the league is going to see Grichuk as much more than a fringe player with some pop and a terrible understanding of the strike zone.

He's like a white Pedro Cerrano.

[O.city]

Our 1st base situation is so shitty, I'd look at bringing Craig back

[Jewish Rabbi]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yadis sack fly was out 2.

Yeah why would Castro have been drawn in with 2 outs?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

Our 1st base situation is so shitty, I'd look at bringing Craig back

He is quietly turning things around in Pawtucket. I think that Lis Franc injury really ****ed up the mechanics of his swing. Even then, I'm not doing that unless Boston eats $20 million of what he's owed.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

He is quietly turning things around in Pawtucket. I think that Lis Franc injury really ****ed up the mechanics of his swing. Even then, I'm not doing that unless Boston eats $20 million of what he's owed.

Shit I'd send them jay for craig, 20 million and a few red Sox t ahirts

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi

Yeah why would Castro have been drawn in with 2 outs?

I th8nk he was just confused with outs.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by O.city

If he hadn't had the April he did, heyward would be above that though, and as we've seen, if he Co tines the track he is on thru the past 2 months, he should be.

You are cherry picking something fierce. 15 bombs and 50 ribbies is dog shit for a mid order guy

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I don't understand why people think you can just throw anyone a first baseman's mitt and have them become an adequate defender there.

Ultimately I guess you just have to define 'adequate'.

Would you concede that Defensive Runs Saved is probably among the best defensive metrics out there?

I went back as far as I could find numbers for and in that time I found 3 truly abysmal defensive seasons for 1b - 1 by Mike Jacobs, 1 by Carlos Delgado and 1 by Prince Fielder. Those 3 seasons are the only 3 seasons I could find where a 1b managed a -20 DRS or worse. Using James' fairly straightforward '10 runs equals a win' rule, the 3 absolute worst defensive seasons I could find by a 1b cost their team 2 wins each.

Prince Fielder was easily the most routinely terrible 1b I could find and he averaged about -10 DRS per season; so 1 win lost.

The absolute worst defensive 1b in baseball over a 10 year period cost his team approximately 1 win per year on defense.

Do I think Matt Holliday could do that? Yeah, yeah I do. There's nothing 'adequate' about that performance; it's quite terrible. But on the scale of terrible and in consideration of the damage a 1b is actually capable of out there, I think his offense at 1b would more than make up for clear deficiencies on defense.

I keep thinking about Allen Craig. He did NOTHING correct defensively. He didn't get into a proper crouch, he didn't break at his knees, his footwork was hot garbage, he didn't pick balls well. He was an abysmal defensive 1b. Everything he did looked like an OF playing 1b and yet he was worth 'only' about -5 DRS over a 1500 inning season.

It's not a great solution but I'm done overstating the difficulty of the position and the downside of the experiment. It's a calculus and in that calculus you'll absolutely take a hit defensive at 1b but you'll be a better team with Bourjos/Grichuk getting those ABs over Reynolds. Moreover, what you lose defensively at 1b you gain back, at least partially, by having Bourjos or Grichuk in defensively over Holliday.

Desperate times...

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by O.city

IF you inject a healthy hitting Holliday in the 3 hole, move peralta into the 5 spot, heyward at 4, pham leading off, Wong 6th, yadi 7th there really isn't a reason the offense shouldn't be better. At that point, it's up to the players to perform to levels in which they should or are capable.

The absolute shit hole thag is first base is murdering this offense right now

Heyward hitting clean up is embarrassing

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yadis sack fly was out 2.

Fair enough but it doesn't change the analysis - Heyward still should have taken 3b there.

I suppose it's possible that Heyward's a mad genius that was looking far enough ahead that he knew he'd open up the SS hole by staying at 2b...but I suspect not.

Your runs expected improve significantly by getting to 3b, even with 2 outs. He simply dicked up (because this team runs the bases like ass) and got lucky when his screwup put a shift in order that led to a run.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi

Yeah why would Castro have been drawn in with 2 outs?

He wouldn't have been. So it would have been a simple force at 1b and the inning is still over.

Like I said, the analysis doesn't change - they scored because Heyward screwed up. It was simply butt lucky baseball.

People will use it to claim that Mike Matheny: Master Motivator had his guys playing scrappy baseball but the reality is that it was shitty baserunning combined with extreme fortune.

[George Liquor]

Just call it