*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[KChiefs1]

There is no magic formula to winning in October or many teams would have discovered the formula. Baseball is the sport where luck is the biggest factor.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Yep, and Tampa Bay want to Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. So hey there's always hope.

Now, imagine if the average SB winning team had Trent Dilfer.

[DeepSouth]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Yep, and Tampa Bay want to Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. So hey there's always hope.

I believe Dilfer was with the Ravens when he won the super bowl.

[srvy]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Yep, and Tampa Bay want to Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. So hey there's always hope.

Think you mean Brad Johnson

[RollChiefsRoll]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

There is no magic formula to winning in October or many teams would have discovered the formula. Baseball is the sport where luck is the biggest factor.

27 titles later, the Yankees seem to have figured out something approaching a formula.

[Dunit35]

Originally Posted by srvy

Think you mean Brad Johnson

No. He means Alex Smith and this year.

[BWillie]

Salvador Perez OPS by year
2011 .834
2012 .799
2013 .756
2014 .692
2015 .691

Batting Avg
2011 .331
2012 .301
2013 .292
2014 .260
2015 .249

Still good production offensively for a catcher, that isn't the point, the trend is. If we are going to have him for future years, we NEED to rest him more. Have to have to. One of the reasons I was so against paying for a DH and rather doing it by committee to give Sal more time off. Yes, Kendrys is a big surprise but I hope we do this eventually. If we are still 8 games up in the end of August I'm going to be livid if Sal is still playing as often as he does. His batting average and OPS have gone down EVERY SINGLE YEAR. He needs freshlegs at the plate for our playoff push.

[Hootie]

it's why I can't really take people like 'Hamas' or PB serious because they look at fangraphs and then make conclusions

just yesterday Hamas was like 'nah Moose is the same guy he just had rat shit luck with BABIP last year!'

he totally ignored the fact that was because Moose constantly just pulled the ball into the shift. Every ****ing time. Over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over. OF COURSE YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A TERRIBLE BABIP WHEN YOU HIT INTO THE DEFENSE EVERY TIME. That's the point of the shift.

This offseason, he worked on it, he became a complete hitter, and now he has more hits to left field than he does to right field. Of course his BABIP is going to much higher when he's using THE ENTIRE FIELD. You can't just say, "well he's just luckier this year because his BABIP is way up compared to last year!" There is a reason for that.

and so far I've looked at the past 5 WS champions and surprise surprise ... they all had dominant pitching performances in the postseason.

Posting regular season offensive statistics is meaningless. Pitching wins in October. Hitting can win in July.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

When the postseason hits, pitching wins. Even if it's mediocre guys throwing surprising gems.

Aces!

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Aces!

if John Lackey, a mediocre pitcher, turns into an "ace" for the 2013 postseason ... it happens. The 2013 Red Sox won because Lackey and Lester were dominant.

if the Dodgers go into a postseason series with Kershaw / Greinke / Hamels (or Price) ... they aren't always going to win, but you'd be a god damn fool to think they don't have the odds to win every series.

If I have AK and you have Q10 I'm going to call whatever you bet 100% of the time and realize I'm only going to win 58% of the time. I'm still taking my chances.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

There is no magic formula to winning in October or many teams would have discovered the formula. Baseball is the sport where luck is the biggest factor.

When success in scoring is dependent on accomplishing a task in which it's considered very good if you can be successful between 3 and 4 times out of 10, welcome to arbitrary chance. The difference between an extremely good team and an average team is about the outcome of 15 - 20 games.

You go from 81 and 81 to between 96 to 101 and 61 to 66.

Hence , the inpredictability come playoff time.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll

27 titles later, the Yankees seem to have figured out something approaching a formula.

Different time in baseball. Much easier back then.

[Prison Bitch]

I wouldn't even take Tulo for free, not with that contract and not with his injury history.

[duncan_idaho]

There's plenty of room to walk the middle ground with analytics and "baseball logic."

A balanced approach is the best way to go, IMO. Rely only on analytics, and you're Paul DePodesta/Keith Law. Rely only on "baseball logic and scouting" and you're the Arizona Diamondbacks.

You can't rely entirely on analytics, because you miss things like Moustakas remaking his entire approach over the offseason and becoming a completely different hitter. (For the record, hamas mentioned that in his breakdown of the changes).

But you can't rely entirely on the 'scout's eye' either, because sometimes a players raw skills and abilities don't translate to reality.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

There's plenty of room to walk the middle ground with analytics and "baseball logic."

A balanced approach is the best way to go, IMO. Rely only on analytics, and you're Paul DePodesta/Keith Law. Rely only on "baseball logic and scouting" and you're the Arizona Diamondbacks.

You can't rely entirely on analytics, because you miss things like Moustakas remaking his entire approach over the offseason and becoming a completely different hitter. (For the record, hamas mentioned that in his breakdown of the changes).

But you can't rely entirely on the 'scout's eye' either, because sometimes a players raw skills and abilities don't translate to reality.

If you're referring to predicting the future, you're right. If however you're talking about actual events, then you're not because high level analytics are extremely accurate in assessing performance.


If I say Omar has been a POS this year, analytics will prove that without a shadow of a doubt regardless what "eye tests" say. Predicting how he will do based on them? Yes.....much trickier