*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Hootie]

what's laughable about it?

Johnny Cueto is very comparable to Zack Greinke. Arguably, he's better. At least more consistent.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

and also, Cueto has, by advanced metrics, graded out over Greinke in most years.

They've both been full time starters since 2008:

fWAR: Zack 37, Cueto 21
BWAR: Zack 38, Cueto 24



So not even close.

[Hootie]

Nice cherry pick.

Do you want me to pick that one apart, or ... do you want to just admit you cherry picked the **** out of that one?

[Nightfyre]

I would like to remind you guys that Cueto pitches in the NL. That is at least as important as the fact that he pitches in a band box.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Cueto is every bit the pitcher Zack Greinke is

I can't stand Greinke, but even I don't think this.

[Hootie]

And how many times have you seen Cueto pitch?

SINCE 2011, Cueto has been a top 5 pitcher in baseball and better than Zack Greinke.

starting the clock on Cueto in 2008 against Greinke is like pretending Greinke is the same pitcher now as he was when he went insane and almost quit baseball

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Nice cherry pick.

Do you want me to pick that one apart, or ... do you want to just admit you cherry picked the **** out of that one?

Ooh, I sense a Hootie Double-down is approaching!

[Hootie]

you're trying to pretend Cueto in 2008-2010 is the same guy he's been since 2011?

So I guess Zack Greinke was the same guy in 2004 that he was in 2009, right?

[duncan_idaho]

since 2008, Greinke is better. That includes his phenomenal 2009 season.

Over the past 5 seasons, Cueto has been a better pitcher. That's probably a more meaningful sample than what Cueto did when he was in his first two seasons in the majors (while starting the sample with Greinke's 5th season).

Now, Greinke is having another 2009-type season this year, and at his best is probably better than Cueto... but Cueto has absolutely been one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball over the past 5 seasons and is damn near the top 5.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

since 2008, Greinke is better. That includes his phenomenal 2009 season.

Over the past 5 seasons, Cueto has been a better pitcher. That's probably a more meaningful sample than what Cueto did when he was in his first two seasons in the majors (while starting the sample with Greinke's 5th season).

Now, Greinke is having another 2009-type season this year, and at his best is probably better than Cueto... but Cueto has absolutely been one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball over the past 5 seasons and is damn near the top 5.

Last 5 years:


fWAR: Zack 19.6-14.6
bWAR: I will believe whatever you find


So incorrect, Duncan.

[Saul Good]

How in the hell does Al value Duffy above Mondesi? That's ridiculous.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Last 5 years:


fWAR: Zack 19.6-14.6
bWAR: I will believe whatever you find


So incorrect, Duncan.

His bWAR is higher (Cueto is a 5 bWAR even guy; Greinke just over 4). I can't take fWAR for pitchers seriously because of its over-dependence on strikeouts.

In that 5-year span, here's how they stack up:

STAT: Cueto; Greinke

ERA: 2nd, 22nd
WHIP: 9th, 19th

Greinke beats him in strikeouts and innings and has a better BB:K rate. Cueto has had a significant DL stint in that timeframe, which factors into the first two.

To be honest, they're both top 10 guys in this time period, so it probably is pretty futile to talk much more about it.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Last 5 years:


fWAR: Zack 19.6-14.6
bWAR: I will believe whatever you find


So incorrect, Duncan.

This isn't really a slight on Zack, but fWAR is a cumulative stat. He has pitched A TON OF MORE INNINGS than Cueto, who only pitched 60 innings in 2013.

Again, you're cherry picking.

On a per start basis, Cueto has been better.

[C3HIEF3S]

I'll be at the game tonight. Safe to assume no HDH?

[BWillie]

Who has the largest divisional league in baseball? Deez Royals