Mock 1/23/19

[kccrow]

Just having some fun for shits and giggles...

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Steve Spagnuolo, a former Reid assistant, and Jim Johnson protege, as defensive coordinator. (This is a carryover from last mock, so far 1/2 is true).

Chiefs beginning cap space of $42,967,636 using estimate of $190,000,000 salary cap per OTC (NFL stated range of $187.0 to 191.1 million).

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.13 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. The NFL has stated a cap range between $187.0 and $191.1 million, which means Tyreek's 2019 salary will be between $2.012 and $2.056 million. I will err on the high side at 2.056 for tenders and PPEs.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.336m. Both extensions done after June 1 (noted later).

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.05m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus


Cuts

SS Eric Berry: Eric Berry, despite his leadership, has been available far less than a player making his salary should be. It's time to move on and get guys in here that are available. The move is a June 1st designation which frees up an additional $9.55m in 2019 after June 1 and $5.50m in 2020 with dead money of $6.95m in 2019 and $8.00m in 2020. This cap space used to sign extensions noted above.

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

FA Acquisitions

DL Rodney Gunter (ARZ): Gunter has started to look like a good football player in 2018 and seems to have the work ethic to continue ascending. The Cardinals are in a huge state of flux with coaching changes coming and it will be interesting to see who they try to retain. While Gunter should be on that list, I've also seen alot of players hit the market during such situations that I didn't expect to. Gunter is a big guy at 6'5" 305 and he's got good quickness off the snap and speed to close. I have him valued similarly to Abry Jones(4-yrs/15.5m) and Justin Ellis (3-yrs/13.5m)
[I]4 years, $17.75m with $4.00m signing bonus and $6.75m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 4.00 2020 4.25 2021 4.75 2022 4.75

ED Preston Smith (WAS): Smith is a very solid run defender and gets a ton of pressure on the QB despite less than eye-popping sack totals. He's the type of edge player this team needs on the outside to help stop the bleeding in the run game. He shouldn't command the type of contract that Dee Ford will with his gaudy sack total that will make some GM's go gaga. I think a Whitney Mercilus-type deal taken to current cap dollars is his value.
4 years, $35.00m with $7.00m signing bonus and $13.40m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 8.25 2021 8.75 2022: 9.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on this board seems to want to admit and is becoming one of the better all-around corners in the NFL, plus he's still only 25 with his prime ahead of him.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

RB T.J. Yeldon (JAX): Yeldon is a nice complimentary back that really excels in the passing game and could be a sure-fire weapon under Andy Reid, especially given his penchant for using backs on screens and down the field. Yeldon may look for a starting gig but if there are no takers, he's going to have plenty of options to be part of a committee once again and there may not be a better fit for him.
2 years/$4.5m with $1.4m signing bonus and $1.9m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.75 2020: 2.75

S Andrew Adams (TB): I've been high on Adams since he left UConn and every time he gets a shot to play he does well. He doesn't have many starts with only 4 in each of the past two seasons, but he'd be a nice cheap safety to bring in and compete for a starting gig and at worst should be solid depth.
2 years/$4.0m with $1.0m signing bonus and $1.5m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.80 2020: 2.20

ED Shane Ray (DEN): Ray was on track to be a good contributor and at worst a hell of a situational pass rusher until a wrist injury and subsequent surgeries derailed his career. If he is indeed past that injury and can start putting muscle back on this offseason, then he could be a low risk, low salary, prospect as a situational rusher in KC.
2 years/$4.0m with $700k signing bonus, $1.1m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.10

Notes:
I fully expect the Vikings to cut SS Andrew Sendejo so that they can put a 1st round tender on SS Anthony Harris and then kick the can down the road a bit on Everson Griffen's contract by converting some salary to bonus money so they can re-sign some other players. That all said, if they put an original round tender on Harris, I'd put an offer in on him. He was incredible this year and is young enough to make it worthwhile.

Re-signings

FB Anthony Sherman: Sherman is one of the better fullbacks in the league and is excellent on special teams. His volume of usage offensively gives me pause, but if there's space to sign him then I'd undoubtedly do so.
4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley

Players Already Signed Notes & Guesstimates
Damien Williams: OTC released details of the Williams extension, noting that it was 2 years, 5.1m with cap hits of 1.73 and 2.83 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Initial reports were that the contract was for an extra 3 million, so I'm wondering if there are missing details on unlikely to be earned performance escalators of 1.5m in each year. Either way, unlikely to be earned don't count against the cap and this saves on my estimate by about 1.3m per.

Austin Reiter: The extension for Reiter was released a couple weeks back and for all intensive purposes has cap hits of 1.46 and 2.76 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Trades

The Chiefs franchise tag Dee Ford at the onset of free agency, then trade him to the Green Bay Packers along with their 2nd round pick from the Rams for a 2019 1st #30 (from Saints) and 2019 4th ~118 (from Redskins)

Cap Estimate Net of Transactions: 4.6m pre-June 1 / 6.1m post-June 1

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. LB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 239)
1. CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (6'1" 190) [f/GB - Ford]
2. OL Michael Deiter, Wisconsin (6'5" 304)
3. SS Juan Thornhill, Virginia (6'1" 205)
4. WR Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia(6'1" 215) [f/GB - Ford]
5. RB Elijah Holyfield, Georgia (5'10" 215)
6. FS Kareem Orr, Chattanooga (5'11" 195)
6. TE Kahale Warring, San Diego State (6'5" 250) [Comp - Logan]
7. WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (was RB) (5'9" 180) [f/SF - Streater]


Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, T.J. Yeldon, Elijah Holyfield, Darrel Williams
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Kahale Warring
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Gary Jennings Jr., Byron Pringle, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Deiter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie (OG)
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Michael Deiter (OT), Cameron Erving (OC), Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Rodney Gunter, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Justin Hamilton
ED: Justin Houston, Preston Smith, Breeland Speaks, Shane Ray, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
LB: Anthony Hitchens, Mack Wilson, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Trayvon Mullen, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
DS: Juan Thornhill, Andrew Adams, Jordan Lucas, Armani Watts, Kareem Orr, Eric Murray
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester

[DJ's left nut]

STOOOOOOP!!!!!!

Seriously, do I have to put the whole 'Berry's 2019 salary is nearly fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year' thing in my signature?

In what world do any of you think we're actually going to be able to cut him by then? He's not going to pass the standard player's physical, it will be attributed (rightly or wrongly) to a football injury and we will NOT be able to cut him absent an injury settlement. Dude's money is effectively guaranteed for 2019 at that point.

Seriously - I'd love to get him cut but that !@#$ing guarantee in 2019 is going to hamstring us. We're not getting rid of him because he milked that !@#$ing injury for all it's worth.

"I can't really talk about it..." = his representation knew exactly how to make sure that salary gets paid in 2019. Dude's going under the knife and he's not going to be ready to pass a physical by the first week of March. Once that comes/goes, we be ****ed regarding Eric Berry.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

STOOOOOOP!!!!!!

Seriously, do I have to put the whole 'Berry's 2019 salary is nearly fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year' thing in my signature?

In what world do any of you think we're actually going to be able to cut him by then? He's not going to pass the standard player's physical, it will be attributed (rightly or wrongly) to a football injury and we will NOT be able to cut him absent an injury settlement. Dude's money is effectively guaranteed for 2019 at that point.

Seriously - I'd love to get him cut but that !@#$ing guarantee in 2019 is going to hamstring us. We're not getting rid of him because he milked that !@#$ing injury for all it's worth.

"I can't really talk about it..." = his representation knew exactly how to make sure that salary gets paid in 2019. Dude's going under the knife and he's not going to be ready to pass a physical by the first week of March. Once that comes/goes, we be ****ed regarding Eric Berry.

People really want to ignore the obvious, I guess.

[The Franchise]

Joel Corry is on 610. Basically said you're looking at a minimum of the Fletcher Cox deal for Chris Jones.

Fletcher Cox signed a 6 year, $102,600,000 contract with the Philadelphia Eagles, including a $26,000,000 signing bonus, $63,299,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $17,100,000.

He said that they're going to have to look at either trading or cutting Houston. He can't stay healthy.

[The Franchise]

"The #Chiefs don't have the cap space to do what the Rams did last year. That's going to be a tough proposition." - @corryjoel on #TheDrive pic.twitter.com/3O0xq33UHB

— 610 Sports Radio (@610SportsKC) January 24, 2019

[In58men]

Austin-Seferian Jenkins released.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

STOOOOOOP!!!!!!

Seriously, do I have to put the whole 'Berry's 2019 salary is nearly fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year' thing in my signature?

In what world do any of you think we're actually going to be able to cut him by then? He's not going to pass the standard player's physical, it will be attributed (rightly or wrongly) to a football injury and we will NOT be able to cut him absent an injury settlement. Dude's money is effectively guaranteed for 2019 at that point.

Seriously - I'd love to get him cut but that !@#$ing guarantee in 2019 is going to hamstring us. We're not getting rid of him because he milked that !@#$ing injury for all it's worth.

"I can't really talk about it..." = his representation knew exactly how to make sure that salary gets paid in 2019. Dude's going under the knife and he's not going to be ready to pass a physical by the first week of March. Once that comes/goes, we be ****ed regarding Eric Berry.

Don't be stupid. Most NFL contracts are only guaranteed for injury as a result of playing football in an NFL game. Berry is a non-football injury. I highly doubt his contract guarantees. I'd actually be extremely surprised if it did. And, as far as your 3rd day concern goes, you cut that mother****er the 1st second of the new league year.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Don't be stupid. Most NFL contracts are only guaranteed for injury as a result of playing football in an NFL game. Berry is a non-football injury. I highly doubt his contract guarantees. I'd actually be extremely surprised if it did. And, as far as your 3rd day concern goes, you cut that mother****er the 1st second of the new league year.

I suppose it is a discussion worth having. Is what he has a football injury? I don’t know the rules on this shit.

I just assumed it was a football injury and we are ****ed because Chiefs.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I suppose it is a discussion worth having. Is what he has a football injury? I don’t know the rules on this shit.

I just assumed it was a football injury and we are ****ed because Chiefs.

Haglund's Deformity is 100% non-football related. It's a bony protrusion similar to a bone spur that forms on the back of the heel underneath the Achille's tendon. The Achilles rubbing on the spur causes pain and discomfort. The only "football" part is that cleats could cause more irritation than a normal pair of shoes with a softer back. That is not the cause of the deformity. It's not really an "injury" at all. It's a natural thing Berry's body did. Him not wearing certain kinds of shoes, like cleats, should help with the pain as would surgical removal of the spur. This has absolutely nothing to do with anything football other than playing football can make it more irritating.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Haglund's Deformity is 100% non-football related. It's a bony protrusion similar to a bone spur that forms on the back of the heel underneath the Achille's tendon. The Achilles rubbing on the spur causes pain and discomfort. The only "football" part is that cleats could cause more irritation than a normal pair of shoes with a softer back. That is not the cause of the deformity. It's not really an "injury" at all. It's a natural thing Berry's body did. Him not wearing certain kinds of shoes, like cleats, should help with the pain as would surgical removal of the spur. This has absolutely nothing to do with anything football other than playing football can make it more irritating.

well, I hope you're right and that's how it goes down. We need to move on at any rate; it's unlikely Berry plays meaningful football again, as I've been saying since like week 4.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Haglund's Deformity is 100% non-football related. It's a bony protrusion similar to a bone spur that forms on the back of the heel underneath the Achille's tendon. The Achilles rubbing on the spur causes pain and discomfort. The only "football" part is that cleats could cause more irritation than a normal pair of shoes with a softer back. That is not the cause of the deformity. It's not really an "injury" at all. It's a natural thing Berry's body did. Him not wearing certain kinds of shoes, like cleats, should help with the pain as would surgical removal of the spur. This has absolutely nothing to do with anything football other than playing football can make it more irritating.

Yeah. I’d agree. But knowing the Chiefs there is some ****ing obscure rule about the length of time and the NFI list of some shit.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Don't be stupid. Most NFL contracts are only guaranteed for injury as a result of playing football in an NFL game. Berry is a non-football injury. I highly doubt his contract guarantees. I'd actually be extremely surprised if it did. And, as far as your 3rd day concern goes, you cut that mother****er the 1st second of the new league year.

[Sigh]

You. Can't. Cut. Him. If. He. Can't. Pass. A. Physical.

The guarantee is just a guarantee on day 3. Not for injury or performance or any other qualifier - just a guarantee. But if a player cannot pass a standard player physical as a result of a football related surgery, you can't cut him. He wont pass by day 3 so your 'cut him on day 1' nonsense is prohibited.

There's a ZERO percent chance that his injury will be declared non-football related. Zero. If the chiefs thought that were a possibility they'd have put him on the NFI list and avoided his cap hit for this season.

What would you like to place on this? Hes getting the surgery, it will prohibit the Chiefs from cutting him and we're stuck with his salary in 2019.

You're just flat ****ing wrong here. Any one of your drafts that involves cutting Berry is a waste if your time and anyone who reads it.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

[Sigh]

You. Can't. Cut. Him. If. He. Can't. Pass. A. Physical.

The guarantee is just a guarantee on day 3. Not for injury or performance or any other qualifier - just a guarantee. But if a player cannot pass a standard player physical as a result of a football related surgery, you can't cut him. He wont pass by day 3 so your 'cut him on day 1' nonsense is prohibited.

There's a ZERO percent chance that his injury will be declared non-football related. Zero. If the chiefs thought that were a possibility they'd have put him on the NFI list and avoided his cap hit for this season.

What would you like to place on this? Hes getting the surgery, it will prohibit the Chiefs from cutting him and we're stuck with his salary in 2019.

You're just flat ****ing wrong here. Any one of your drafts that involves cutting Berry is a waste if your time and anyone who reads it.

You're right, EXCEPT that I'm not sure this would count as a football injury. I think if it does NOT count as a football injury, they're off the hook. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

You're right, EXCEPT that I'm not sure this would count as a football injury. I think if it does NOT count as a football injury, they're off the hook. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.

I don't think Berry and his people would have any issue convincing a likely arbitrator (I'm sure that's what would end up happening) that the injury was exacerbated and/or compounded by years of playing football. Afterall, it wasn't an issue when he was at TN or even for the first several years of his career. Then suddenly it pops up.

I know you run into a causation/correlation problem here, but I'd be stunned if an arbitrator ruled that this was unrelated to his football career. There's going to be enough smoke there that they'll see fire.

[YontsRBake]

I don’t completely understand why people want Mack Wilson, what’s the difference between him and Ragland? They seem like the same player to me.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think Berry and his people would have any issue convincing a likely arbitrator (I'm sure that's what would end up happening) that the injury was exacerbated and/or compounded by years of playing football. Afterall, it wasn't an issue when he was at TN or even for the first several years of his career. Then suddenly it pops up.

I know you run into a causation/correlation problem here, but I'd be stunned if an arbitrator ruled that this was unrelated to his football career. There's going to be enough smoke there that they'll see fire.

Yep. I can't believe people think the Chiefs could wiggle their way out of it