*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***

[duncan_idaho]

And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

All minor league players though. If next season didn't project to be a great opportunity then of course trading Davis is a great idea. We should gamble all we want with money and minor leaguers, but not important pieces to the major league roster as long as next season is still brimming with optimism. I am happy to endure a few years of rebuilding if it means another deep playoff run, though I don't think trading Davis is necessary to prevent rebuilding seasons. I can't remember the last time we lost anything significant off the major league roster that we had control of moving forward and I doubt it starts this season.

We can pay for a closer next season for the 13M saved by trading Davis. If you can get a return with near-mlb prospects that can supplement the current core for Davis/Volquez/Hoch/Morales, you do that. Maybe it even establishes a new core that opens the window well past 2017 if you end up with some game-changing prospects and a little luck from your own system.

In 2016:
Trading Davis saves 3.2M
Trading Volquez saves 3.8M
Trading Hoch saves 2.2M
Trading Morales saves 3.6M

That's a lot of scratch that could enhance our roster next year.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Would Morales fetch us anything in trade?

A bucket of practice balls.

Honestly, not much. He's replacement level right now

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

We can pay for a closer next season for the 13M saved by trading Davis. If you can get a return with near-mlb prospects that can supplement the current core for Davis/Volquez/Hoch/Morales, you do that. Maybe it even establishes a new core that opens the window well past 2017 if you end up with some game-changing prospects and a little luck from your own system.

Volquez and Hoch definitely have to go at this point. I am a little uncertain on Morales but if he makes for a good package somewhere and it helps get a good deal done so be it. Keeping Davis does not prevent the team from remaining competitive beyond 2017. It's not an if/then proposition.

If we all agree Davis is one of the two best closers in baseball then there is basically no way anyone can argue the team is stronger in the bullpen next year by losing him. I hope we try to get Holland back as well.

I know people are afraid of the drop off potential after 2017 but that fear shouldn't hamper our all in push for next season. Also, the more we see of the young guys now, the more it looks the team even as currently constructed we will be competitive even without Hosmer, Moose, and Cain once Mondesi and Dozier come up. I believe losing Davis unnecessarily weakens us next season. What we are really going to need is starting pitching and we can get that with all the extra World Series revenue from next season.

[Mama Hip Rockets]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

One reason why any comparisons between this team and teams from the previous three years is just ridiculous:

The @Royals have now allowed an MLB-high 72 runs in the 1st inning. They allowed a total of 68 in 162 games last season.

— Dave Holtzman (@DHoltzy) July 26, 2016

The starting pitching on this team is just not good enough to be able to compare this Royals team to years past.

Wow.

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

We can pay for a closer next season for the 13M saved by trading Davis. If you can get a return with near-mlb prospects that can supplement the current core for Davis/Volquez/Hoch/Morales, you do that. Maybe it even establishes a new core that opens the window well past 2017 if you end up with some game-changing prospects and a little luck from your own system.

In 2016:
Trading Davis saves 3.2M
Trading Volquez saves 3.8M
Trading Hoch saves 2.2M
Trading Morales saves 3.6M

That's a lot of scratch that could enhance our roster next year.

If we'd put Soria and Kennedy in on any trade offer as a salary dump we'd be in a great spot to extend somebody and sign a decent starter next year.

Kennedy is awful with this juiced up ball.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

If we'd put Soria and Kennedy in on any trade offer as a salary dump we'd be in a great spot to extend somebody and sign a decent starter next year.

Kennedy is awful with this juiced up ball.

I wish. No way anyone takes on those contracts.

[Sure-Oz]

@matthewpouliot: Paulo Orlando
2015: .249, .444 SLG in 241 AB
2016: .317, .391 SLG in 243 AB
2015: 53/5 K/BB in 241 AB
2016: 52/5 K/BB in 243 AB

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Sure.

Congrats to them. After three years of being dead wrong about the Royals, they finally got it kind of right.

And all it took was:
Mike Moustakas missing almost all of the season
Lorenzo Cain having a lengthy DL stint
Alex Gordon missing time with a fluke injury and having an extremely poor season compared to projections
The SP depth getting wrecked by injuries that took 3 of the top 8 rotation arms out of action
MLB juicing the baseball (tough time to have a flyball heavy staff and a big reason for the extreme home-road splits)

Way to go, analytics guys. You nailed it.




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Was just about to say I didn't know the analytics guys project injury, but you got it covered.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I don't see them trading Davis. Maybe if Soria didn't blow chunks I would believe it a bit more. But we went to back to back WS largely on bullpen strength and our best bullpen won the WS over the best starting staff. Being down to just one dominant and reliable reliever is not something I believe is a recipe for success for this team.

With the rest of MLB emulating the great bullpen approach the Royals have ridden the past two seasons, KC would be smart to look at cashing in.

If, for example, they could get a guy with all-star ability at 2B (Trea Turner) who could be the everyday 2B in 2017 and be a major upgrade as well as someone who can slide into the MLB rotation in 2017 and be league average or better (Lopez, AJ Cole), that probably is more helpful than having the most dominant closer around.

They're not talking about trading Davis for long term prospects multiple years away from MLB (if they were, he already would have been traded). It would be for hole-filling assets that help immediately.

Re: Morales, in a sellers market, he has value for sure. The slow start hurts, but the guy is .330/.430/.567 over his past 150 ABs (nearly two full months dating back to June). That's a bat that would help a lot of teams.

He, Volquez and Hochevar can be traded for best return available, since they likely were not part of the plan for 2017, anyway. Would be ideal if at least part of that returns a SP who could be in the rotation by at least midseason 2017, and maybe sooner...


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[Al Bundy]

Not Royals related but...

Sources: #BlueJays agree to acquire Melvin Upton Jr. from #Padres for Class A prospect. Financial terms not known. Likely finalized today.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 26, 2016

[Pasta Little Brioni]

BJ

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Is this a good time to talk about the analytics gurus being wrong about the Royals again?

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Sure.

Congrats to them. After three years of being dead wrong about the Royals, they finally got it kind of right.

And all it took was:
Mike Moustakas missing almost all of the season
Lorenzo Cain having a lengthy DL stint
Alex Gordon missing time with a fluke injury and having an extremely poor season compared to projections
The SP depth getting wrecked by injuries that took 3 of the top 8 rotation arms out of action
MLB juicing the baseball (tough time to have a flyball heavy staff and a big reason for the extreme home-road splits)

Way to go, analytics guys. You nailed it.

Pwned!

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

If we'd put Soria and Kennedy in on any trade offer as a salary dump we'd be in a great spot to extend somebody and sign a decent starter next year.

Kennedy is awful with this juiced up ball.

He's been prone to the gopher ball his whole career. Let's not pretend this is a new thing. He was getting bombed in Petco Park which is a canyon. His K rate has saved him his career and it's helped him his 1st month here, but no more. He's one of the worst starters in MLb

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I'd start listening on Hosmer for sure. Set to make 10+ next year and he's so overrated. He's got a 0.2 fWAR and he's 13th among 1B in weighted runs created. I don't think you can fool many GMs anymore with the analytics being so prevalent, but maybe someone sees him breaking thru to 24HR power and not all these bullshit grounders.


I'd be fine playing Moose or Cuthbert there next year and using that $ to buy a starter

I actually agree with this. Put Moose at 1B and sign him to an extension.

[Great Expectations]

Moose looked to be in better shape than normal during the trip to the White House.