It's been a long time coming. Adiós.

[OnTheWarpath15]

It's time for me to bow out. It's been almost 10 years, and I'm tired.

Tired of the false narratives. Tired of people arguing the poster instead of the post. Tired of discussing football with people who favor excuses over evidence. Tired of wasting time talking about an organization that hasn't won a playoff game in the lifetime of a college senior. Tired of watching other great posters leaving entirely or posting less, weakening the Football IQ this place was known for 5-10 years ago.

I know posting a thread instead of just walking away will open the door for many to take their cheap shots - we all know who they are - and if you don't, just wait. They'll show themselves. Those of you that know me privately know this has been building for a long time.

With all that said, I'll say what I've always said: This team has talent, but will continually fall short as long as they keep thinking you can win in the postseason consistently with average QB play. You don't put enough pressure on the opposing defense, and it puts too much pressure on your defense - if they don't have a near-perfect day, you lose.

Peters and Conley were great picks and should make an impact in the years to come. Should be fun to watch. (What? According to some, I NEVER say anything positive - just another false narrative) While I doubt he'll get his shot, I'd like to see if Murray can be that franchise guy, or if he fell for reasons other than what people here assume - namely, his height and injury history. Hopefully they get Houston signed long-term, because if they don't they are in deep, deep shit. The defense tends to carry this team, and Houston is the most important cog in said defense.

I've made a lot of great friends here that are still friends to this day, and will continue to be. This place was awesome when it was more community based - when there would be gatherings, tailgates, etc. Now, it's littered with trolls that take advantage of the anonymity of the internet and would never show their face in public. That attitude has weakened this place considerably, IMHO.

For those of you I call a friend, we'll be in touch. If anyone that isn't already a friend privately or on Facebook/Twitter wants to continue to keep in touch, I'll keep my PM's open for a week or so.

Thanks, Kyle. It was fun for a while. Queue the "well, bye/sour grapes" posts in 3...2...1.

[RunKC]

Here's something for people to think about. Below are facts.

In 2011 on a top 5 talented 49er team, Alex Smith has SIX 4th quarter comeback wins.

In the middle of November (can't find the stat for the year so if anyone can assist that'd be great) he had a 4th Q QBR of 118.8, which was first in the NFL.


http://www.ninersnation.com/2011/11/...ch-quarterback

And in 2012 he played 8 games (other 2 he barely played due to injury) and had 12 TD's and 1,659 yards, translating to 3,300 ish yards with 24 TD's.

In the 2nd half of 2013, with what I would call a slightly below average receiving core and a slightly above average OL (that's fair right?), there were Alex's numbers (including the playoff game)

18 TD's/3 INT's and 1,772 yards.

So, having said that, and knowing the stats he has in the playoffs, do you think Alex can replicate those numbers with the following:

-an at least average OL like the 2nd half of 2013
-best WR core he's ever had (this is fair to say, and mostly because of Maclin)
-having a top 10 talented team
-throwing more in Reid's offense

What say you?

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by BossChief

It shows he isn't a liability in the playoffs, at minimum..and shows he has the ability to play at a high level on the big stage.

It shows almost nothing because of the limited sample size.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

So it's all the other player's fault?

It was a question, not a statement.

That said, it's a valid question, for sure. How many times have you seen Dwayne Bowe get 150 yards+ in a game? How many times have we seen Donnie Avery get open for a big play and NOT drop the ball? Same goes for AJ Jenkins. Without his big catch, I doubt he's a 2014 Chief.

Ron Parker, Brandon Flowers, Eric Berry - those guys were playing their asses off and the reason the Chiefs gave up so many points in the second half was mainly due to the loss of Flowers. T.Y. Hilton started going off and no one could cover him.

There was certainly a lack of intensity by several players in 2014, beginning with Dwayne Bowe. It's silly not to believe the Chiefs will be a better team and have better play from their QB in 2015.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

What additional evidence is there that we won't improve?

The fact that a lot of the players you're counting on as the reasons why the Chiefs will take a drastic leap of improvement compared to last year are either rookies, second year players or JAG types of guys that haven't really shown anything to date yet. It could be the case they are Week 1 difference makers, but it's not likely.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Because yes, there's a SHITLOAD that says we will. No, I can't state with certainty that Maclin/Wilson/Conley will be better than Bowe/Avery/Hemingway but I can say that Maclin's production, skills and fit are all much MUCH better for this O than Bowe's. I can say that Wilson was more productive in his limited run than Avery was last season and I can say that Hemingway has largely proven to be trash and that if Conley isn't an improvement on him, Avery will be. That's evidence. Do you disagree with any thing I said there?

So Wilson, being better than Avery -who was derided as a pretty terrible player here on this board so if I set this bar any higher my dick will drag over it- is going to be enough of a credible threat that defenses won't be able to double or triple Maclin because it would let Wilson run free for huge gains and scores?

It could happen, but Wilson is still an undersized, undrafted WR out of a program that didn't even have a football team until 2010. He didn't play against quality opponents (and even then, it was the Sun Belt) until his final year at the school. In that regard he's a step up above a Division II type of guy. The statistical deck is stacked against him; if he proves to be a #2 or better type of WR in his second year (which, let's be honest here, there aren't any teams in the league where he'd even be in this type of discussion) would put him in the same conversation of being as good as Wayne Chrebet and Victor Cruz and would be better than a HoF caliber in Rod Smith in his second year.

Again, it's possible, but it's not likely because we'd be talking about an additional handful of UDFA guys who come out of college and become legit threats in such a short time. Wilson's got the edge over Rod Smith and Chrebet because of the ridiculously one-sided officiating that hamstrings defenses from actually playing football so he very well could get exceed Wes Welker's 29 catches for 434 yards in a "sophomore" year but given the fact that I can point to such a few number of UDFA WRs having success, it's really hard to count on this happening.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Fasano wasn't good last year. He completely stopped blocking and he was O-Lineman slow. Moreover, he started the first half of the season as the #1 TE. Kelce out of the blocks at #1 will make a large difference on it's own.

Never said he was some sort of crucial part and wasn't good but he was necessary and you knew what you're getting...

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

In order to get to 'no improvement' from the TE group, Kelce has to not get better AND the replacements for Fasano have to fail to clear a pretty damn low bar he set last year. The former is pretty damn unlikely, especially given the increase in Kecle's playing time. At worst, I'll cede the latter in the TE position group breaks even. Aight.

Kelce's downside is the knee injury and fumbling. Beyond that, it's going to be shocking if he isn't chipping in 600-700 yards and X amount of TDs. Problem is, O'Shaughnessy is coming out of the freaking Missouri Valley and Harris is a basketball convert and it shows. If O'Shaughnessy isn't capable of blocking NFL talent, then it's going to complicate things for the running game to a large extent as well as the passing game.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The OL - seriously, if you don't see how markedly improved that line's going to be and claim 'no evidence that it will improve', I'm just not sure what to say. It simply completely disregards what a ****ing abortion McGlynn was last season while simultaneously deciding that Rodney Hudson must be Mike Webster. Yeah, losing Hudson's going to hurt, but there's good reason to believe that adding Grubbs will largely off-set that. So now you have to believe that Fisher won't improve, Fulton/Fanaika can't give us any improvement over where Fulton was last year (or even Morse) and that Kush or Morse will be as bad as McGlynn was. Oh yeah, and that no combination of Allen/Stephenson will be better than Harris. You have to look at that OL with the absolute most dour of lenses to believe that to be the case.

Allen has been a disappointment and if Stephenson wasn't worth putting back in the lineup because of disciplinary reasons even though the offensive line was just so bad last year, then it's hard to buy they'll be improvements. Fulton wasn't very good either and Fanaika just seems like another Linkenbach or Schwartz type of signing.

It's not a simple "Grubbs > McGlynn and Grubbs = Hudson" so it's not going to be as bad as last year totally glosses over the fact there is a total question mark at center -be it Kush or Morse- in favor of thinking that there's a quality OL replacing a quality OL and therefore being a wash at worst or a marked improvement at best.

There's also the fact that there's a good chance, again, that Fisher is going to be the only OL that starts Week 1 that was starting for the Chiefs for a plurality of games in '14. If the line sucks on the whole then one of the reasons will be because of chemistry and the five starters not "gelling".

But really the problem on the line is going to be center. Morse can't snap a shotgun and Kush played in a grand total of one NFL game against an opponent that made Rokevious Watkins look good. I can almost guarantee there will be handwringing about how bad the center is and why didn't Dorsey didn't do anything concrete to improve that position in the offseason by the bye week if not much earlier.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

As to your 'improvement over nothing' line, the inconsistent logic that is necessary for that to hold tells me you're just trolling at this point. Yes, we got NOTHING from them last year. So ANYTHING from them is an improvement and a massive one at that. So how again do you say they aren't improvements just by playing to the level they are capable of? Because they weren't actually capable of playing AT ALL last season.

Achilles tears suck and a lot of guys don't come back from them. It'll be a win if one of DeVito or DJ come back close to their level of play that we're expecting. The run defense will improve, but that exactly wasn't the problem with '14's team outside of the games against Oakland and Arizona.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You're creating straw men to attempt to salvage a shitty argument. The D doesn't have to be the '85 bears to have shown improvement.

Yes it does. < 19 points allowed a game and no games allowing 30+ points is AMAZING under these current bullshit rules. The only way the defense is better than last year is if they regularly shutdown an offense in both of its phases as well as hauling in every pass a defender gets a hand on for an interception and generating a load of fumbles with almost as many of recoveries. It could happen, but turnovers are largely driven by luck.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Peters needs to be better than Cooper. Nelson needs to be better than Owens. Gaines and Ford need to be better their 2nd year in the league (THAT NEVER HAPPENS!).

I already said Peters will likely be a starter sooner than later on defense or at least getting enough rotational snaps you'd think he's a starter. He'll probably get some picks too. Beyond that, Gaines needs to improve so he can replace Sean Smith as the #2 corner next year and Nelson just need to make the team.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

This gets back to your fatalist bullshit. Improvement in the margins is still improvement.

Improving the margins is an improvement, that is 100% correct. But this team needs improvements beyond the margins to take the next step from where they were last year. The defense absolutely has to '13 Seahawks or '85 Bears good to the point they're not allowing offenses to get more than a touchdown and field goal lead at any point in the game. The offense has to be better across the board to be the next step from last year in terms of quarterbacking, receiving and blocking. The special teams.. Well, Winchester has to not snap over Colquitt's head and Santos has to be 90%+ on kicks shorter than 30 yards out.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If you want to start the season with the expectations that you either build a 14-2 juggernaut or you've wasted your time, more power to you. Sadly, that's not how the NFL works. This is a parity driven league where wins are ALWAYS found in the margins.

Well, until you get a franchise QB, then you have the have a team that's at least capable of winning 14 games in the regular season by getting all the right bounces going your way and beating the opponents you have no business losing to. The goal should be a team capable of winning 11 games year in and year out on the bottom edge of the scale. Wins and losses coming on the margins means you're a franchise hovering around the .500 mark; there's no real difference between 7-9 and 9-7 and only bad luck and injuries differentiates 10-6 from 6-10.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The roster is objectively better than the team that played the vast majority of 2014 and by a significant amount. It's a complete loss to me how you can't find evidence of that.

There's no "objective" measures you can point to as being definitive proof of the roster being better than '14. Subjectively, you can think that and may very well be correct. But, as per the reasons I've outlined in the last few posts, there isn't a lot of objective differences from '14 to '15 now beside Maclin being better than Bowe because of agility and speed reasons, Grubbs being an obvious upgrade over whatever slapdick was manning LG and DeVito/DJ coming back to a defense that was still good without them unless you think every rookie and every player drafted last year comes out to be replacement level guys at their positions right of the gate. The rookies and second year guys being above JAG level this year is possible... it's just not likely.

So yeah, there's a lot more to me that states that the bookmakers in Vegas have the Chiefs' futures odds of a title win on par with Buffalo, Miami and Minnesota (33 to 1) and the over under on wins at 8.5 when you think about the limited improvements the team has made (Maclin, getting DeVito and or DJ back) compared to what other teams have done as well as the absolutely brutal schedule.

[Predarat]

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by -King-

Oh? Maybe I should reference the 215 yard game or 208 yard game instead right? So much brilliance to choose from!! I just love how he led the team to that 43-8 Superbowl win. Just spectacular stuff there.
Posted via Mobile Device

No, you're idiotic for basing a QBs worth on PASSING YARDS alone ... I mean, good God, how desperate can you be?

[RunKC]

From what I've seen, Alex plays like that when he has no choice. He knew the team needed him.

Only exception to that was the Raiders game at Arrowhead where he was throwing deep and taking some shots.
He took some shots in Pittsburgh as well. I just hope he get that attacking mindset.

It's a very legit question and concern.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

It shows almost nothing because of the limited sample size.

Probably, but maybe not.

If a guy goes out there and in his very first game in the post-season plays a hell of a game, it doesn't say that's what he'll always do, but it does say that the moment isn't too big for him.

As a Cardinals fan, I'm not afraid of Michael Wacha going out there and being cowed by a showdown with Clayton Kershaw. Sure, he may go out there, not have his best stuff that day and just flat lose - but it won't be because he's afraid of the moment.

It's the same thing with Alex Smith. I don't believe any player is capable of flipping on the 'pressure' switch and playing better in the clutch. I believe over large enough sample sizes, virtually everybody's post-season performance will mirror their regular season performances. However, I maintain an exception to that rule in that believe that players are sometimes unable to handle the pressure of the post-season and those players will fold because of that pressure.

I don't think we have to worry about that with Smith. The pressure won't unravel Smith in the post-season. That's a pretty damn handy bit of information to have for a team that intends to win around him and not through him. It means they can rely on a baseline performance from him in the post-season and build from there.

[|Zach|]

He is right though. This place sucks.

Though you can only talk about and break down something so much it's just football it isn't this infinitely complicated thing.

There are some interesting people here and it can be fun to see all the random stuff that comes up as well as DC which is basically Free Republic these days.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Probably, but maybe not.

If a guy goes out there and in his very first game in the post-season plays a hell of a game, it doesn't say that's what he'll always do, but it does say that the moment isn't too big for him.

As a Cardinals fan, I'm not afraid of Michael Wacha going out there and being cowed by a showdown with Clayton Kershaw. Sure, he may go out there, not have his best stuff that day and just flat lose - but it won't be because he's afraid of the moment.

It's the same thing with Alex Smith. I don't believe any player is capable of flipping on the 'pressure' switch and playing better in the clutch. I believe over large enough sample sizes, virtually everybody's post-season performance will mirror their regular season performances. However, I maintain an exception to that rule in that believe that players are sometimes unable to handle the pressure of the post-season and those players will fold because of that pressure.

I don't think we have to worry about that with Smith. The pressure won't unravel Smith in the post-season. That's a pretty damn handy bit of information to have for a team that intends to win around him and not through him. It means they can rely on a baseline performance from him in the post-season and build from there.

I agree with your overall sentiment that "clutch" doesn't exist but "choking" absolutely does.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I agree with your overall sentiment that "clutch" doesn't exist but "choking" absolutely does.

Watchout saying that, you'll get bombarded.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by O.city

Watchout saying that, you'll get bombarded.

I like my chances with the company I'll keep based on my claim.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by RunKC

He took some shots in Pittsburgh as well. I just hope he get that attacking mindset.

Oh yeah...love that attacking mindset from Alex when we get those big 12 points in a pivotal game.

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by |Zach|

He is right though. This place sucks.

Though you can only talk about and break down something so much it's just football it isn't this infinitely complicated thing.

There are some interesting people here and it can be fun to see all the random stuff that comes up as well as DC which is basically Free Republic these days.

You mean like how the morons have turned this thread in to exactly why he is leaving?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But we CAN expect the same performance from Smith that the Seahawks got from Wilson in 2013.

So Alex Smith is going from the bottom of the league in YPC and TD% to the top of the league in YPC and TD%.

When pigs fly, mother****er.