A look at the improvement in the rushing defense. - Page 3

Coogs · 10-07-2004, 08:44 AM

Last year, after two games our rushing defense was first in the NFL allowing just over 60 yards a game. That was against San Diego and Pittsburgh. It seemed like the rushing defense was looking up at that point, and we all saw where it headded and we ended up. Pretty much at the bottom of the heap.

Enter Gun, and his "take away their heart by stopping the run" philosophy. The stats are starting to bear out that Gun is living up to what he promised.

After two games this year, we were right at dead last in rushing defense and yards per attempt. Now, after 4 games, we have climbed to 25th in rushing defense, and 20th in yards per attempt.

And I realize stats can be minipulated to do just about anything, but a couple of interesting things show up if you take out 2 runs.

In terms of stats, those two runs are starting to look like outliers. There are 121 pieces of data that can be analized at this point. In those 121 pieces, we have given up 531 yards for a 4.4 average.

Without those two runs (47 by QG from Denver and 71 to Foster from Carolina), there would be 119 pieces of data to look at. On those 119, we have given up 413 yards, which would rand us at 13th in the league vs the rush, and 3.5 yards per attempt which would rank us 5th.

I realize you can not throw out those two attempts, and I know I am basing my results off of "mean" only statistical analysis, but those two runs look to be outliers after 4 games worth of data.

It looks as if Gun really is taking away the run after being dead last after two weeks, and GR really wasn't taking away the run after being ranked 1st after two weeks.

We are only 1-3, but I have faith now that we may be on to something that could turn out better than 13-3 and an early playoff exit.

Coogs · 10-08-2004, 07:01 AM

Gaz,

I like the fact that 33% of the opponents rushes have been stacked up at or behind the LOS. And 60% have been for 3 yards or less. I'm not sure we had 72 stops all season long last year for 3 yards or less. I really think Gun is on the right track to taking away the run.

KCTitus · 10-08-2004, 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaz

... the mean is what the vast majority of Planet stat-mongers throw out as “statistical analysis.”

kool aid drinker!

Gaz · 10-08-2004, 07:13 AM

Me, too. He said that would be his goal and we are seeing the results after only [4] games. Great stuff for starving Defense Homers.

Since we did not replace most of the Defensive players, a lot of folks see this as the same D as last season. I think that is misguided. This is a brand new Defense. And after its fourth game, it stuffed one of the best RBs in the game. That is impressive.

I think the improvement will continue. But I also think there is a ceiling to that improvement. We lack top-tier talent at LB & CB.

I am happy with the DL [particularly with Browning at DE] as a mix of some good veterans and some promising younguns. They are getting penetration and making stops for negative or no yards. Run D was our bane last season. It is much better now.

I like Fujita and I like Mitchell’s upside. Barber has been a disappointment and Beisel [bless his HUGE heart] is just not starting MLB material, IMO. He has done well for his ability level, after being thrown into the starting role, but he should not be the starter next season.

McCleon appears to be struggling mightily. Is it Gunther’s scheme or Father Time? Warfield has blossomed under Gunther [a pass rush makes ANY CB better], but he is probably going to jail soon, and if I had my way would be out of the R&G next year. CB is another weakness, even if Carl ignores me and keeps Warfield.

Still, even with holes at LB & CB, Gunther’s D has improved at an amazing pace. This is pretty much what I hoped would happen when we signed Gunther.

And I have to admit that I really enjoyed him giving ‘tude to the Ravens fans. Look at the face in headsnap’s wallpaper. How can you not love the guy?

xoxo~
Gaz
Happy to have Gunther back on board.

**the Talking Can** · 10-08-2004, 07:34 AM

We're better....but we won't know if we're better in any meaningful way until after our next4-5 games...if our D holds ground against the Patriots, Colt, Falcons then we can strip naked and disco....

Coogs · 10-08-2004, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

We're better....but we won't know if we're better in any meaningful way until after our next4-5 games...if our D holds ground against the Patriots, Colt, Falcons then we can strip naked and disco....

I understand the wait and see mentality. But all signs the past couple of weeks point towards the D being able to hold ground against the three teams you have listed. Will we hold against all three? Probably not. After all, I would guess if you took a poll around the country, most fans would say the Ravens have one of the best defenses, if not the best defense, in the NFL. They were torched last Monday night. But they are still one of the best.

If we do, we will/should be ranked #1 at the end of the season.

10-07-2004, 08:44 AM
Coogs In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $-2055651	A look at the improvement in the rushing defense. Last year, after two games our rushing defense was first in the NFL allowing just over 60 yards a game. That was against San Diego and Pittsburgh. It seemed like the rushing defense was looking up at that point, and we all saw where it headded and we ended up. Pretty much at the bottom of the heap. Enter Gun, and his "take away their heart by stopping the run" philosophy. The stats are starting to bear out that Gun is living up to what he promised. After two games this year, we were right at dead last in rushing defense and yards per attempt. Now, after 4 games, we have climbed to 25th in rushing defense, and 20th in yards per attempt. And I realize stats can be minipulated to do just about anything, but a couple of interesting things show up if you take out 2 runs. In terms of stats, those two runs are starting to look like outliers. There are 121 pieces of data that can be analized at this point. In those 121 pieces, we have given up 531 yards for a 4.4 average. Without those two runs (47 by QG from Denver and 71 to Foster from Carolina), there would be 119 pieces of data to look at. On those 119, we have given up 413 yards, which would rand us at 13th in the league vs the rush, and 3.5 yards per attempt which would rank us 5th. I realize you can not throw out those two attempts, and I know I am basing my results off of "mean" only statistical analysis, but those two runs look to be outliers after 4 games worth of data. It looks as if Gun really is taking away the run after being dead last after two weeks, and GR really wasn't taking away the run after being ranked 1st after two weeks. We are only 1-3, but I have faith now that we may be on to something that could turn out better than 13-3 and an early playoff exit.
Posts: 21,898

10-08-2004, 07:01 AM	#31
Coogs In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $-2055651	Gaz, I like the fact that 33% of the opponents rushes have been stacked up at or behind the LOS. And 60% have been for 3 yards or less. I'm not sure we had 72 stops all season long last year for 3 yards or less. I really think Gun is on the right track to taking away the run.
Posts: 21,898

10-08-2004, 07:13 AM	#33
Gaz Defense Homer Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Rancho Gaz Casino cash: $10010793	Gotta love it... Me, too. He said that would be his goal and we are seeing the results after only [4] games. Great stuff for starving Defense Homers. Since we did not replace most of the Defensive players, a lot of folks see this as the same D as last season. I think that is misguided. This is a brand new Defense. And after its fourth game, it stuffed one of the best RBs in the game. That is impressive. I think the improvement will continue. But I also think there is a ceiling to that improvement. We lack top-tier talent at LB & CB. I am happy with the DL [particularly with Browning at DE] as a mix of some good veterans and some promising younguns. They are getting penetration and making stops for negative or no yards. Run D was our bane last season. It is much better now. I like Fujita and I like Mitchell’s upside. Barber has been a disappointment and Beisel [bless his HUGE heart] is just not starting MLB material, IMO. He has done well for his ability level, after being thrown into the starting role, but he should not be the starter next season. McCleon appears to be struggling mightily. Is it Gunther’s scheme or Father Time? Warfield has blossomed under Gunther [a pass rush makes ANY CB better], but he is probably going to jail soon, and if I had my way would be out of the R&G next year. CB is another weakness, even if Carl ignores me and keeps Warfield. Still, even with holes at LB & CB, Gunther’s D has improved at an amazing pace. This is pretty much what I hoped would happen when we signed Gunther. And I have to admit that I really enjoyed him giving ‘tude to the Ravens fans. Look at the face in headsnap’s wallpaper. How can you not love the guy? xoxo~ Gaz Happy to have Gunther back on board.
Posts: 5,911

10-08-2004, 07:34 AM	#34
the Talking Can Supporter Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: street Casino cash: $9362208	We're better....but we won't know if we're better in any meaningful way until after our next4-5 games...if our D holds ground against the Patriots, Colt, Falcons then we can strip naked and disco.... __________________ Clark Hunt: "Thank god for the Dominican pool boy"
Posts: 51,585