Everything you wanted to know about Cassel's contract compared to peers.

[Chiefnj2]

From insidethecap.blogspot

Is Matt Cassel the Next Tony Romo?

In the valuing of NFL contracts there are standard metrics by which both clubs and agents utilize to determine the comparative value of contracts. The metrics most often publicized are guaranteed money and total contract value. While these metrics are most certainly important, particularly total guaranteed money, these are not the only metrics used.

Another metric is Average Per Year, which in the case of a free agent contract or draft pick contract is simply the total value of the contract divided by the length of the contract. However, when determining Average Per Year in a contract renegotiation or extension, the formula is total value minus the remaining money to be earned on the previous contract divided by the total new years of the contract. In the example of a player with one year left on his contract who signs a five-year contract, there are four new years, thereby making it a four-year extension. The Average Per Year is then representative of the new money per new contract year.

The metric of 3-Year Total is simply how much money will the player have made if the team were to terminate the contract after three years. This metric speaks to whether or not a contract is front or back loaded. For example, two players both sign five-year contracts worth $50 million with the same guarantee. Using the Average Per Year metric, these contracts are equal. However, lets say that in player A’s contract he’s slated to make $40 million in the first three years and then slated to make $10 million over the final two years , while player B is slated to make $20 million in the first three years and the remaining $30 million over the final two years. The 3-Year Total metric makes this distinction and shows that player A’s contract is superior to player B’s, even though the Average Per Year metric shows that they are equal.

Another metric that distinguishes contracts from one another is the Guarantee Per Year metric. This metric accounts for the length of the contract as it relates to guaranteed money. Obviously two players who both receive $20 million in guaranteed money are in a great positions; however, if player A’s contract is for seven years while player B’s contract is for four years, then player B has the more favorable deal, all things equal.

As you read the analysis of the Matt Cassel contract below, you’ll see me reference these metrics and who the players are that are most comparable to Cassel in each of these metrics.



QB Matt Cassel
Club: KC
Contract Length: 6 years

Total Guarantee: $27,750,000
Guarantee Per Year: $4,625,333
Total Value of Contract Guaranteed: 44%
Comparable Total Guarantees at Position: OAK QB JaMarcus Russell, $32,000,000; DAL QB Tony Romo, $29,294,118; NE QB Tom Brady, $26,500,000; CIN QB Carson Palmer, $24,000,000

Total Value: $63,000,000
Average Per Year (APY): $10,500,000
Comparable APYs at Position: ATL QB Matt Ryan, $11,000,000; SL QB Marc Bulger, $10,841,667; OAK QB JaMarcus Russell, $10,166,667; NO QB Drew Brees, $10,000,000

3-Year Total: $40,500,000

Analysis:
As you assess Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel’s contract, you have to compare his contract to his peers, who have also been awarded long-term franchise quarterback contracts with very little track record as an NFL starting quarterback. The most recent examples are Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Dallas quarterback Tony Romo. Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson could be considered in this peer group, but because his deal was only a 3-year contract we’ll exclude him from this analysis.

At the high end of this specific market (from an Average Per Year perspective) is Rodgers, who, relative to this market, was the most inexperienced when he signed his contract. Prior to signing his franchise quarterback contract in November of 2008, Rodgers had only eight career starts (all of them in 2008). Despite this fact, the Packers were so sold on the future of Rodgers that they signed him to a seven-year contract with five new years at an average new money per year of $12,264,000. Rodgers’ guarantee per new year was $4,000,000 (total guarantee was $20,000,000), and his 3-Year Total was $28,000,000. Comparatively, despite a lower Average Per Year, Cassel received a higher total guarantee per year $4,625,333 (as well as a higher total guarantee of $27,750,000). Cassel also surpassed Rodgers’ contract in 3-Year total with $30,500,000 versus $28,000,000 and percentage of the total value guaranteed, 44% versus 33%.

The most lucrative contract of this peer group from a guarantee standpoint is that of Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo; however, Cassel’s contract is fairly similar when you compare the metrics. Prior to signing his franchise quarterback contract, Romo had 17 career starts under his belt. In October of 2007, Romo signed a seven-year contract with six new years. Romo’s average new money per year is $11,250,000, his guarantee per new year is $4,882,353, his Three-Year total is $31,000,000, and the percentage of the total value that was guaranteed was 43 percent. Comparing Cassel in these same metrics, Cassel surpasses Romo in percentage of total value guaranteed, 44 percent versus 43 percent, and Three-Year total, $40,500,000 versus $31,000,000. However, Cassel is slightly lower than Romo in guarantee per year ($4,882,353 versus $4,625,333)and is slightly lower in average per year, $11,250,000 versus $10,500,000. So is Cassel the next Tony Romo? According to his contract, the expectation is for him to be pretty darn close.

The next group of quarterbacks in line for franchise quarterback contracts are New York quarterback Eli Manning and San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers, but their contracts are going to be in another stratosphere from those signed by Cassel, Rodgers, and Romo, as these two quarterback are significantly more accomplished than the peer group analyzed here (Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler could also be in line for a significant extension if his productivity continues in Chicago as it was in Denver). However, Washington quarterback Jason Campbell and Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards, if they prove they’re worthy of a long-term deal, could potentially be in the same ball park as Cassel, Romo, and Rodgers.

[Micjones]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Without some evidence of success, I think a players pay only increases minimally.

Without improvement in performance, that $60M contract might raise to $65M over two years.

Then by today's standards both Romo and Rodgers' contracts, already richer than the one Cassel has, both increase (to $72.5M and $70M respectively). And it makes this discussion about whether or not Cassel should be performing like Romo/Rodgers a little less fitting.

All the same...He needs to improve. Significantly.

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by truebigdog

Reading comprehension is a bitch for some folks I guess:

Rodgers wasn't a top 5 QB (he had 8 starts) when he signed that contract and Romo (17 starts) wasnt exactly a franchise QB when he signed his either.

IF Cassel comes around then his contract makes him a steal, if he doesn't it's not going to cost us the entire future to DX his ass.

That is the way I read it.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Damn . I buy lotto tickets praying for a 4 mil payout. And Cassel sucks!

[Marcellus]

Before the draft I stated many times that I was concerned about drafting a QB at #4 because of the $ it would cost and I wasn't really sold on any of the QB's at the top of the draft. (Still not).

I was told over and over why the hell should I care it's not my $ and we have the cap room. Now the $ is one of the things being thrown around to claim Cassel is a huge failure.

So I have to ask, why do you give a shit about the $, it's not yours and we have plenty of cap room.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Before the draft I stated many times that I was concerned about drafting a QB at #4 because of the $ it would cost and I wasn't really sold on any of the QB's at the top of the draft. (Still not).

I was told over and over why the hell should I care it's not my $ and we have the cap room. Now the $ is one of the things being thrown around to claim Cassel is a huge failure.

So I have to ask, why do you give a shit about the $, it's not yours and we have plenty of cap room.

In the draft you're paying the slot, that isn't quite the same as choosing to pay a guy the cash then finding out he's not that good.

[seaofred]

Quick question for you guys... What were Romo's stats when he signed his deal? What were Rodgers stats when he signed his deal? What were Cassel's stats when he signed his deal?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Mecca

In the draft you're paying the slot, that isn't quite the same as choosing to pay a guy the cash then finding out he's not that good.

There is no difference when the argument is it's not your $ why worry about it.

[el borracho]

Originally Posted by Christofire

Here's what really sucks: Let's say Cassel plays out of his mind the next two years -- 4,000 yards, 30 TDs, 9 INTs, with 10+ wins each year. Aren't the chances of him playing out this contract slim? I mean, if he did, and he continues to play out of his mind we'd be getting a deal and Pioli would look like a genius.

Oh, I don't think you have to worry about that.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Before the draft I stated many times that I was concerned about drafting a QB at #4 because of the $ it would cost and I wasn't really sold on any of the QB's at the top of the draft. (Still not).

I was told over and over why the hell should I care it's not my $ and we have the cap room. Now the $ is one of the things being thrown around to claim Cassel is a huge failure.

So I have to ask, why do you give a shit about the $, it's not yours and we have plenty of cap room.

Cassel+Jackson=120 million

#3+#34 pick=65-70 million.

[rtmike]

Has to be an old article. Eli signed an extension last year AFAIK.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Cassel+Jackson=120 million

#3+#34 pick=65-70 million.

Facepalm all you want it doesn't change my point. Nobody cared about $ before the draft, now its an issue, that's hypocritical.

According to many here, the $ shouldn't be a concern paying an unproven QB. Well we got a guy and paid him a bunch of $, why is $ an issue now?

The real issue is with the player, stick to that and don't fret about the $ and use it a platform to complain. It's a 2 year deal if he bombs next year.

[Chiefaholic]

I hope to GOD that Cassel plays to his potential and takes this team to the Superbowl. This fanbase has too much of the "1 and done" criteria when determining a players potential.

[Extra Point]

Only $520,000 per dropped pass!

[brophog]

Any such analysis is flawed unless you compare it relative to the salary cap due to the cap's phenomenal growth in the last decade.

The growth rate of the salary cap coupled with mandatory player pay increases per annum makes any comparisons problematic without standardization of currency value per the salary cap of the time of contract resolution.

This phenomenon is the source of an array of perceived salary cap discrepancies, both in the veteran pool and the rookie pool.

[Tits McGee]

Jesus...