Chiefs Mellinger: Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver his best season - Page 3

**DaFace** · 09-11-2015, 01:39 PM

Though I know this thread will undoubtedly turn into yet another Alex Smith sucks bitch fest, I thought this was a well-thought-out and reasonable take on the entire Alex Smith situation.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...#storylink=cpy

Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver the best season of his career
BY SAM MELLINGER
smellinger@kcstar.com

Alex Smith can thank the position he plays and the Royals’ run to last year’s World Series, because by now there is no question that his name is the easiest way to start an argument in Kansas City.

Smith is the Chiefs’ quarterback, and three years into his time here, he understands the baggage that comes with that title. He is the eighth backup from somewhere else to start for the Chiefs in the 37 years since they won a game with a quarterback they drafted. He is, depending on how you do the math, the sixth primary quarterback in the 21 years since the Chiefs won a game in the playoffs.

There are those of us who think Smith is a good quarterback. Not great, mind you, but smart and talented in ways that can be accentuated with the right pieces around him.

And there are those of you who think Smith is a noodle-armed, overly risk-averse anvil with a fittingly dull name — a dud at the most important position in American sports.

Those of us on Team Alex like to talk nuance, and bring up the fact that he was drafted by the NFL’s equivalent of the 2005 Royals, a franchise that gave him six coordinators and a botched shoulder surgery in seven years. To us, last year with the Chiefs, Smith showed only that it’s hard to play quarterback when the offensive line often resembles a grade-school game of red rover.

Those of you on the other side are beyond sick of all of that, wondering what excuses we’ll come up with now that Smith is surrounded by a dynamic set of playmakers, an improved (if still suspect) line, and (finally) the same coaches for a third straight year.

And, well … on that point we have no comeback. This is an important year for Smith, and for those of us who believe he has the goods.

If Smith does not have the best year of his career, something has gone wrong. If Smith does not have the best year of his career, and Jeremy Maclin has not suffered an injury and the offensive line is better than a year ago, then something has gone wrong with Smith.

A huge chunk of the Chiefs’ success depends on that not happening.

A huge chunk of their success depends on Smith proving he is more than a guy good enough to almost win with.

-----

Alex Smith is about to have the best of his 10 seasons in the NFL because, finally, the context is right.

He should’ve never been the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. We know that now, and not just because Aaron Rodgers was the second quarterback taken. Smith wasn’t ready. Wasn’t particularly close to ready.

He wasn’t even 21 years old when the 49ers gave him the keys to their disoriented franchise. More reporters covered his first NFL practice than all but his last college game, and the experience spooked him. He admits that now. Says it took years — four, five, maybe more — to get past.

That’s on him. This is where the blame game heats up, so that’s important to say. Smith is not in a position to complain here. He is 31 years old and has been paid well over $60 million during a career that has so far included a 1-2 playoff record. The 49ers should’ve given Smith more support, but he should’ve been better, too.

There have been successes and failures, and he owns the quarterback’s responsibility for both. But he has never been in a position this teed up for success. Not even those last few seasons in San Francisco, when he came within a freak special-teams mistake of the Super Bowl one year and the next season was benched after returning from a concussion despite leading the league in completion percentage.

In Smith’s first five seasons in San Francisco, he needed a competent organization. In his last two seasons there, he needed one that believed in him.

Here, finally, he has both.

This is why some of us believe he is about to have the best season of his career.

-----

Smith’s strengths are mostly subtle and widely misunderstood. He brings an element of certainty in a game defined by chaos. His quick feet, good instincts on when to break the pocket, and knack for avoiding the hardest collisions are particularly helpful as the Chiefs try to sort out the offensive line.

Game manager has become an overused and somewhat ambiguous term in football, but part of what makes evaluating Smith difficult is that there are not a lot of plays on either extreme. For the most part, he does not throw the boneheaded interception. For the most part, he does not create touchdowns from his own awesomeness. He is more Muzak than Metallica.

But the strengths are there, and not just in the sense that — particularly with Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin and a potentially great defense — avoiding mistakes is a terrific thing.

There was a play last year in Arizona, where Smith ran away from a sack, creating extra time, and threw on the run into a window that hadn’t yet opened. The play probably should’ve been a 6-yard loss. It was a 29-yard gain. It was a terrific play, brilliantly executed, and symbolic in its subtlety.

The window does not exist when Smith makes this pass. pic.twitter.com/mAO8R2l9uH
— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

But Smith’s biggest strength is accuracy. At the wonderful Pro Football Focus, they calculate accuracy percentage by taking away drops, spikes, and throw-aways. In their calculations, Smith was at 79.8 percent last season, behind only Drew Brees.

Now, some of that, yes, is a lack of downfield passing. No quarterback threw deep less often than Smith last year. It is an acknowledged point of improvement, both by Smith and Reid.

This is where those of us who believe in Smith are on the hook this year. Because a large part of believing in Smith means believing that his hesitancy to throw deep is at least as much about what he’s been surrounded by.

It’s not just about the offensive line — you need time to throw deep. It’s also about the receivers. Smith has not had receivers capable of getting open down the field, or receivers he fully trusts.

It’s interesting that when Jason Avant signed with the Chiefs late last season, Smith seemed to trust him immediately. Avant is a respected veteran, but he was also cut by the Panthers and turned 32 this year. Still, Smith took chances with Avant that he had not taken before.

A risky deep ball, because Smith trusts the guy he's throwing to. pic.twitter.com/lSiuBaN5at
— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

There are reasons to believe that Maclin can have a much bigger impact. Training camp, practices, and preseason games have been full of examples of Smith focusing on Maclin. Smith seems willing to make throws to Maclin that he hasn’t made to anyone in Kansas City.

Here's a touchdown that didn't exist last year, because Smith didn't have a receiver good enough to make this play. pic.twitter.com/6o8TqyoWxV
— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

This is just practice and practice games, of course, so the consequences of failure are negligible. But common sense lines up with what we’ve seen.

Smith is conservative by nature, and he’s not all of the sudden turning into Brett Favre. But he doesn’t need to. The Chiefs don’t want that. They just need him to be willing to gamble a little more knowing he has better cards and a better understanding of what’s around him than at any point in his career.

Which is why this has to be the year.

-----

One of the problems with the argument about Alex Smith is that, like most arguments in politics and marriage, we all tend to cherry pick points without really listening to the other side.

But one of the tenets of Team Alex is a recognition of the reality that he is the best the Chiefs can do. He is not Aaron Rodgers, but he is not Matt Cassel, either. If the Chiefs had the first pick in 2012, instead of 2013, Smith would be somewhere else and Kansas City would be obsessed with Andrew Luck.

But, like a B student who has to study a little harder on the SAT, teams without that top-tier franchise quarterback have to work a little harder on the rest of the roster. In that way, Smith is in the best position of his career.

Assuming the offensive line is improved, there is more than enough around Smith for him to shake the notion that he is holding back the bigger cause. Those of us on his side of Kansas City’s biggest sports debate are counting on that.

If it doesn’t happen this year, we’re all out of excuses.

Why Not? · 09-11-2015, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I'm not throwing stones, I legitimately want to know because I respect your opinion, but where are you at on injuries?

Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, a myriad of other dudes missing serious time changes the equation significantly. Worst case scenario, Charles goes down, misses 8 games, and the narrative is that Alex didn't have his best weapon. Where does your evaluation of him stand then?

I'm not speaking for DJ'sLN here, but my opinion would be that the narrative on Alex wouldn't change at all. Sure, the win total would, but not his ability to win or lose more games. Since, as far as I know, there's not a stat like WAR for football, let's say Jamaal is worth 4 wins(the Chiefs will win 4 games with him that they lose with Davis or West as the bell cow). So if we're using 11 wins as our base, let's say with JC out(please no, not again), the Chiefs are a 7 win team. I think the point he is making is that Alex will go out and win you those 7 games. He won't win 10, he won't win 5. He'll keep the needle right in the middle.

O.city · 09-11-2015, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

If the winning isn't sustainable, then it's the wrong way to win. 2013 was a great example of that. The defense put up an all-world performance and then stopped doing it. Alex Smith then became a different QB.

The question I keep asking is, why does Alex wait or his defense to suck to step up as a QB? If we're treating this as a "put up or shut up" year for Alex, I don't consider it success if we're winning too many games the wrong way. That is, games where we shit the bed on third downs and in a close game, our offense keeps going 3 and out in the 4th quarter and relies on our defense to make stop after stop. Even if we win games that way, that doesn't make me at all confident that Smith is the right QB.

I dont really care much about winning pretty, but the offense has to be better.

jonzie04 · 09-11-2015, 04:21 PM

I'm guessing 4000, 27, 14 for Alex this season.

He basically went for 3500 the past two seasons if you add in his per game average and account for the 2 games he missed. Thats around 30 more yards per game. I think Maclin, Dat, and Wilson will go a long ways in getting him that simply through YAC. I think Alex is a little more aggressive this year and it leads to a little more touchdowns, but a lot more picks.

**BossChief** · 09-11-2015, 04:32 PM

Counting rushing yards, I see him having a 3800-4000 yard season....7.6ypa...68%comp...29tds (combined rushing and passing)...9ints

**BigMeatballDave** · 09-11-2015, 04:34 PM

10,000/60/0

Suck it, haters!

**BigMeatballDave** · 09-11-2015, 04:35 PM

Seriously: 3800/25/8

**Mav** · 09-11-2015, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

Not sure, though I found this:

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl...le3450988.html

Tough to say what was "botched," but that definitely seems odd to be out for an entire season due to a shoulder injury.

What makes it botched is Alex was legit hurt. Mike Nolan called him out for not being tough so Alex went back out destroyed his shoulder and missed all of 2008 because mile Nolan is a walking dick wad.

Admittedly I left out the wire in his shoulder. Whoops.

**BossChief** · 09-11-2015, 04:43 PM

Also, it's quite nice hearing an extraordinary writer bringing up points that I've been harping about since we signed Maclin.

It's all about trust with Alex.

For him to target you, you need to

1) be trusted to know your job/ where to line up
2) be trusted to run routes effective enough to gain separation
3) be trusted enough to be on the same page with him on route adjustments
4) be trusted enough to make the catch consistently and make the play
5) be trusted that you're not going to hang Alex out to dry after he gets you the ball.

Seriously, it's all about trust for the guy.

That's why Albert Wilson, Jason Avant and Deanthony Thomas had no problem getting targets during the last month of the season. Alex trusted them.

I wish the search function worked so I could look for the thread I was going on about trusting his receivers, there was some gold in that thread/those threads...it seems Sam read them and has agreed with them and has done an amazing job expanding on those thoughts and hit it out of the park with this article.

Chiefs4TheWin · 09-11-2015, 04:50 PM

Alex Smith is not the greatest QB to walk the earth that's for sure, but I never heard him make an excuse for himself ever. I will give him that.

Sandy Vagina · 09-11-2015, 05:09 PM

This is as far as I needed to read.

Quote:

If Smith does not have the best year of his career, and Jeremy Maclin has not suffered an injury and the offensive line is better than a year ago, then something has gone wrong with Smith.

Yep.

RobBlake · 09-11-2015, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefs4TheWin

Alex Smith is not the greatest QB to walk the earth that's for sure, but I never heard him make an excuse for himself ever. I will give him that.

he played for a franchise that once belittled him, his own coach called him a pussy in front of his peers, messed up his throwing arm, etc and still decided to re-sign with them because he wanted to win. The guy doesn't make excuses.

**mdchiefsfan** · 09-11-2015, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Good article. Mellinger has been putting out some decent pieces lately.

Although, it is pretty obvious he reads the planet

Exactly what I was thinking: I've read this somewhere before.

temper11 · 09-11-2015, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobBlake

he played for a franchise that once belittled him, his own coach called him a pussy in front of his peers, messed up his throwing arm, etc and still decided to re-sign with them because he wanted to win. The guy doesn't make excuses.

This. One of the main reason why I continue to follow his career - I want to see him rewarded for being class.

temper11 · 09-11-2015, 05:23 PM

Good luck all this weekend. I hope you are all here celebrating a Chiefs win on Monday.

**mdchiefsfan** · 09-11-2015, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

Seriously: 3800/25/8

I'm thinking around 3,500 yards; I agree with 25/8.

09-11-2015, 01:39 PM
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $526899	Mellinger: Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver his best season Though I know this thread will undoubtedly turn into yet another Alex Smith sucks bitch fest, I thought this was a well-thought-out and reasonable take on the entire Alex Smith situation. http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...#storylink=cpy Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver the best season of his career BY SAM MELLINGER smellinger@kcstar.com Alex Smith can thank the position he plays and the Royals’ run to last year’s World Series, because by now there is no question that his name is the easiest way to start an argument in Kansas City. Smith is the Chiefs’ quarterback, and three years into his time here, he understands the baggage that comes with that title. He is the eighth backup from somewhere else to start for the Chiefs in the 37 years since they won a game with a quarterback they drafted. He is, depending on how you do the math, the sixth primary quarterback in the 21 years since the Chiefs won a game in the playoffs. There are those of us who think Smith is a good quarterback. Not great, mind you, but smart and talented in ways that can be accentuated with the right pieces around him. And there are those of you who think Smith is a noodle-armed, overly risk-averse anvil with a fittingly dull name — a dud at the most important position in American sports. Those of us on Team Alex like to talk nuance, and bring up the fact that he was drafted by the NFL’s equivalent of the 2005 Royals, a franchise that gave him six coordinators and a botched shoulder surgery in seven years. To us, last year with the Chiefs, Smith showed only that it’s hard to play quarterback when the offensive line often resembles a grade-school game of red rover. Those of you on the other side are beyond sick of all of that, wondering what excuses we’ll come up with now that Smith is surrounded by a dynamic set of playmakers, an improved (if still suspect) line, and (finally) the same coaches for a third straight year. And, well … on that point we have no comeback. This is an important year for Smith, and for those of us who believe he has the goods. If Smith does not have the best year of his career, something has gone wrong. If Smith does not have the best year of his career, and Jeremy Maclin has not suffered an injury and the offensive line is better than a year ago, then something has gone wrong with Smith. A huge chunk of the Chiefs’ success depends on that not happening. A huge chunk of their success depends on Smith proving he is more than a guy good enough to almost win with. ----- Alex Smith is about to have the best of his 10 seasons in the NFL because, finally, the context is right. He should’ve never been the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. We know that now, and not just because Aaron Rodgers was the second quarterback taken. Smith wasn’t ready. Wasn’t particularly close to ready. He wasn’t even 21 years old when the 49ers gave him the keys to their disoriented franchise. More reporters covered his first NFL practice than all but his last college game, and the experience spooked him. He admits that now. Says it took years — four, five, maybe more — to get past. That’s on him. This is where the blame game heats up, so that’s important to say. Smith is not in a position to complain here. He is 31 years old and has been paid well over $60 million during a career that has so far included a 1-2 playoff record. The 49ers should’ve given Smith more support, but he should’ve been better, too. There have been successes and failures, and he owns the quarterback’s responsibility for both. But he has never been in a position this teed up for success. Not even those last few seasons in San Francisco, when he came within a freak special-teams mistake of the Super Bowl one year and the next season was benched after returning from a concussion despite leading the league in completion percentage. In Smith’s first five seasons in San Francisco, he needed a competent organization. In his last two seasons there, he needed one that believed in him. Here, finally, he has both. This is why some of us believe he is about to have the best season of his career. ----- Smith’s strengths are mostly subtle and widely misunderstood. He brings an element of certainty in a game defined by chaos. His quick feet, good instincts on when to break the pocket, and knack for avoiding the hardest collisions are particularly helpful as the Chiefs try to sort out the offensive line. Game manager has become an overused and somewhat ambiguous term in football, but part of what makes evaluating Smith difficult is that there are not a lot of plays on either extreme. For the most part, he does not throw the boneheaded interception. For the most part, he does not create touchdowns from his own awesomeness. He is more Muzak than Metallica. But the strengths are there, and not just in the sense that — particularly with Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin and a potentially great defense — avoiding mistakes is a terrific thing. There was a play last year in Arizona, where Smith ran away from a sack, creating extra time, and threw on the run into a window that hadn’t yet opened. The play probably should’ve been a 6-yard loss. It was a 29-yard gain. It was a terrific play, brilliantly executed, and symbolic in its subtlety. The window does not exist when Smith makes this pass. pic.twitter.com/mAO8R2l9uH — KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015 But Smith’s biggest strength is accuracy. At the wonderful Pro Football Focus, they calculate accuracy percentage by taking away drops, spikes, and throw-aways. In their calculations, Smith was at 79.8 percent last season, behind only Drew Brees. Now, some of that, yes, is a lack of downfield passing. No quarterback threw deep less often than Smith last year. It is an acknowledged point of improvement, both by Smith and Reid. This is where those of us who believe in Smith are on the hook this year. Because a large part of believing in Smith means believing that his hesitancy to throw deep is at least as much about what he’s been surrounded by. It’s not just about the offensive line — you need time to throw deep. It’s also about the receivers. Smith has not had receivers capable of getting open down the field, or receivers he fully trusts. It’s interesting that when Jason Avant signed with the Chiefs late last season, Smith seemed to trust him immediately. Avant is a respected veteran, but he was also cut by the Panthers and turned 32 this year. Still, Smith took chances with Avant that he had not taken before. A risky deep ball, because Smith trusts the guy he's throwing to. pic.twitter.com/lSiuBaN5at — KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015 There are reasons to believe that Maclin can have a much bigger impact. Training camp, practices, and preseason games have been full of examples of Smith focusing on Maclin. Smith seems willing to make throws to Maclin that he hasn’t made to anyone in Kansas City. Here's a touchdown that didn't exist last year, because Smith didn't have a receiver good enough to make this play. pic.twitter.com/6o8TqyoWxV — KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015 This is just practice and practice games, of course, so the consequences of failure are negligible. But common sense lines up with what we’ve seen. Smith is conservative by nature, and he’s not all of the sudden turning into Brett Favre. But he doesn’t need to. The Chiefs don’t want that. They just need him to be willing to gamble a little more knowing he has better cards and a better understanding of what’s around him than at any point in his career. Which is why this has to be the year. ----- One of the problems with the argument about Alex Smith is that, like most arguments in politics and marriage, we all tend to cherry pick points without really listening to the other side. But one of the tenets of Team Alex is a recognition of the reality that he is the best the Chiefs can do. He is not Aaron Rodgers, but he is not Matt Cassel, either. If the Chiefs had the first pick in 2012, instead of 2013, Smith would be somewhere else and Kansas City would be obsessed with Andrew Luck. But, like a B student who has to study a little harder on the SAT, teams without that top-tier franchise quarterback have to work a little harder on the rest of the roster. In that way, Smith is in the best position of his career. Assuming the offensive line is improved, there is more than enough around Smith for him to shake the notion that he is holding back the bigger cause. Those of us on his side of Kansas City’s biggest sports debate are counting on that. If it doesn’t happen this year, we’re all out of excuses.
Posts: 52,332

09-11-2015, 04:21 PM	#33
jonzie04 MVP Join Date: Feb 2014 Casino cash: $5716817	I'm guessing 4000, 27, 14 for Alex this season. He basically went for 3500 the past two seasons if you add in his per game average and account for the 2 games he missed. Thats around 30 more yards per game. I think Maclin, Dat, and Wilson will go a long ways in getting him that simply through YAC. I think Alex is a little more aggressive this year and it leads to a little more touchdowns, but a lot more picks. __________________ 2015 Adopt A chief : Marcus Peters
Posts: 6,779

09-11-2015, 04:32 PM	#34
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $474088	Counting rushing yards, I see him having a 3800-4000 yard season....7.6ypa...68%comp...29tds (combined rushing and passing)...9ints __________________ Dreams do come true... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1407
Posts: 47,399

09-11-2015, 04:34 PM	#35
BigMeatballDave GBM 8-12-15 Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Dayton, Oh. Casino cash: $10052154	10,000/60/0 Suck it, haters! __________________ 2015 Adopt-a-Chief: Tamba Hali
Posts: 59,997

09-11-2015, 04:35 PM	#36
BigMeatballDave GBM 8-12-15 Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Dayton, Oh. Casino cash: $10052154	Seriously: 3800/25/8 __________________ 2015 Adopt-a-Chief: Tamba Hali
Posts: 59,997

09-11-2015, 04:43 PM	#38
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $474088	Also, it's quite nice hearing an extraordinary writer bringing up points that I've been harping about since we signed Maclin. It's all about trust with Alex. For him to target you, you need to 1) be trusted to know your job/ where to line up 2) be trusted to run routes effective enough to gain separation 3) be trusted enough to be on the same page with him on route adjustments 4) be trusted enough to make the catch consistently and make the play 5) be trusted that you're not going to hang Alex out to dry after he gets you the ball. Seriously, it's all about trust for the guy. That's why Albert Wilson, Jason Avant and Deanthony Thomas had no problem getting targets during the last month of the season. Alex trusted them. I wish the search function worked so I could look for the thread I was going on about trusting his receivers, there was some gold in that thread/those threads...it seems Sam read them and has agreed with them and has done an amazing job expanding on those thoughts and hit it out of the park with this article. __________________ Dreams do come true... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1407
Posts: 47,399

09-11-2015, 04:50 PM	#39
Chiefs4TheWin Veteran Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Hollidaysburg, PA Casino cash: $2922783	Alex Smith is not the greatest QB to walk the earth that's for sure, but I never heard him make an excuse for himself ever. I will give him that.
Posts: 4,196

09-11-2015, 05:23 PM	#44
temper11 Veteran Join Date: Nov 2013 Casino cash: $10014156	Good luck all this weekend. I hope you are all here celebrating a Chiefs win on Monday. __________________ **disclaimer. Nothing in this post was meant to offend, or in any way slander the good people of Kansas City or the obviously passionate fans of the KC Chiefs.
Posts: 2,763