*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Rasputin]

Strike outs are your friend Duffy try get one out with strikes.

[BWillie]

@McCulloughStar: Bubba Starling bruised his knee colliding w/ an OF wall last night, but KC does not expect him to miss much time. He could play tonight.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Any update on Starlings injury?

Vance Wilson is calling it a bruised knee and comparing it to a catcher taking a foul tip.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Brainiac

I've seen this argument many times over the years. It's a completely bogus and meaningless argument. It's no more than wishful thinking on the part of the fans of the team currently in the lead.

A hot week or two by the second place team combined with a slump by the first place team, and the argument is easily and completely proven to be false.

And I don't have to go back very far to find an example of how bad this argument is. On July 1st the standings in the AL West looked like this:

Team..........W......L.......%.....GB
Astros.........47....34......580....--
Angels.........41....38......519...5.0

You could have easily said this about the AL West race on July 1st:



These are the standings of the AL West this morning:

Team..........W......L.......%.....GB
Angels.........50....40......556....--
Astros.........50....43......538...1.5

How's that argument looking now? It took a little more than 2 weeks for the Angels to turn a 5 game deficit into a 1.5 game lead.

An argument based strictly upon winning percentages for the rest of the season when almost half a season remains to be played is totally meaningless and easily disproven.

So your argument is something could happen? What a revelation. The fact is the numbers and teams involved tell us there is a very slight chance they catch us. Not enough of a chance to worry about them.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Its things like that which make me answer "the White Sox" when someone asks me if I have a MLB team that I hate.

I consider them to be our only rival. I don't really care that much about the other 3 teams other than the importance of winning a division game, but when the Royals beat Chicago, the sun seems to shine a little brighter.

Yeah, I've always been pretty neutral when it's come to other teams in our division except the White Sox.

Sure, from year to year there might be a team I dislike, but that doesn't carry over to the organization just in general.

The A's are starting to make a case for me not liking their organization, but that has been in part by their fans over the last couple of years. Lately, it seems like a lot more of their fanbase acts like your typical Raiders fan.

Still, the only team I pretty much hate is the White Sox. Cardinals might be up there, but a major part of that is a large contingent of their fans are insufferable. Thankfully, there aren't many like that that frequent CP.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

So your argument is something could happen? What a revelation. The fact is the numbers and teams involved tell us there is a very slight chance they catch us. Not enough of a chance to worry about them.

What? It could and does happen. Often. You're acting like its impossible to make up a 5 game deficit with 75+ games to go.
Posted via Mobile Device

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by -King-

What? It could and does happen. Often. You're acting like its impossible to make up a 5 game deficit with 75+ games to go.
Posted via Mobile Device

Agreed. Seems something like this happens every year. Team choking away leads the last month even.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

It appears Miguel Sano injured his ankle during warmups and is on crutches.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Not really. He's a good No. 2 type starter. Not quite an ace, but a very good pitcher. He'd improve the rotation... unless he collapses like he did last season in the second half.



Escobar also is still playing through that knee injury he sustained when Brett Lawrie acted like himself (AKA a dirty piece of shit). He hasn't run the same for most of the year (just look at his SB totals) and really has been picking his spots to turn it on.

I've got no problem with him taking it easy on a routine grounder to first.

I think we can all agree that the guys on this team are not loafing it on plays really ever with the exception of Rios.

Most times this has been brought up on plays in question is when guys have some type of injury and are being smart about not aggravating it more on a worthless play.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

So your argument is something could happen? What a revelation. The fact is the numbers and teams involved tell us there is a very slight chance they catch us. Not enough of a chance to worry about them.

I can't believe you decided to double down on your ridiculous argument. History shows how ridiculous your argument it.

1. The 1978 Red Sox led by 14 games in July. They came in second.
2. The 1951 Dodgers led by 13.5 games in August. They came in second.
3. The 1995 Angels led by 11 games in August. They came in second.
4. The 1969 Cubs led by 9.5 games in August. They came in second.
5. The 1942 Dodgers led by 10 games with 51 to play. They came in second.
6. The 2007 Mets blew a 7 game lead with 17 to play. They came in second.
7. The 2008 Mets blew a 3.5 game lead with 17 to play. They came in second.
8. The 2009 Tigers had a 7 gamed lead in September and a 3 game lead with 4 to play. They came in second.
9. The 1987 Blue jays blew a 3.5 game lead with 7 to play. They came in second.
10. The 1964 Phillies blew a 6.5 game lead with 12 to play. They came in second.
11. The 1962 Dodgers blew a 4 game lead with 13 to play. They came in second.
12. The 1938 Pirates had a 7 game lead in September. They came in second.
13. The 1934 Giants had a 7 game lead in September. They came in second.
14. The 1914 Giants had a 7.5 game lead in July. They came in second.

It's extremely premature to say Royals fans have nothing to worry about because they have a 5 game lead with nearly half of a season to play. It's fine to be confident and to say you like the Royals' chances, but it's silly to say there is nothing to worry about.

[Lex Luthor]

Of course, it did take all of 30 seconds to find 14 examples. Not enough of a chance to worry about.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not living in terror that the Royals are going to blow it. I think they WILL win the division, and I think they have a pretty good chance to return to the World Series. I just think it's idiotic to suggest that ANY team that has a 5 game lead in July has it wrapped up because the chances are remote that they can be caught, especially when the ONLY thing the "analysis" is based upon is the records of the teams involved and the number of games left to play. In July.

[Saul Good]

Yeah. 5 games up in mid July isn't huge by any means.

[Lex Luthor]

Watching Duffy pitch today reinforces my opinion that it would be STUPID to trade him for 3 months of Johnny Cueto.

[Hootie]

Trading Duffy is a no brainer. Problem is, he's not nearly as valuable as this board thinks

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Trading Duffy is a no brainer. Problem is, he's not nearly as valuable as this board thinks

Yeah, we know you think that. If you could get 3 months of Cueto WITHOUT giving up Duffy, that would be a different matter altogether. But the Delta between Duffy and Cueto isn't worth 2 more years of Duffy.

[Hootie]

I'm sure Christian Colon straight up would do the trick !