Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 31

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

Lex Luthor · 07-19-2015, 01:55 PM

If only the Royals had a pitcher who could match up with somebody like Chris Sale.

If only.

By the way, since Duffy has returned from the DL, hitters are 1 for 23 with runners in scoring position. He's a lot more valuable than Hootie thinks.

Lex Luthor · 07-19-2015, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I'm sure Christian Colon straight up would do the trick !

Trading Duffy for 3 months of Cueto would be like drafting Christian Colon instead of Chris Sale. We would regret that decision for YEARS.

milkman · 07-19-2015, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brainiac

If only the Royals had a pitcher who could match up with somebody like Chris Sale.

If only.

By the way, since Duffy has returned from the DL, hitters are 1 for 23 with runners in scoring position. He's a lot more valuable than Hootie thinks.

Duffy is 26?

If you knew that this Danny Duffy would show up game in and game out through an entire season, through several seasons, his value would be unquestioned.

The problem is, you can't be sure that you will get this Duffy.

**lewdog** · 07-19-2015, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brainiac

If only the Royals had a pitcher who could match up with somebody like Chris Sale.

I guess you forgot the first part of the season?

Lex Luthor · 07-19-2015, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

Duffy is 26?

If you knew that this Danny Duffy would show up game in and game out through an entire season, through several seasons, his value would be unquestioned.

The problem is, you can't be sure that you will get this Duffy.

I don't disagree with that at all. But some guys on this board act like Duffy is garbage.

**Saul Good** · 07-19-2015, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brainiac

Trading Duffy for 3 months of Cueto would be like drafting Christian Colon instead of Chris Sale. We would regret that decision for YEARS.

Like 2 years? That's all he's signed for.

Pitt Gorilla · 07-19-2015, 02:01 PM

Duffy is out pitching sale.

Lex Luthor · 07-19-2015, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

I guess you forgot the first part of the season?

I was really just talking about today, trying to make a point with the Hootster.

Lex Luthor · 07-19-2015, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Like 2 years? That's all he's signed for.

There's a very good chance Duffy is a Royal for much longer than that, unless you trade him for 3 months of Cueto.

kstater · 07-19-2015, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brainiac

I don't disagree with that at all. But some guys on this board act like Duffy is garbage.

There is literally no one here that says that he doesn't have good stuff. It's the return he'd get over the inconsistency he brings that is what's debating. Duffy is a headcase half the time, if he can bring someone like Cueto that brings a WS ring this year, you have to make it.

**lewdog** · 07-19-2015, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brainiac

I was really just talking about today, trying to make a point with the Hootster.

I can see both sides to the argument but thinking that Duffy is anything more than a gamble is short-sighted on a day he pitches well. He's always been very erratic and more valuable to a team with great defense and probably over-valued by Royals fans because of this.

BWillie · 07-19-2015, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brainiac

Yeah, we know you think that. If you could get 3 months of Cueto WITHOUT giving up Duffy, that would be a different matter altogether. But the Delta between Duffy and Cueto isn't worth 2 more years of Duffy.

It honestly makes no sense to me. For either team. Why would the Reds want Duffy anyway? They should want controllable prospects if they think they will be rebiilding the next few years not a guy already established.

Duffy coming off of 2.5 ERA, has 4.1 ERA this year without even being allowed to find his groove yet. A controllable 26 year old hard throwing lefty. And ppl want to trade him for 8 starts of Danny Cueto?

BWillie · 07-19-2015, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

I can see both sides to the argument but thinking that Duffy is anything more than a gamble is short-sighted on a day he pitches well. He's always been very erratic and more valuable to a team with great defense and probably over-valued by Royals fans because of this.

Hes still valued to us. With our good defense and park we play in strike out pitchers and "aces" are less valuable to the Royals than they would be for almost any other team

**lewdog** · 07-19-2015, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

Hes still valued to us. With our good defense and park we play in strike out pitchers and "aces" are less valuable to the Royals than they would be for almost any other team

It's the, we are 20 games above .500 in a win now mode that has people talking. Do you trust having an erratic Danny Duffy amongst other shaky starting pitching when you are playing this well for the first half of a year?

You do not know what the next few years will bring but right now, we are playing exactly like a team that can win it all. Do you trust that to your current staff?

tk13 · 07-19-2015, 02:18 PM

I think most people realize Duffy's potential. If he pitches well we probably don't need to add a starter. The reason his name keeps coming up is because we don't have that much control left over him. Losing him wouldn't be a decision we'd regret for the rest of this decade like we would Odorizzi, Zimmer, Manaea, etc.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1979692	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
Posts: 22,389

07-19-2015, 01:55 PM	#451
Lex Luthor MVP Join Date: Mar 2010 Casino cash: $10022775	If only the Royals had a pitcher who could match up with somebody like Chris Sale. If only. By the way, since Duffy has returned from the DL, hitters are 1 for 23 with runners in scoring position. He's a lot more valuable than Hootie thinks.
Posts: 16,709

07-19-2015, 02:01 PM	#457
Pitt Gorilla Banned! Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201 Casino cash: $-19806	Duffy is out pitching sale. __________________ Your son is a bench warmer because of your weak genetics not because of the coach Norlin Mommsen is disgusting.
Posts: 47,360

07-19-2015, 02:18 PM	#465
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1747500	I think most people realize Duffy's potential. If he pitches well we probably don't need to add a starter. The reason his name keeps coming up is because we don't have that much control left over him. Losing him wouldn't be a decision we'd regret for the rest of this decade like we would Odorizzi, Zimmer, Manaea, etc.
Posts: 56,653