Mizzou Basketball

[Saul Good]

MIZ-ZOU

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Mosbonian

Wait....what do you mean that the same analogy applies to any team in the tournament? Surely this applies only to MU,

The problem is that 3 pointers are much more of a lottery than anything any other kind of offense.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web..._is_a_lottery/

Oh dear. The defensive plot is just a random scattering of data, as has been discussed previously, but the offensive version isn’t much better. If you shot 45% in the first half of the 2011 conference season, you’d be expected to shoot about 35% in the second half. If you shot 25% in the first half, you’d be expected to shoot 33% in the second half. A difference you couldn’t notice with your eyes. I don’t know exactly what implications this has on strategy, but when evenly-matched teams get together, action happening beyond the 3-point line is like a lottery. You take a shot and a third of the time you have success.

Of course, there are games where good shooters get a bunch of open looks and they make more than a third of their attempts. You wouldn’t call that luck. (Although, from the offense’s perspective the shooters enjoyed some good fortune to be left open.) But in the long run, that kind of stuff evens out a lot more than I would have thought. In the end, coaches have to decide how much they want to play the lottery. Sometimes, it will be advantageous for the defense to let the offense play the lottery a bunch and sometimes it won’t. The offense has to consider the same things.

John Beilein loves to have his offense play the lottery while Roy Williams hates it. Tubby Smith is cool with opposing offenses playing scratch-off tickets, while Rick Majerus forbids it. If you’re Shaka Smart and you have to play a series of teams better than you in March, it stands to reason that you’ll be willing to play the lottery on offense all game long, six games in a row.

[Messier]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

You don't know that.

Why would they get the most favorable region for them when they'd be the 4th #1?

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

OK, a pretty clear delineation between ISU/Mizzou and everyone else.

I still contend that we do not rely entirely on treys. A significant percentage of our points come from layups and free throws from our guards.

Our bigger worry, is that we start chucking up more threes that miss instead of running our offense and looking for opportunities for the wide-open three or to drive for the layup or find Ricardo for the easy points.

That's what happened in AFH. It wasn't because we were missing our shots. It was because we took poor shots.

From what I've watched, it seems like the biggest difference between this MU team and previous years... they don't take as many quick/stupid shots. They seem to understand that you can have that 3 point shot from the top of the key any time you want, so don't make it the first thing you after crossing halfcourt.

But, if they struggle on offense in the tournament (and with the pressure that comes with the tournament), it'll be interesting to see how long they stick with it (not to imply they won't... just that it'll be interesting to watch ).

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

From what I've watched, it seems like the biggest difference between this MU team and previous years... they don't take as many quick/stupid shots. They seem to understand that you can have that 3 point shot from the top of the key any time you want, so don't make it the first thing you after crossing halfcourt.

But, if they struggle on offense in the tournament (and with the pressure that comes with the tournament), it'll be interesting to see how long they stick with it (not to imply they won't... just that it'll be interesting to watch ).

Yeah, that's pretty much what I just said.

That will be the key if we struggle shooting early on. We MUST stay in our offense and do what's worked all season.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Yeah, that's pretty much what I just said.

No, damnit, I want to argue!! Missouri is going to miss a layup early in the game next Friday and will start taking half court shots!!! Deal with it!

[Mosbonian]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

It's just amusing to see you guys shoot down most of what KCC posts, like he's seriously grasping at straws to make MU look bad.... he even admitted to making a mistake that only kenpom subscribers could have called him out on.

If KU has a bad shooting night, they can grind it out and win ugly... can Mizzou? It's a serious question... I've only watched a handful of their games, so I don't really know. I've seen Kansas grind it out many times... it's something I worried about with Roy, but not with Bill Self.

The part I find interesting is that you assert that KU can survive a bad shooting night. But frankly I don't agree.....can they do it better than MU because they have Robinson down low? Sure...but what happens if Robinson's malaise play like he had in the tourney continues? Then all you become is a lesser version of MU.

One thing I want to see is if Robinson's style of play gets him more fouls in the tourney. I could see an official from a conference that plays a finesse style call more fouls on Robinson....and if that happens you guys are screwed. Withey folds like a wet cardboard box when challenged (see both MU games for examples) and you have no one else down low.

What if the Tyshawn Taylor that throws the ball away and plays uncontrolled shows up again? And Elijah Johnson? Do you really want to rely on him? He is as up and down as a teeter-totter.

I can see MU's warts....and acknowledge that a team with power on the blocks is trouble for them. And all it takes is an injury/foul trouble to put MU in trouble.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

OK, a pretty clear delineation between ISU/Mizzou/OSU and everyone else.

I still contend that we do not rely entirely on treys. A significant percentage of our points come from layups and free throws from our guards.

Our bigger worry, is that we start chucking up more threes that miss instead of running our offense and looking for opportunities for the wide-open three or to drive for the layup or find Ricardo for the easy points.

That's what happened in AFH. It wasn't because we were missing our shots. It was because we took poor shots.

The problem is when you run into a team that is able to prevent some of the drives and take away Ratliffe's offense game. MU has struggled at times against the two best defensive teams they've played (KU and KSU) and there are about 10-20 teams in the tournament as good defensively as them. There's a possibility they'll be forced into hitting those jump shots and if they aren't making them, that's real trouble.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by Messier

Why would they get the most favorable region for them when they'd be the 4th #1?

1. Again, you are making assumptions. You don't know that they'd be the fourth 1 seed. There are strong arguments being made by national analysts for six teams to be 1 seeds.

2. The committee looks at geography and competitive balance for the top seeds instead of sticking to a strict S-curve. It could easily work out to putting Mizzou as a 1 seed in the Midwest if that's what works best.

[Mosbonian]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

The problem is that 3 pointers are much more of a lottery than anything any other kind of offense.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web..._is_a_lottery/

How many times have you posted this? I've read it a million times now....

So what do you do? Decide to stop shooting 3's? That insane....

If we decide to do away with 3's what do you do...build a team that is good at layups since they are the only "sure" thing?

[Mosbonian]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

The problem is when you run into a team that is able to prevent some of the drives and take away Ratliffe's offense game. MU has struggled at times against the two best defensive teams they've played (KU and KSU) and there are about 10-20 teams in the tournament as good defensively as them. There's a possibility they'll be forced into hitting those jump shots and if they aren't making them, that's real trouble.

So let me ask you...what does KU do if Robinson get's into foul problems? That completely changes KU's strength.....

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Mosbonian

How many times have you posted this? I've read it a million times now....

It's the 2nd time, I think. It is relevant to what you were saying, though, so I'm not understanding the problem.

So what do you do? Decide to stop shooting 3's? That insane....

If we decide to do away with 3's what do you do...build a team that is good at layups since they are the only "sure" thing?

No, you don't decide to change your entire offense. I'm just explaining to you why teams that shoot a lot of jump shots are at risk. If they have a bad shooting game, there is little to fall back on.

[Messier]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

1. Again, you are making assumptions. You don't know that they'd be the fourth 1 seed. There are strong arguments being made by national analysts for six teams to be 1 seeds.

2. The committee looks at geography and competitive balance for the top seeds instead of sticking to a strict S-curve. It could easily work out to putting Mizzou as a 1 seed in the Midwest if that's what works best.

Most are talking about them as a 2. You think they'll be the 1st, 2nd or 3rd #1. I don't. You're right, I'm assuming, but it's a pretty logical assumption.

So they ignore how far a team is from home? They know it'd be a competitive advantage for MU to be in St. Louis. They take it all into consideration.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Mosbonian

So let me ask you...what does KU do if Robinson get's into foul problems? That completely changes KU's strength.....

They probably lose. But he doesn't play defense at all, so he really shouldn't get into foul trouble. If he does, it will have been because he made a few stupid plays.

[Mosbonian]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

The problem is when you run into a team that is able to prevent some of the drives and take away Ratliffe's offense game. MU has struggled at times against the two best defensive teams they've played (KU and KSU) and there are about 10-20 teams in the tournament as good defensively as them. There's a possibility they'll be forced into hitting those jump shots and if they aren't making them, that's real trouble.

The only team they really struggled with was KSU....they had our number. We were in both games with KU so you can't say we struggled. If we had lost by 15 then I could buy your assertion.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by Messier

Most are talking about them as a 2. You think they'll be the 1st, 2nd or 3rd #1. I don't. You're right, I'm assuming, but it's a pretty logical assumption.

So they ignore how far a team is from home? They know it'd be a competitive advantage for MU to be in St. Louis. They take it all into consideration.

Don't put words in my mouth just because you have no idea what you're talking about. I never predicted Mizzou would be a 1 seed because I have no idea what the committee will do. But I can absolutely see a scenario where Mizzou gets the 1 seed in the Midwest. That's it.

The committee tries to give the top 4 seeds an advantage in terms of geography, but it doesn't work perfectly according to the S-curve every time. If a choice comes down to having two top seed fanbases having to travel extensively or just one fanbase, they could opt for just one, like shipping UNC out to Phoenix.