***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance

• Made the postseason 10 times in the last 14 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

What would you have them do about the starting pitching?

You pretty much have to keep your powder dry to see if you'll get anything at all from Jaime Garcia.

I'd probably give Cooney one more start to see if the 87 with a rolling breaker is the best we'll get out of him. In the spring he was at 90 with much sharper breaking stuff. He also had some bad BABIP luck yesterday so perhaps that got to him. I think he's a better pitcher than the guy we saw against the Phils and someone capable of holding down the 5th spot.

If Cooney's not up for it, then I give Lyons a stab. I think he can give you a serviceable 120 innings if need be. Ideally he'd just be a replacement for Choate because Choate blows and Lyons would kick ass in that role, but he can start and do a fine job of that as well.

Meanwhile I'd be doing everything I could to keep Marco down for at least another month. A) It will allow us to save another year of service time by making up for the time he had on the MLB roster last year and B) it will give him time to develop a weapon against lefties. Fastball/Changeup pitchers can survive against off-hand hitters pretty easily. They can also get by against same-hand hitters if they're throwing 96 (that's how Wacha was so effective as a rook) but Marco's lucky to push 91 most days.

If he comes up with just his fastball/changeup, lefties will eventually start kicking his ass, IMO. I know it didn't happen last season out of the bullpen but I just don't see how a guy with nothing that moves away from lefties and not enough velocity to keep them inside conscious can sustain success against them. With Lynn already being pretty prone to getting hit by them, we can't really afford to have 2 guys that get punished by lefty heavy lineups; it makes you really susceptible to pure matchup losses in October.

He needs to be in Memphis working on his curveball or a slider. Maybe he could get by just throwing a cutter but cutter's work better up, IMO and his fastball can't function up and his changeup wouldn't work as well off a high fastball either so location would probably give the pitch away. Marco needs more work. Keep him in the minors polishing up his breaking stuff, banking innings and saving service time. Then in the summer months you can start skipping starts for Martinez and Wacha to keep their innings down and bring Marco up to take those spot starts.

If Garcia can give you healthy innings, you're just light years ahead of the game but if not, Lyons can hold down the fort until Marco is ready. And if this staff suffers another significant injury, we'll have no choice but to go outside the organization. At that point I'd go after the guy we just beat - Aaron Harang. Veteran innings eaters were going for way too much last year but maybe you could get him for someone like Rowan Wick, Steve Bean or Anthony Garcia.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You pretty much have to keep your powder dry to see if you'll get anything at all from Jaime Garcia.

I'd probably give Cooney one more start to see if the 87 with a rolling breaker is the best we'll get out of him. In the spring he was at 90 with much sharper breaking stuff. He also had some bad BABIP luck yesterday so perhaps that got to him. I think he's a better pitcher than the guy we saw against the Phils and someone capable of holding down the 5th spot.

If Cooney's not up for it, then I give Lyons a stab. I think he can give you a serviceable 120 innings if need be. Ideally he'd just be a replacement for Choate because Choate blows and Lyons would kick ass in that role, but he can start and do a fine job of that as well.

Meanwhile I'd be doing everything I could to keep Marco down for at least another month. A) It will allow us to save another year of service time by making up for the time he had on the MLB roster last year and B) it will give him time to develop a weapon against lefties. Fastball/Changeup pitchers can survive against off-hand hitters pretty easily. They can also get by against same-hand hitters if they're throwing 96 (that's how Wacha was so effective as a rook) but Marco's lucky to push 91 most days.

If he comes up with just his fastball/changeup, lefties will eventually start kicking his ass, IMO. I know it didn't happen last season out of the bullpen but I just don't see how a guy with nothing that moves away from lefties and not enough velocity to keep them inside conscious can sustain success against them. With Lynn already being pretty prone to getting hit by them, we can't really afford to have 2 guys that get punished by lefty heavy lineups; it makes you really susceptible to pure matchup losses in October.

He needs to be in Memphis working on his curveball or a slider. Maybe he could get by just throwing a cutter but cutter's work better up, IMO and his fastball can't function up and his changeup wouldn't work as well off a high fastball either so location would probably give the pitch away. Marco needs more work. Keep him in the minors polishing up his breaking stuff, banking innings and saving service time. Then in the summer months you can start skipping starts for Martinez and Wacha to keep their innings down and bring Marco up to take those spot starts.

If Garcia can give you healthy innings, you're just light years ahead of the game but if not, Lyons can hold down the fort until Marco is ready. And if this staff suffers another significant injury, we'll have no choice but to go outside the organization. At that point I'd go after the guy we just beat - Aaron Harang. Veteran innings eaters were going for way too much last year but maybe you could get him for someone like Rowan Wick, Steve Bean or Anthony Garcia.

Wacha seems to have made pretty great strides with the breaking ball so far this year, so thats good to see.

I don't know what Marco profiles as. If he can develop atleast a show me breaking pitch, I think he's a potential number 2 guy. If not, fringy 4. But, I don't know that lefties would kill him like you think but, hed have to be Maddux like and stay on the black. As you've mentioned, thats alot to ask.

Losing Waino hurts, obviously from many different perspectives. But the innings is the killer. If/when they get to October, Wacha/Martinez (if he keeps his shit together)/Lynn is a pretty solid 3. I think they view ElGallo as a top of the line guy, which IMO, he is. The Taveras thing seems to really have mentally scooped him for the better.

I would obviously love to throw Hamels out there in October, but to get him, it's gonna be costing more than I'd prefer. I think you gut it out till the deadline, see then.

If you need someone before then, it's gotta be more of a vet inning eater.

[O.city]

And I know they're in the division, but the Brewers have a few vets that might interest me.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Wacha seems to have made pretty great strides with the breaking ball so far this year, so thats good to see.

I don't know what Marco profiles as. If he can develop atleast a show me breaking pitch, I think he's a potential number 2 guy. If not, fringy 4. But, I don't know that lefties would kill him like you think but, hed have to be Maddux like and stay on the black. As you've mentioned, thats alot to ask.

Losing Waino hurts, obviously from many different perspectives. But the innings is the killer. If/when they get to October, Wacha/Martinez (if he keeps his shit together)/Lynn is a pretty solid 3. I think they view ElGallo as a top of the line guy, which IMO, he is. The Taveras thing seems to really have mentally scooped him for the better.

I would obviously love to throw Hamels out there in October, but to get him, it's gonna be costing more than I'd prefer. I think you gut it out till the deadline, see then.

If you need someone before then, it's gotta be more of a vet inning eater.

Hamels starts with Reyes and Piscotty. Piscotty doesn't bother me, Reyes does. He also has a $$ figure that prevents them from going after Zimmermann or Price in the offseason (and at this point I expect they let Heyward walk and target an arm, though Heyward could turn that around).

Marco can't be a 2 living at 90 mph unless his 3rd pitch becomes a truly plus pitch. I don't see that happening.

With a show-me breaker, he's a possible 3 and likely 4. Without it he's a possible 4 and more likely 5. I think the Cardinals hoped they could add another 2-3 mph to him after they drafted him like they did with Lynn and Wacha and that's just not going to happen. I'm just not as high on Marco as most are.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hamels starts with Reyes and Piscotty. Piscotty doesn't bother me, Reyes does. He also has a $$ figure that prevents them from going after Zimmermann or Price in the offseason (and at this point I expect they let Heyward walk and target an arm, though Heyward could turn that around).

Marco can't be a 2 living at 90 mph unless his 3rd pitch becomes a truly plus pitch. I don't see that happening.

With a show-me breaker, he's a possible 3 and likely 4. Without it he's a possible 4 and more likely 5. I think the Cardinals hoped they could add another 2-3 mph to him after they drafted him like they did with Lynn and Wacha and that's just not going to happen. I'm just not as high on Marco as most are.

Probably so. They seem to be higher on the other Lefty who's name escapes me, but both are a bit meh to me.

I'd like to hope Heyward turns it around. So far, he's pressing pretty hardcore. I think he'll get there, he needs to start seeing a few more pitches though. I'm not a big fan of either Zimmerman or Price in what they'd cost, I'd prefer Hamels, but overall, not a big fan of hte starting pitching market and it's cost.

I can't stand really letting Heyward walk though. I think he'll hit. He's had a bit of bad luck, but just seems to be overly aggressive right now trying to prove himself. I'd prefer they get a deal done with him sooner so he can relax and start mashing.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

Soon as Hamas and I start bitching about him, Adams starts mashing

Sounds like a Holliday/Frazod situation. Now you have to bitch about Adams every time we need him to get a hit. Karma/Jinx demands the tribute.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hamels starts with Reyes and Piscotty. Piscotty doesn't bother me, Reyes does. He also has a $$ figure that prevents them from going after Zimmermann or Price in the offseason (and at this point I expect they let Heyward walk and target an arm, though Heyward could turn that around).

Marco can't be a 2 living at 90 mph unless his 3rd pitch becomes a truly plus pitch. I don't see that happening.

With a show-me breaker, he's a possible 3 and likely 4. Without it he's a possible 4 and more likely 5. I think the Cardinals hoped they could add another 2-3 mph to him after they drafted him like they did with Lynn and Wacha and that's just not going to happen. I'm just not as high on Marco as most are.

Hummel said the asking price this last off season was Martinez/Reyes/Piscotty.

You and Hamas know your baseball stats inside and out. Being Cardinal fans you know the players really well. I'm just a lame ass homer fan.

But, I have seen Reyes pitch 2 games. The dude was lights out. He was like a man among boys. From this homers eyes, he looked like a #1 at the big show. Why would the Cardinals consider trading 6 years of control of a possible #1? Who would be worth that besides Kershaw?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

But, I have seen Reyes pitch 2 games. The dude was lights out. He was like a man among boys. From this homers eyes, he looked like a #1 at the big show. Why would the Cardinals consider trading 6 years of control of a possible #1? Who would be worth that besides Kershaw?

I'd imagine it would be because you'd be getting one of the best pitchers in baseball for 3-4 years for a High A 20 year old pitcher walking nearly 6 batters every 9.

Right now Reyes is a 20 year old Carlos Marmol.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Hummel said the asking price this last off season was Martinez/Reyes/Piscotty.

You and Hamas know your baseball stats inside and out. Being Cardinal fans you know the players really well. I'm just a lame ass homer fan.

But, I have seen Reyes pitch 2 games. The dude was lights out. He was like a man among boys. From this homers eyes, he looked like a #1 at the big show. Why would the Cardinals consider trading 6 years of control of a possible #1? Who would be worth that besides Kershaw?

The Phillies can ask that all day; they'd never get it. They especially know they couldn't know that Reyes is striking out 40% of the batters he faces and Martinez has made a relatively smooth transition to starting thus far.

That offer was never truly realistic and it certainly isn't now.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I'd imagine it would be because you'd be getting one of the best pitchers in baseball for 3-4 years for a High A 20 year old pitcher walking nearly 6 batters every 9.

Right now Reyes is a 20 year old Carlos Marmol.

You forgot to mention the opportunity cost associated with said veteran pitcher.

Again, if you can get Zimmermann at $28 million/season and hold onto Reyes in an era when mediocre pitchers can demand $12 million/season, then you're getting a lot of excess value there.

Sure, Reyes has some rough edges that need to be polished but his projection is legitimate ace. A guy like Kaminsky is probably limited to a #2, as is someone like Weaver (Weaver's more realistically a 3 with someone like Morales as a likely 4 or 5). There are 2 pitchers in the entire minor league system that have a chance to be a true #1 starter for us - one is Reyes and the other is Jack Flaherty.

The Cardinals absolutely cannot afford to pay retail for everything they want. Giving up high-end trade assets to get a 15% discount on Cole Hamels vs. what he'd make on the open market is a good way to get your ass kicked by the Cubs for a decade after that slew of bats they have come together.

The Cardinals will need to answer the Cubs young hitting with young pitching of their own. Unless you're willing to scorch the earth in pursuit of a 3-year window, trading away assets like Reyes is going to get you in trouble sooner rather than later.

[jd1020]

I wouldn't hesitate on trading Reyes for a Hamels caliber pitcher. Reyes will never make it as a starter in MLB if he can't control his pitches. I only know what I've read about him and I've read he has a 95ish fastball and a plus curve but he also pitches with mechanics that don't allow him to repeat the same pitch twice. If he makes it in MLB, it will probably be as a reliever and that will be 2-3 years down the road in which case you've got many drafts to find a replacement while you've got Hamels as an ace for this year and as a 2 behind Wainwright for 2 more years. Whether or not the Cardinals can afford him is a whole other matter.

After those 2 are done the Cards still have a 30 year old Lynn, Martinez and Wacha. So the young pitching talent isnt something to worry about.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I wouldn't hesitate on trading Reyes for a Hamels caliber pitcher.

I'm sure that the Phillies will take Bryant and Russell straight up.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'm sure that the Phillies will take Bryant and Russell straight up.

Are you suggesting that Piscotty and Reyes are on Bryant and Russell's levels in terms of prospects?

In a hypothetical deal where Hamels and Bryant are the keystones in a trade, the Cubs wouldn't be the team looking to even out the deal.

[duncan_idaho]

Hello Cards fans!

Side question after lurking through the Hamels trade questions:

Reuben Amaro has to be an Orioles fan, right? That's the only way I can understand why he thinks he's going to get the returns he asks for on his players.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Are you suggesting that Piscotty and Reyes are on Bryant and Russell's levels in terms of prospects?

In a hypothetical deal where Hamels and Bryant are the keystones in a trade, the Cubs wouldn't be the team looking to even out the deal.

I'm being a smart ass.