*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***

[duncan_idaho]

And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[carcosa]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

Give Salvy the rest of the year off.

save those knees

Yes

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

Give Salvy the rest of the year off.

save those knees

Agreed but....

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Nzoner

Unfortunately the next 5 or so will be probably be with Yost

5 years?

I think he's back next year, 2018 50/50, and no way he's the manager in 3 years.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

You seem to take great joy in saying this. Congrats.

Kansas City will definitely have to rebuild/reload following 2017, but the extent necessary will be determined by what pieces, if any, are kept.

If Duffy is extended (I would bet on it happening) and Ventura's light switch comes on, that's a big start in that time period.

Perez will continue to be a plus catcher for 2-4 more seasons. Position players beyond him will determine how good the team can be. Mondesi reaching his ceiling or close to it with the bat would be a major boost. Keeping a Moustakas (who I believe ages the best due to his power and simplicity of his swing) would also help.

As for 2017...

I just don't think you can realistically say "we're going for it" if Vargas and Strahm are both penciled into rotation spots. I like Strahm's potential as a starter, but he has to prove he can get guys out a second and third time over the grind. Vargas is likely to be steady and would be a quality no 5 if he is what he was before.

They have to add a starter in FA, IMO. Doesn't have to be the best guy available, but they need someone.

A trade would also work, though it would need to be with pieces that are expendable for 2017 (pretty much Dozier or Cuthbert, Jorge Bonifacio, and lower level Minor's guys).

Beltran is going to be a popular suggestion for DH due to his availability, ties to KC, and strong 2016. I would like that move a lot - good teammate, fearless hitter who can influence the guys around him in a lineup positively.


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Agreed. He's just here to piss on Royals fans. No matter, you can't take the last 2 seasons away.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by BigMeatballBillay

Enjoy next year because after than they will be bad for 5+ years.

Don't be such a pessimist. Dayton Moore actually seems to know a thing or two about baseball and how to build a winning organization. This is nothing like the wasted decades when Herk Robinson and Allard Baird were the GMs.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Beltran is going to be a popular suggestion for DH due to his availability, ties to KC, and strong 2016. I would like that move a lot - good teammate, fearless hitter who can influence the guys around him in a lineup positively.

I can't really see this. Beltran might be a good guy and a great clubhouse presence, but so was Raul Ibanez. There was a reason we didn't bring back Ibanez this year, and I think the same reasoning applies to Beltran: advanced age and declining productivity are a bad combination. Beltran is going to be 40 next April and he has played in only 39 games all year.

If the Royals want to use the DH spot on a slow baserunner who can't play defense, I'd rather see them bring back Kendrys. That's obviously not an accurate description of a 30 year old Carlos Beltran, but I've got to think it is for a 40 year old Beltran.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

I can't really see this. Beltran might be a good guy and a great clubhouse presence, but so was Raul Ibanez. There was a reason we didn't bring back Ibanez this year, and I think the same reasoning applies to Beltran: advanced age and declining productivity are a bad combination. Beltran is going to be 40 next April and he has played in only 39 games all year.

If the Royals want to use the DH spot on a slow baserunner who can't play defense, I'd rather see them bring back Kendrys. That's obviously not an accurate description of a 30 year old Carlos Beltran, but I've got to think it is for a 40 year old Beltran.

Played in 39 games? He played 138 and OPS 860.

Ill take my chances

[bsroyals54]

I'm afraid the bullpen has been infected by Soria's AIDS

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

I can't really see this. Beltran might be a good guy and a great clubhouse presence, but so was Raul Ibanez. There was a reason we didn't bring back Ibanez this year, and I think the same reasoning applies to Beltran: advanced age and declining productivity are a bad combination. Beltran is going to be 40 next April and he has played in only 39 games all year.

If the Royals want to use the DH spot on a slow baserunner who can't play defense, I'd rather see them bring back Kendrys. That's obviously not an accurate description of a 30 year old Carlos Beltran, but I've got to think it is for a 40 year old Beltran.

He's played in 39 games with the Rangers this year, in addition to 99 games with the Yankees before that.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

He's played in 39 games with the Rangers this year, in addition to 99 games with the Yankees before that.

Oops, I look like a genius here. I think I'll shut up for a while.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

Oops, I look like a genius here. I think I'll shut up for a while.

It's all right, made that same mistake before.

Beltran is still a better hitter than Morales, despite being 5 years older. If you examine their HR charts and overlay with Kauffman Stadium, they both would lose 5-6 HR, but they do get to hit on the road, so...

Beltran advantages over Morales:

- Better all-around hitter
- Strikes out less
- More dangerous from RH side of the plate
- Better runner (Beltran is still a 40 run guy on the 80 scale. Morales is in the 30 range)
- More versatile (Beltran could, if necessary, play some games in RF. Say you've got a tough lefty on the hill... could slide Cain to CF for those games and play Beltran in RF, with Dyson going to the bench, and Cuthbert or maybe Dozier DHing).

Other random thoughts:

1) I've been pretty impressed with Hunter Dozier's approach at the plate. He looks like he knows what he's doing up there, has a plan, and makes good contact. He actually reminds me a little of Stephen Piscotty of the Cardinals at the dish. Similar size, both guys with good approaches. Dozier probably has more a little more raw power and Piscotty has a little better hit tool

And, to further the comparison, Piscotty's 2015 AAA season, at age 24, is almost identical to Dozier's 2016 AAA season at age 24/25. .305/.359/.494 for Piscotty compared to .294/.357/.506 for Dozier. In the same league...

2) Don't look now, but long-shot SP prospect Josh Staumont may be lowering the odds he sticks as a starter. There's never been a question the 2015 2nd round pick had next-level stuff (plus fastball, plus-plus curve, solid changeup - saw some credit him with the best fastball and best curve in that draft). The question was if he could control it.

Well, he may have found something over the last month of his season, which was up and down. He strangely struggled at Wilmington, a pitchers' haven in a pitchers league, and was promoted to AA with an ERA north of 5 at A+. He continued to have starts with extreme control problems at NWA until the middle of August. Coming off back-to-back outings with 5 and 6 walks, something seemed to slick.

Beginning with his Aug 21 start, Staumont turned in six straight starts with no more than 3 walks in a game (4 - 2BB; 1 - 3BB; 1 - 1BB), while maintaining his big K rate (53 Ks in 34 1/3 IP). That's more than a 4:1 K:BB ratio, which is impressive.

He closed the season with a 12 K, 1 BB performance in the AA playoffs, against a very good lineup with some legit prospects.

If that streak can be the new normal and not just a hot stretch/trend, you're talking about a guy with No. 1 or No. 2 starter stuff.

[Great Expectations]

It'd be awesome to finally hit on a guy like that. How are the HS dudes from Indiana that we drafted progressing?

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

Don't be such a pessimist. Dayton Moore actually seems to know a thing or two about baseball and how to build a winning organization. This is nothing like the wasted decades when Herk Robinson and Allard Baird were the GMs.

He has no track record of doing it twice. Things came together for him this round, but we will see how he manages the reloading. In many respects it is harder than getting there. Time will tell.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

It'd be awesome to finally hit on a guy like that. How are the HS dudes from Indiana that we drafted progressing?

You know what Dr. Zaius says to Taylor at the end of Planet of the Apes?

Pretty much that.


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[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kgrund

He has no track record of doing it twice. Things came together for him this round, but we will see how he manages the reloading. In many respects it is harder than getting there. Time will tell.

He inherited a team with no present talent on the major league club, save for then-head case Zack Greinke, who was contemplating quitting baseball.

The minor league system had the No 1 overall pick in a weak draft, Bully Butler, and Alex Gordon. And absolutely nothing behind it - not even guys capable of being replacement players, let alone stars.

Reloading from this point is not going to be harder than that, because Moore is starting with a decent major league core of established players (think it will end up being Duffy, Ventura, Herrera, Perez, Gordon, Dozier, Cuthbert, Moustakas as proven "present" guys from 2018 on) and has a minor league system with a lot of talent at AA and lower.


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