*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***

[duncan_idaho]

And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[Prison Bitch]

Gotta hand it to the Tigers for quickly rebuilding their rotation. They made 2 big trades last year when they were out of it, trading Price for Daniel Norris and Cespedes for Michael Fulmer. Both are young pitchers with great stuff and their command (both have 3-1 k/bb rates their first year as starters in the AL). In 38 combined starts they have 4 fWAR and sub-4.00 FIP.


I was hoping they'd age out of contention, but those deals really re-tooled their team, put them into contention this year, and set them up nicely for 2017

[kcfanXIII]

Hard to be upset with the results considering. Losing Moose for the year hurt bad. The injuries were tough to overcome and when you add in Soria's 13 faceplants on the mound, it would have been a miracle if they made another post season... Ready for next year. Count down to spring training is on.

[sedated]

Originally Posted by fahrenheit

Soria had a direct hand in I believe 13 losses for the Royals this season.

Thir-teen.

I think you are thinking of blown leads, not losses. And if we are up more than 1 run in those, its not as much of an issue.

If Cain plays all of July, do we go 7-20? Royals were 58-45 with him in the lineup. If you add Moose's HRs, maybe those games were out of reach by the time Soria gets the ball.

I'm defending Soria, I feel dirty.

Great arguments can be made for three downfalls - injuries, Soria, 5th starter. Or one other good reason: all of Dayton Moore's offseason signings were turds.

[suzzer99]

2016 downfalls, in order:

1. Soria - specifically Ned's insistence on using him in every high-leverage situation he could find
...
...
...
5. Tie: Cain's injury, Moose gone, Gordo sucking

Even from the first game of the season, I was wondering - why doesn't Herrera get the 8th? He's earned it. But for whatever reason Ned was determined to give Soria every chance to prove himself, then redeem himself, and he sank our season in the process.

[ChiTown]

Wow. That was just an ugly game. Kelvin was not sharp at all. Gore goes in for Sal and gets picked off in the 1st pitch to end the game. Yuck

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by ChiTown

Wow. That was just an ugly game. Kelvin was not sharp at all. Gore goes in for Sal and gets picked off in the 1st pitch to end the game. Yuck

And, uh, Hoz ruining the game right before Salvys would-be tying hit

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by sedated

Or one other good reason: all of Dayton Moore's offseason signings were turds.

Ian Kennedy was a good signing.

[KevB]

Originally Posted by ChiTown

Wow. That was just an ugly game. Kelvin was not sharp at all. Gore goes in for Sal and gets picked off in the 1st pitch to end the game. Yuck

Herrera has struggled for him down the stretch. I hope he gets lots of rest over the off season. Max usage for 3 straight years for him.

[WilliamTheIrish]

It all started 2 years ago tonight.

SALVATION

[ChiefsCountry]

BEST. GAME. EVER.

[duncan_idaho]

Now that we can close the chapter on this season, some final thoughts:

I'll place the blame equally on three previously stated things:

1A) Injuries
1B) Soria and Yost's use of him
1C) 5th starter spot

If just one of those three things is not an issue, I think it's enough to overcome the other two problems and make this a playoff team.

If Moustakas is healthy all season and hits 30 HR from his position (which seems fair/floor estimate considering what he did last year, 26th-most HR in AL, that would put him right in that range of 30 this season), you can likely add 1.5 oWAR just from the HR alone. And he's a much better defender than Cuthbert, probably worth another 1.5-2 dWAR right there. Add 3 wins from that spot...

The team with Cain/without Cain is documented as being very different. It's a 91-win club with him on the field (good enough for top WC spot). It's a 66-win team without him. This actually kind of terrifies me. He isn't an incredibly durable guy, and he's a FA after 2017. They have no replacement for him in the system. Could be a real problem.

The rotation looked to have solid depth coming into the season. That fell apart quickly. Between the juiced ball and injuries, the fifth spot became a huge problem in a hurry.

Even just having A solid guy who can pitch 6 with a 4.50 ERA makes a huge difference for KC.

And then, Soria... Yost's insistence on using him was largely stubbornness, partly Soria being up-and-down. If he hadn't been excellent in May and June, Yost likely changes his use of him. Same with August. And if Hochevar and Davis aren't shelved for long periods, Soria's use probably changes a lot, too.

Looking ahead, I think KC's top priority is filling back in around the key pieces. If payroll can go up, bring Morales back, but do it with a commitment to playing Cain at DH at least one day a week and giving him an off day the next day.

The rotation has to be addressed with at least one guy you can plug in and get Vargas-like results from, and one more swing/lotto ticket type.

I think the bullpen will shake itself out. Soria will still be around, but I think Holland will be back and a potential contributor. A full offseason of rest for Herrera and Davis will help, too.




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[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

And, uh, Hoz ruining the game right before Salvys would-be tying hit

You checked out his ground ball to fly ball ratio? I don't think I've ever seen a first baseman put up a ratio like that. I also don't believe any current $20mil+/year players put up a ratio like that.

[ChiefsCountry]

Our defense replacements have been shit. Dyson, Orlando in the outfield. Merrifield in the infield. Another big reason we aren't in the playoffs.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Our defense replacements have been shit. Dyson, Orlando in the outfield. Merrifield in the infield. Another big reason we aren't in the playoffs.

Orlando definitely is not the defender Cain is. Disagree on Dyson and Merrifield.

Merrifield is a much better 2B than infante (more range, better arm by a ton, better on the turn).

Dyson is a very good defensive outfielder. Arm and range are both plus.


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[WhawhaWhat]

The final lineup: pic.twitter.com/MNgbTYWQkw

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) October 2, 2016