Clark Judge: Chiefs can't afford to take quarterback with first pick of draft

[Marco Polo]

Cover of cbssports.com:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/cl...-pick-of-draft

With two months to go before commissioner Roger Goodell steps to the lecturn to open the NFL draft, I have a prediction: The Kansas City Chiefs don't choose a quarterback with the first pick.

Yeah, I know, they need one like L.A. needs mass transit, and they'd take one if there were an Andrew Luck or Matt Stafford available.

But there's not.
In fact, there's nobody even close, and if you think I'm kidding you weren't listening to what Frank Scelfo, Jacksonville's quarterbacks coach, said about Blaine Gabbert the other day -- namely, that if he were in this year's draft he'd be the No. 1 choice.

That should tell you something about the field. It should also tell you what the Chiefs' first move should be -- namely, anywhere but quarterback.

With the first choice you don't draft for need; you draft the best player out there. You go in one direction and one direction only, and that's for the sure thing. You absolutely, positively must be sold that whomever you choose steps in, starts and becomes the foundation of your franchise for the next 5-10 years.

So tell me which of these guys fits that description: Geno Smith? Matt Barkley? Tyler Wilson? Tyler Bray? All have holes in their games, and none is worth choosing with the first, second or third picks.

So that makes Kansas City's options easy: Either stay where you are and choose the best player -- a pass rusher, maybe, or a left tackle -- or find your quarterback with a later choice. The bottom line is that the Chiefs must be true to their board, choosing the guy at the top ... and I can't imagine any of these quarterbacks is anywhere near there.

In fact, one guy I trust who studied this class of quarterbacks thinks it's so underwhelming he's not sure there's a legit first-rounder in there.

I'm serious.

That doesn't mean there won't be a quarterback taken in the first round. Of course there will. There will be more than one. It's a passing league, and clubs that don't have good, young quarterbacks can't wait to get their hands on one. So they reach, just as teams did in the 2011 draft when four quarterbacks went with the first 12 picks, leaving Andy Dalton to Cincinnati in the second round.

Dalton is the only quarterback in that class to make the playoffs his first two seasons, and there's a lesson there for Kansas City: Don't overdraft the position.

"We never reached (when I was at Dallas) -- except for one time," said former Cowboys executive Gil Brandt. "We were supposed to take Joe Montana (in the third round of the 1979 draft), but we had three veteran quarterbacks, and (then coach) Tom Landry said, 'I can't carry four quarterbacks.' So we took Doug Cosbie instead."

Cosbie was a decent tight end who was named to three Pro Bowls, but Montana was a Hall-of-Fame quarterback who won four Super Bowls.

Everyone knows the Chiefs need someone to replace Matt Cassel, but not with the first pick of the 2013 draft they don't. They can find one by trading out and moving down or by staying put and choosing a quarterback at the top of the second round, much as San Diego did in 2001. Instead of taking Michael Vick with the first selection, the Bolts that year traded the pick to Atlanta, then tapped running back LaDainian Tomlinson with the pick acquired from the Falcons and quarterback Drew Brees at the top of the second round.

The problem for Kansas City is that it chose the wrong year to bottom out. The 2012 draft was the time and place to find a quarterback with a high draft pick, with Luck and Robert Griffin III the first two choices. It's not just that they were the two best quarterbacks out there; it's that they were at or near the top of everyone's boards. So Indianapolis took the best player in the draft; Washington took the second best, and that's the way it's supposed to go.

Which means you can scratch Kansas City from choosing a quarterback with the first pick for one very important reason: That player should be the best player in the draft, and there's not a quarterback who qualifies.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Jerm

The people that advocate Joeckel or Star I simply ask....why?

WHY?!?

Neither of them improve this team at all...talk about wasting a pick.

I've yet to see a valid argument for either....because there isn't one.

Those people can't tell you why. Same way they can't tell you why NOT a QB...well...other than, "Did you see the pinstripe bowl?"

[Crush]

Also, I'm sure the Dolphins have no regrets drafting Jake Long over Matt Ryan and settling for Chad Henne in the second round. The same Jake Long who will probably not be back with Miami next year.

[Rain Man]

I was worried that having the #1 pick would make the offseason kind of boring. That hasn't happened. It does make the offseason kind of stressful, though.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

True. No kid is a can't miss really. But as positions in the NFL go, tackle is about as safe as you get. I sure know there are few teams that know how to draft a D-lineman.

And 2011 QB's proved they're the biggest crap shoot.

The Chiefs don't need "safe". The Chiefs need a playmaker at quarterback, period. Geno may not be the next Luck, but I'd be willing to bet he's better than Bradford, Dalton, and Tannehill. That sound good to you?

If we pass on Geno, there are going to be about 4 or five teams drafting a few slots right behind us that will be doing cartwheels. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that there would be no way the Raiders would let him slip past them. That would be fun, watching Geno rape our eyeballs out for the next decade while we watch Joeckel protect the Ricky Stanzi's of the world. That would be like taking Donald Stephenson one pick before Seattle took Russell Wilson, only on a much grander scale. **** that idea right in its filthy ass.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I was worried that having the #1 pick would make the offseason kind of boring. That hasn't happened. It does make the offseason kind of stressful, though.

Jesus Christ does it ever.

It's like every day we're almost going to win one of the games we lost last season.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Crush

How does letting Albert go and drafting Joeckel make the team better?

SIGN HIM AND MOVE HIM TO GUARD HE PLAYED THERE IN COLLEGE YOU KNOW

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by GoWalrus

Jesus Christ does it ever.

It's like every day we're almost going to win one of the games we lost last season.

That's a good way to phrase it.

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by Bowser

SIGN HIM AND MOVE HIM TO GUARD HE PLAYE THERE IN COLLEGE YOU KNOW

I really love reading your posts and imagining your avatar saying them.

[Bob Dole]

When was the last time there was an NFL draft when ANYONE said, "There isn't a first round QB in the draft."

That's right...the ****ing year KC gets the first pick in the draft.

SNAKEBIT!

tits

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

I really love reading your posts and imagining your avatar saying them.

"It looks like the Chiefs are going to take Star Lotulelei with that first overall pick....."

"BOLD STRATEGY COTTON LET'S SEE HOW IT PANS OUT"

[ThatRaceCardGuy]

I hope he hits a tree on the way home... doing 100mph while being raped by an abnormaly large and hung yetti

[bevischief]

This is freaking Ground hog day in this place.

[Bump]

Bradford was a sure #1
Alex Smith was a sure #1
Sanchez was a sure top 5
Leinart would have been a sure #1
Vince Young was a sure top 10


so, you know what? **** these experts cause they don't know shit.

Geno Smith is the shit, I'm gonna be pissed if we pass on him. BECAUSE DRAFTING LINEMAN GOT US HERE!

[Crush]

The tackle position is not a safe pick.

Do the names Tony Mandarich, Kenyatta Walker, Mike Williams, Robert Gallery, Tony Ugoh, and Jason Smith mean anything to the true fans?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

When was the last time there was an NFL draft when ANYONE said, "There isn't a first round QB in the draft."

That's right...the ****ing year KC gets the first pick in the draft.

SNAKEBIT!

tits

They're only saying it BECAUSE the Chiefs have the 1st pick. Guarantee you if the Raiders had the first pick....they'd be all about them drafting Geno. You'd read stories about how you can't let a previous bust stop you from trying again.