Mock 1/23/19

[kccrow]

Just having some fun for shits and giggles...

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Steve Spagnuolo, a former Reid assistant, and Jim Johnson protege, as defensive coordinator. (This is a carryover from last mock, so far 1/2 is true).

Chiefs beginning cap space of $42,967,636 using estimate of $190,000,000 salary cap per OTC (NFL stated range of $187.0 to 191.1 million).

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.13 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. The NFL has stated a cap range between $187.0 and $191.1 million, which means Tyreek's 2019 salary will be between $2.012 and $2.056 million. I will err on the high side at 2.056 for tenders and PPEs.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.336m. Both extensions done after June 1 (noted later).

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.05m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus


Cuts

SS Eric Berry: Eric Berry, despite his leadership, has been available far less than a player making his salary should be. It's time to move on and get guys in here that are available. The move is a June 1st designation which frees up an additional $9.55m in 2019 after June 1 and $5.50m in 2020 with dead money of $6.95m in 2019 and $8.00m in 2020. This cap space used to sign extensions noted above.

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

FA Acquisitions

DL Rodney Gunter (ARZ): Gunter has started to look like a good football player in 2018 and seems to have the work ethic to continue ascending. The Cardinals are in a huge state of flux with coaching changes coming and it will be interesting to see who they try to retain. While Gunter should be on that list, I've also seen alot of players hit the market during such situations that I didn't expect to. Gunter is a big guy at 6'5" 305 and he's got good quickness off the snap and speed to close. I have him valued similarly to Abry Jones(4-yrs/15.5m) and Justin Ellis (3-yrs/13.5m)
[I]4 years, $17.75m with $4.00m signing bonus and $6.75m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 4.00 2020 4.25 2021 4.75 2022 4.75

ED Preston Smith (WAS): Smith is a very solid run defender and gets a ton of pressure on the QB despite less than eye-popping sack totals. He's the type of edge player this team needs on the outside to help stop the bleeding in the run game. He shouldn't command the type of contract that Dee Ford will with his gaudy sack total that will make some GM's go gaga. I think a Whitney Mercilus-type deal taken to current cap dollars is his value.
4 years, $35.00m with $7.00m signing bonus and $13.40m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 8.25 2021 8.75 2022: 9.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on this board seems to want to admit and is becoming one of the better all-around corners in the NFL, plus he's still only 25 with his prime ahead of him.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

RB T.J. Yeldon (JAX): Yeldon is a nice complimentary back that really excels in the passing game and could be a sure-fire weapon under Andy Reid, especially given his penchant for using backs on screens and down the field. Yeldon may look for a starting gig but if there are no takers, he's going to have plenty of options to be part of a committee once again and there may not be a better fit for him.
2 years/$4.5m with $1.4m signing bonus and $1.9m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.75 2020: 2.75

S Andrew Adams (TB): I've been high on Adams since he left UConn and every time he gets a shot to play he does well. He doesn't have many starts with only 4 in each of the past two seasons, but he'd be a nice cheap safety to bring in and compete for a starting gig and at worst should be solid depth.
2 years/$4.0m with $1.0m signing bonus and $1.5m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.80 2020: 2.20

ED Shane Ray (DEN): Ray was on track to be a good contributor and at worst a hell of a situational pass rusher until a wrist injury and subsequent surgeries derailed his career. If he is indeed past that injury and can start putting muscle back on this offseason, then he could be a low risk, low salary, prospect as a situational rusher in KC.
2 years/$4.0m with $700k signing bonus, $1.1m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.10

Notes:
I fully expect the Vikings to cut SS Andrew Sendejo so that they can put a 1st round tender on SS Anthony Harris and then kick the can down the road a bit on Everson Griffen's contract by converting some salary to bonus money so they can re-sign some other players. That all said, if they put an original round tender on Harris, I'd put an offer in on him. He was incredible this year and is young enough to make it worthwhile.

Re-signings

FB Anthony Sherman: Sherman is one of the better fullbacks in the league and is excellent on special teams. His volume of usage offensively gives me pause, but if there's space to sign him then I'd undoubtedly do so.
4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley

Players Already Signed Notes & Guesstimates
Damien Williams: OTC released details of the Williams extension, noting that it was 2 years, 5.1m with cap hits of 1.73 and 2.83 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Initial reports were that the contract was for an extra 3 million, so I'm wondering if there are missing details on unlikely to be earned performance escalators of 1.5m in each year. Either way, unlikely to be earned don't count against the cap and this saves on my estimate by about 1.3m per.

Austin Reiter: The extension for Reiter was released a couple weeks back and for all intensive purposes has cap hits of 1.46 and 2.76 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Trades

The Chiefs franchise tag Dee Ford at the onset of free agency, then trade him to the Green Bay Packers along with their 2nd round pick from the Rams for a 2019 1st #30 (from Saints) and 2019 4th ~118 (from Redskins)

Cap Estimate Net of Transactions: 4.6m pre-June 1 / 6.1m post-June 1

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. LB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 239)
1. CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (6'1" 190) [f/GB - Ford]
2. OL Michael Deiter, Wisconsin (6'5" 304)
3. SS Juan Thornhill, Virginia (6'1" 205)
4. WR Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia(6'1" 215) [f/GB - Ford]
5. RB Elijah Holyfield, Georgia (5'10" 215)
6. FS Kareem Orr, Chattanooga (5'11" 195)
6. TE Kahale Warring, San Diego State (6'5" 250) [Comp - Logan]
7. WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (was RB) (5'9" 180) [f/SF - Streater]


Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, T.J. Yeldon, Elijah Holyfield, Darrel Williams
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Kahale Warring
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Gary Jennings Jr., Byron Pringle, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Deiter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie (OG)
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Michael Deiter (OT), Cameron Erving (OC), Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Rodney Gunter, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Justin Hamilton
ED: Justin Houston, Preston Smith, Breeland Speaks, Shane Ray, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
LB: Anthony Hitchens, Mack Wilson, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Trayvon Mullen, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
DS: Juan Thornhill, Andrew Adams, Jordan Lucas, Armani Watts, Kareem Orr, Eric Murray
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester

[BryanBusby]

And it's really a pointless argument from the start. The Chiefs weren't and won't be considering the move.

[ntexascardfan]

It's iffy that the Ravens are going to re-sign CJ Mosley. Harbaugh had a quote the other day that made it sound like he could be a casualty.

Sporttrac has his estimated contract at ~5 years/51 million.

What if instead of signing Darby to a big deal, we signed Mosley, lets go 5/55 to err on the high side.

Took a CB in the first, whether that's Deandre Baker,Amani Oruwariye, or Byron Murphy. I honestly like all three.

I really like our front seven in that set up and love the athleticism of Do'D and Mosley.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ntexascardfan

It's iffy that the Ravens are going to re-sign CJ Mosley. Harbaugh had a quote the other day that made it sound like he could be a casualty.

Sporttrac has his estimated contract at ~5 years/51 million.

What if instead of signing Darby to a big deal, we signed Mosley, lets go 5/55 to err on the high side.

Took a CB in the first, whether that's Deandre Baker,Amani Oruwariye, or Byron Murphy. I honestly like all three.

I really like our front seven in that set up and love the athleticism of Do'D and Mosley.

We're stuck with Hitchens for 2 more years. I know it's a sunk cost but I have a hard time talking myself into plowing that much cap into the LB corps.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Chargem

Did you mean Jaylon Ferguson? If so, I think if you go back a bit then KCCrow was drafting him in the 2nd but he got some hype to go late 1st early 2nd so he hasn't been featured in these drafts much recently.

He had a really good season, and will likely be a 1st rounder at this point which is why I quit mocking him there. He might be there close to where KC picks because of this draft being loaded.

You have Bosa, Ferrell, and Sweat ahead of him as weakside rushers and probably Gary and Zach Allen will be taken ahead of him as strong side rushers. You have Josh Allen and Polite definitely being 3-4 guys. So, I see him being down the list a bit. If the Chiefs get rid of Ford and they do go to a 4-3 (likely now), then Ferguson has to be on the table in round 1. No way he's sliding to the end of 2 at this point.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I ask again - what would you like to bet on this?

You can say it's not football related all you want but it doesn't have to be 100% BECAUSE of football. It is akin to the eggshell plaintiff rules - sure, Berry may have been genetically predisposed to this condition but if he'd have not had this thing surface had he chosen to be a schoolteacher, it's going to be called football related. It just will. You keep saying 'CAUSED' by football and that ain't how it works. Exacerbated or tangentially related to playing football is going to be enough. Your position that making it worse is irrelevant is just laughably ridiculous.

That's why these CTE cases still get such traction despite no true causal link ever being established. Oh sure, there's a ton of circumstantial linkage and we know that some people are simply going to be more predisposed to cognitive damage than others. An entire field of literature has come to the conclusion that there is SOMETHING already present in these severe cases that might not have surfaced but/for football but the bottom line is that the seed was there and all football did was make it debilitating. And in the end, all of these cases are coming down to "is there enough smoke to say that but/for football, this wouldn't have happened this way or at least not been this severe...."?

If you honestly think that you'll be able to convince an arbitrator that "Eric Berry, Schoolteacher" would've had this condition pop up to a degree that required surgical intervention....well you're being unreasonably myopic. Berry and his people will have an army of experts at ANY hearing saying "Yes, of course wearing football cleats and heavily taping ankles while making hard cuts can and will contribute to exacerbating this physical condition to the point that surgery is now necessary...." The Chiefs may or may not bring in experts of their own to argue to the contrary but if I'm a betting man, I'm betting that they just don't bother trying.

Because they will get their asses kicked badly on this one. You are applying a standard to 'football related' that is ENTIRELY too strict and in the process completely wasting your time.

Eric Berry won't be cut and the reason he won't be is that the Chiefs know that they're not going to get any traction at all on the argument that this injury isn't football related. Spend as much time talking yourself into the opposite view as you'd like, but it's not going to happen. Archive to your hearts content and we'll circle back on the 3rd day of the league year...

Get off the betting bullshit, for starters.

There's nothing "strict" about anything here, it's the wording of the contract. There's nothing about a naturally occurring bone protrusion that any reasonable person other than a ****ing imbecile would take to mean "caused by football." To think an arbitrator would be so ****ing stupid to not see the disconnect here is ludicrous at best. This deformity is not the same as a cause/effect relationship such as Ryan Shazier becoming paralyzed due to a hit on the field.

And yes, this condition is common enough and is made worse by "school teachers," wearing improper shoes just as much as Berry is. It isn't the Kansas City Chiefs fault that his body grew abnormally. It isn't football's fault. You're grasping at straws and, honestly, insulting any reasonable person's intelligence to think the contrary. The only thing you're 100% correct on is that his continued use of football cleats will exacerbate a naturally occurring condition, which could be remedied to a large extent by the player deciding to have surgery. This is the same as if someone has a naturally occurring heart condition could make his condition much riskier by running 100 yards down the football field. An arbitrator would not side with the player on termination of a contract for the heart condition either. If you want 100% legitmate proof that the NFL will side with the team on this, look no further than a recent case where the Saints were awarded the cap space and right to cut Nick Fairly for a found heart condition.

Done with this discussion.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by kccrow

He had a really good season, and will likely be a 1st rounder at this point which is why I quit mocking him there. He might be there close to where KC picks because of this draft being loaded.

You have Bosa, Ferrell, and Sweat ahead of him as weakside rushers and probably Gary and Zach Allen will be taken ahead of him as strong side rushers. You have Josh Allen and Polite definitely being 3-4 guys. So, I see him being down the list a bit. If the Chiefs get rid of Ford and they do go to a 4-3 (likely now), then Ferguson has to be on the table in round 1. No way he's sliding to the end of 2 at this point.

Yup. I want dis dude.
Could be that we get a high #2 for Ford...and if we could get out of there with Ferguson and Oruwariye in our first two picks I'd be excited.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Get off the betting bullshit, for starters.

There's nothing "strict" about anything here, it's the wording of the contract. There's nothing about a naturally occurring bone protrusion that any reasonable person other than a ****ing imbecile would take to mean "caused by football." To think an arbitrator would be so ****ing stupid to not see the disconnect here is ludicrous at best. This deformity is not the same as a cause/effect relationship such as Ryan Shazier becoming paralyzed due to a hit on the field.

And yes, this condition is common enough and is made worse by "school teachers," wearing improper shoes just as much as Berry is. It isn't the Kansas City Chiefs fault that his body grew abnormally. It isn't football's fault. You're grasping at straws and, honestly, insulting any reasonable person's intelligence to think the contrary. The only thing you're 100% correct on is that his continued use of football cleats will exacerbate a naturally occurring condition, which could be remedied to a large extent by the player deciding to have surgery. This is the same as if someone has a naturally occurring heart condition could make his condition much riskier by running 100 yards down the football field. An arbitrator would not side with the player on termination of a contract for the heart condition either. If you want 100% legitmate proof that the NFL will side with the team on this, look no further than a recent case where the Saints were awarded the cap space and right to cut Nick Fairly for a found heart condition.

Done with this discussion.

The Chiefs would absolutely cut him if they could. They won't because they know better. Ultimately you even know this because you're already backpedaling with your "The chiefs are dumb enough they won't cut him..." nonsense.

They know how dire their cap situation is and they know that Berry is not going to play to the level of his cap hit next season. If they could cull $9 million from their cap as easily as you say they can, they would.

They won't because because 'related' does not mean 'unequivocally caused by'. They know they'll get curb-stomped in an arb hearing.

He's not going anywhere and you can get as huffy as you'd like when someone points that out. It sucks, but it's the reality of the thing. Stomp and pout all you want, but you're wasting your time every single time you put together a mock that includes cutting Eric Berry and freeing up loads of cap space.

[ntexascardfan]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

We're stuck with Hitchens for 2 more years. I know it's a sunk cost but I have a hard time talking myself into plowing that much cap into the LB corps.

You know, I went back and re-read some of the commentary from when we signed Hitchens. Then I went and watched some of the highlights of his play with the Cowboys.

He might be a surprise next season if we move back to a 4-3. It's tough to believe that the player he was with the Cowboys just disappeared overnight when we signed him.

I think I'm back in the camp of taking a corner early, letting Dee walk, and figuring out the LEO either through free agency or the draft.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The Chiefs would absolutely cut him if they could. They won't because they know better. Ultimately you even know this because you're already backpedaling with your "The chiefs are dumb enough they won't cut him..." nonsense.

They know how dire their cap situation is and they know that Berry is not going to play to the level of his cap hit next season. If they could cull $9 million from their cap as easily as you say they can, they would.

They won't because because 'related' does not mean 'unequivocally caused by'. They know they'll get curb-stomped in an arb hearing.

He's not going anywhere and you can get as huffy as you'd like when someone points that out. It sucks, but it's the reality of the thing. Stomp and pout all you want, but you're wasting your time every single time you put together a mock that includes cutting Eric Berry and freeing up loads of cap space.

If he has surgery soon (and all indications right now is that he will), the whole discussion is moot. His salary is fully-guaranteed and he's not going anywhere.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The Chiefs would absolutely cut him if they could. They won't because they know better. Ultimately you even know this because you're already backpedaling with your "The chiefs are dumb enough they won't cut him..." nonsense.

They know how dire their cap situation is and they know that Berry is not going to play to the level of his cap hit next season. If they could cull $9 million from their cap as easily as you say they can, they would.

They won't because because 'related' does not mean 'unequivocally caused by'. They know they'll get curb-stomped in an arb hearing.

He's not going anywhere and you can get as huffy as you'd like when someone points that out. It sucks, but it's the reality of the thing. Stomp and pout all you want, but you're wasting your time every single time you put together a mock that includes cutting Eric Berry and freeing up loads of cap space.

[ntexascardfan]

Hey crow,

What do you think of Zack Moss out of Utah at running back?

He's a day three guy who I think would compliment Williams well. He won't make you miss in space, but he has good vision and balance...Utah would also split him out in the slot at times...so he's a versatile chip.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by ntexascardfan

Hey crow,

What do you think of Zack Moss out of Utah at running back?

He's a day three guy who I think would compliment Williams well. He won't make you miss in space, but he has good vision and balance...Utah would also split him out in the slot at times...so he's a versatile chip.

I like his one-cut and go style and his speed to gain the edge. Like him as a pass protector. I don't like his ball security when he gets to the NFL, he carries the ball like a loaf of bread. Don't like his power, or should I say lack thereof. I'm not sure he gets drafted, but he's worth a shot as an UDFA.

[Willie Lanier]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

It’s plausible that if Khalil McKenzie shows good development that he slides in at either LG or C, letting Erving play the other.

I think Khalil is going to be pretty good.

Agreed

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

If he has surgery soon (and all indications right now is that he will), the whole discussion is moot. His salary is fully-guaranteed and he's not going anywhere.

Crow thinks your an idiot because if he has surgery it will be to repair a malady that is not football related and therefore would not prevent him from being cut.

Technically, if it is not football related, he would be right and Berry could be cut before his salary guarantees. But technically if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle...

Wait...shit...does that axiom work anymore? I mean what if she has balls but self-identifies as my aunt? Or a unicorn? And if she self-identifies as my aunt AND a unicorn does she now have a horn in lieu of said balls? I'm really confused...

In either event, that's the crux of the entire conversation. Crow believes the Chiefs can say that since this is something of a naturally occurring deformity, the Chiefs can have it declared non-injury related and cut him even if he has surgery to repair it. He is arguing this vociferously with me even though I was almost certainly the first person to suggest putting him on the NFI list in the damn original thread about it. The problem is, it's just pie in the sky dreaming. It will absolutely never fly. I wish to hell it were true and I would absolutely love being out from under Berry.

But if that were a possibility, the Chiefs would've probably NFI'd his ass as soon as the diagnosis came out and then moved on. I reiterate - they know better.

[htismaqe]

Yeah, it came up in another thread yesterday in the Lounge. Here was my response:

I'm not 100% certain on this but this is my recollection:

Players can be added to, and removed from, the NFI list at any time. There's no limits like with IR. Also, players on the NFI list do not get paid like players on PUP and IR do.

While you may be technically correct that Berry CAN be cut, do you honestly think the Chiefs will? They could have designated him for NFI at any time last year and had nearly the same outcome as what actually happened (he didn't play all year and stood on the sidelines). All they would have saved is his weekly game check.

The Chiefs aren't cutting Eric Berry. It would be great if they would consider it but they've been uber-nice to him all along. I don't see that changing now.

To me, that's what it comes down to. It doesn't really matter if they CAN cut him, I honestly don't think they WILL.